中国与周边国家地缘经济关系的双向互动分析

贸易关系可用来刻画中国与周边国家地缘经济关系的双向互动。本文通过构建源—汇互动矩阵分析框架,借助商品贸易数据,从出口与进口两个断面,选取偏好率、市场占有率和集中度3个指标分析了中国与周边国家地缘经济关系双向互动时序变化。结果表明：①周边国家出口到中国偏好率整体上升,且高于中国出口到周边国家偏好率;②中国出口到周边国家市场占有率远高于周边国家出口到中国市场占有率;③周边国家从中国进口偏好率高于中国从周边国家进口偏好率,中国从周边国家进口的偏好率主要集中在周边发达国家以及部分东盟国家;④中国从周边国家进口市场占有率总体上呈增长趋势,且高于周边国家从中国进口市场占有率;⑤中国与周边国家地缘经济关系双向互动主要集中在日本、韩国和新加坡等发展经济体以及东盟中的经济发展水平较高国家。周边国家和地区经济发展水平差异巨大,需要进一步探讨中国与周边国家和地区的地缘经济合作差异和演化规律,服务于“一带一路”建设和提升“周边是首要”的地缘边际效应。     

京津冀协同治理的回顾与前瞻

京津冀区域治理是伴随三地协作发展的进程,从政府层面的管制转向各利益主体协调治理,从自上而下的竞争合作转向上下结合的协同合作的一系列有效应对举措。经过30多年的努力,学界和政府部门已经形成了较为丰富的京津冀区域治理研究成果。通过梳理自1984年以来相关区域的研究,尝试从时空维度厘清京津冀区域治理的研究脉络及其变化,剖析目前京津冀区域治理所涉及的治理模式、协调体系、以及形成的发展策略,为改进和提高京津冀区域治理效果提供参考。京津冀协同治理过程是学术界与政府的互动融合过程,其中政府的作用居主导地位。未来将在治理主体、治理机制、治理效果评价和文化、医疗、养老等领域的协调发展方面得到深化和细化。     

基于GPT2w模型化加权平均温度反演可降水量

提出一种基于GPT2w模型化加权平均温度反演大气可降水量的方法,并分析附加系统偏差改正的模型化加权平均温度对可降水量的影响。结果表明,基于GPT2w模型化加权平均温度反演的大气可降水量的精度与基于Bevis公式计算的加权平均温度反演的大气可降水量的精度相当;对GPT2w模型化加权平均温度进行系统偏差改正后,大气可降水量的精度有一定改善,但改善率不到1%。     

Relationship between stand characteristics and soil properties of two typical forest plantations in the mountainous area of Western Sichuan,China

There is uncertainty and limited knowledge regarding stand characteristics and soil properties of middle-aged pure forest plantations in the mountainous area of Western Sichuan. Plantation forests are almost exclusively planted as monocultures in the Pengzhou forest farm in the western mountainous area of Sichuan Province. This study aimed to assess the spatial and ecological characteristics of middle-aged Cunninghamia lanceolata(Lamb.) Hook. and Cryptomeria fortunei Hooibr. in the Pengzhou forest farm. The relationships and differences between stand growth characteristics and forest soil composition were assessed on the two forests planted simultaneously within the same area and exposed to the same environmental conditions. Cr. fortunei grew sparse, and slower than Cun. lanceolata. Principal component analysis indicated that the soil properties in the Cr. fortunei plantation were better than those in the Cun. lanceolata plantation. Redundancy analysis revealed that the differences in stand structure were affected significantly by the total nitrogen content and pH value. Thus, we propose that Cr. fortunei is planted for priority consideration in the subtropical high mountain area. Further, tending operations and application of fertilizers need to be conducted in Cun. lanceolata forests. Based on theoretical and experimental data, the present study explains why local farmers are more willing to plant Cr. fortunei, and thus provides a useful theoretical reference for the development of sustainable plantations in the future.     

