Turbulent flux observations and modelling over a shallow lake and a wet grassland in the Nam Co basin,Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau plays an important role in the global water cycle and is strongly influenced by climate change. While energy and matter fluxes have been more intensely studied over land surfaces, a large proportion of lakes have either been neglected or parameterised with simple bulk approaches. Therefore, turbulent fluxes were measured over wet grassland and a shallow lake with a single eddy-covariance complex at the shoreline in the Nam Co basin in summer 2009. Footprint analysis was used to split observations according to the underlying surface, and two sophisticated surface models were utilised to derive gap-free time series. Results were then compared with observations and simulations from a nearby eddy-covariance station over dry grassland, yielding pronounced differences. Observations and footprint integrated simulations compared well, even for situations with flux contributions including grassland and lake. The accessibility problem for EC measurements on lakes can be overcome by combining standard meteorological measurements at the shoreline with model simulations, only requiring representative estimates of lake surface temperature.     

Holocene climate evolution of the Ugii Nuur basin,Mongolia

In order to evaluate the Holocene palaeoenvironmental evolution of the Ugii Nuur basin, central Mongolia, investigations on chemical and mineralogical properties of lacustrine sediments were carried out on a 630 cm sediment core from lake Ugii Nuur. The interpretation of the record is based on a principal component analysis （PCA） of the elemental composition of the samples. The results show that lacustrine deposition started at 10.6 kyr BP. Low lake level conditions were identified during the Early Holocene （10.6-7.9 kyr BP）. The Mid Holocene （7.9-4.2 kyr BP） was characterized by generally higher lake levels and thus higher moisture supply, but it experienced strong climatic fluctuations. Arid conditions prevailed from 4.2-2.8 kyr BP and were followed by a stable, more humid phase until today.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation.     

Better air for better health: Forging synergies in policies for energy access,climate change and air pollution

Air pollution and its related health impacts are a global concern. This paper addresses how current policies on air pollution, climate change and access to clean cooking fuels can effectively reduce both outdoor and household air pollution and improve human health. A state of the art modeling framework is used that combines an integrated assessment model and an atmospheric model to estimate the spatial extent and distribution of outdoor air pollution exposures. Estimates of household energy access and use are modeled by accounting for heterogeneous household energy choices and affordability constraints for rural and urban populations spanning the entire income distribution. Results are presented for 2030 for a set of policy scenarios on air pollution, climate change and energy access and include spatially explicit emissions of air pollutants; ambient concentrations of PM2.5; and health impacts in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) from both ambient and household air pollution. The results stress the importance of enforcing current worldwide air quality legislation in addressing the impacts of outdoor air pollution. A combination of stringent policies on outdoor air pollution, climate change and access to clean cooking fuels is found to be effective in achieving reductions in average ambient PM2.5 exposures to below World Health Organization recommended levels for a majority of the world's population and results in a significant decline in the global burden of disease from both outdoor and household air pollution.     

The use of mycorrhiza for eco‐engineering measures