Growth inhibition and oxidative stress in two species of marine diatoms exposed to 1-phenylethanol

1-phenylethanol(1-PEA)is a flavor extensively used in the production of co smetics,beverages,and food.The release of 1-PEA into coastal environments has aroused great concern.However,its potential effects on marine organisms are still unknown.In order to provide a better understanding of the ecological risks of 1-PEA in marine environments,this study determined the toxic effects of 1-PEA on two marine diatoms(Phaeodactylum tricornutum and Skeletonema costatum).The diatoms were grown in culture medium containing different concentrations of 1-PEA for 96 h.The contents of chlorophyll a,chlorophyll c,glutathione(GSH),malondialdehyde(MDA),and the activities of superoxide dismutase(SOD),catalase(CAT)and glutathione peroxidase(GPx),were measured at the end of the exposure period.1-PEA was shown to significantly inhibit the growth of diatoms,with 96-h EC_(50) values of 257.14 mg/L and 126.46 mg/L in P.tricornutum and S.costatum,respectively.In P.tricornutum,the levels of SOD,CAT,GPx,GSH,and MDA were stimulated only when 1-PEA concentrations were close to or greater than the 96-h EC_(50)value.However,in S.costatum,the activities of SOD and CAT,and the syntheses of two chlorophylls were inhibited even at an exposure concentration below the 96-h EC_(50) value.Taken together,these findings indicate a potential ecological risk by discharging 1-PEA into coastal areas and its species-specific toxic effects on marine organisms.     

Fish Assemblage Responses to a Low-head Dam Removal in the Lancang River

Dam removal is becoming an effective approach for aquatic biodiversity restoration in damming river in order to balance the aquatic ecosystem conservation with large-scale cascade damming. However, the effects of dam removal on fish communities in Asian mountainous rivers, which are dominated by Cypriniformes fishes, are still not well known. To determine whether dam removal on a mountainous river benefit restoration of fish diversity, we investigated the response of fish assemblage to dam removal using a before-after-control-impact design in two tributaries of the Lancang River(dam removal river: the Jidu River, and control river: the Fengdian River). Fish surveys were conducted one year prior to dam removal(2012) and three years(2013–2015) following dam removal. We observed rapidly and notably spatio-temporal changes in fish biodiversity metrics and assemblage structure, occurring in the Jidu River within the first year after dam removal. Overall, fish species richness, density and Shannon-Wiener diversity all increased immediately in above-and below-dam sites, and maintained a stable level in subsequent years, compared to unchanged situation in the control river. All sites in the Jidu River experienced shifts in fish composition after dam removal, with the greatest temporal changes occurred in sites below-and above-the former dam, resulting in a temporal homogenization tendency in the dam removed river. These findings suggest that dam removal can benefit the recovery of habitat conditions and fish community in Asian mountainous rivers, but the results should be further evaluated when apply to other dammed rivers since the dam age, fluvial geomorphology and situation of source populations could all affect the responses of fish assemblages.     

Examining the sensitivity of spatial scale in cellular automata Markov chain simulation of land use change

Understanding the spatial scale sensitivity of cellular automata is crucial for improving the accuracy of land use change simulation. We propose a framework based on a response surface method to comprehensively explore spatial scale sensitivity of the cellular automata Markov chain (CA-Markov) model, and present a hybrid evaluation model for expressing simulation accuracy that merges the strengths of the Kappa coefficient and of Contagion index. Three Landsat-Thematic Mapper remote sensing images of Wuhan in 1987, 1996, and 2005 were used to extract land use information. The results demonstrate that the spatial scale sensitivity of the CA-Markov model resulting from individual components and their combinations are both worthy of attention. The utility of our proposed hybrid evaluation model and response surface method to investigate the sensitivity has proven to be more accurate than the single Kappa coefficient method and more efficient than traditional methods. The findings also show that the CA-Markov model is more sensitive to neighborhood size than to cell size or neighborhood type considering individual component effects. Particularly, the bilateral and trilateral interactions between neighborhood and cell size result in a more remarkable scale effect than that of a single cell size.     

Analysis of Multiple Tourist Agents’ Symbiotic Relationship on the View of Tourist Enterprises Based on a Grey Correlation Model: A Case Study of Qinghai Lake,China

Tourism symbiosis is a social phenomenon consisting of many complex factors, and the reciprocal cooperation among multiple tourist agents at tourist destinations is the crux of the sustainable development of tourism. This study is from the perspective of tourist enterprises, and introduces the Symbiosis Theory of genecology. A quantitative evaluation is used to analyze both the equilibrium state of the combined symbiotic behavior routes and the behavior patterns of tourist enterprises with local governments, community residents, tourists and tourist enterprises around Qinghai Lake. The findings reveal: (1) the symbiotic behavior routes of the multiple tourist agents “E→G-R-T-E” in the Qinghai Lake area are constituted of intense symbiotic indications, while the maximum dimensionality of symbiotic interest of “E→G-R-T-E” is still in the state of disequilibrium and dissymmetry; (2) the symbiotic model of multiple tourist agents “E→G-R-T-E” in the Qinghai Lake area is an asymmetrically positive symbiotic model. It is proposed that, by establishing symbiotic mechanisms for guidance, decisions, supervisory control and profit distribution, the participation mechanism for multiple agents “E-G-R-T” can be further standardized. Moreover, tourist enterprises should be regarded as the primary agents to optimize the symbiotic model for “E→G-R-T-E” through the reinforcement of integrative supply and the construction of integrative effect, and finally promote the integrative symbiotic model of symmetrical reciprocity of the E-R-G-T model “driven by scenic areas, responsive to community residents, affected by local governments and enjoyed by tourists.”     

海洋有害藻华研究进展

浮游植物不仅是食物链的基础环节,也在生物地球化学循环中起着重要作用。然而,某些种类在一定条件下会过度增殖富集形成有害藻华(因造成水色变为红、绿、褐、金等颜色,所以俗称为赤潮、绿潮、褐潮、金潮等),结果严重影响当地经济、海洋生态系统、全球生物地球化学循环甚至人类健康。近年来,随着水体富营养化、全球气候变化等现象加剧,有害藻华(Harmful Algal Bloom,HAB)的暴发规模和频次呈逐年增加趋势,且相关研究已成为环境生态学领域的热点。本文主要以典型海洋HAB生物为线索,从物种分布、生物监测、主要影响因素、分子机制及防治等方面概述了近十年HAB的主要研究进展,总结了现有研究的优点和不足,并对未来HAB研究做了相关展望。近十年的研究进展主要体现在:(1)不断有新的HAB物种被发现或鉴定,HAB藻类系统分类也不断被更新;(2)鉴定、检测方法包括DNA分析、生物传感器研发应用等有较大改进;(3)藻类毒素生物合成通路的研究有一定进展;(4)在HAB生态学与海洋学研究持续发展的基础上,分子机制及现代组学发展较迅速。然而, HAB发生的关键环境诱因和生物学(特别是生化与分子)机制仍然不是很清楚,缺乏一个可用来预测HAB暴发的关键因子。笔者认为,一方面是因为HAB的复杂性、种类及生态系统的特异性,另一方面是研究缺乏系统性与完整性。因此未来有必要加强对每一个重要的HAB原因种开展系统、持续的研究,类似于生物科学领域里的模式种研究,并且有必要开展综合性的研究,如实验室单种培养、中尺度模拟及现场生态研究相结合,整合现代组学、传统生理生态学和现场实时连续观测等技术。     

基于浮标资料的中国东部海域最大波高特征分析

利用原国家海洋局2010—2015年的浮标资料,计算渤、黄、东海有效波高和最大波高的线性关系,并通过1992—2011年共20 a的数值模拟有效波高资料计算中国东部海域各月的2.5 m、4 m、6 m以上最大波高频率和最大波高月极值分布。结果发现:中国东部海域由北至南,最大波高与有效波高的比值逐渐增大;最大波高频率和最大波高月极值空间分布均由渤海、黄海至东海逐渐增大,最大波高频率的极值12月最大,4或5月最小,最大波高月极值9月最大,4月最小。其时空分布表明:受不同天气系统影响,夏秋季台风较多,容易出现极值较大的最大波高;秋冬季冷空气较强,虽然最大波高极值相对较小,但大浪持续时间长、频率大、影响范围广。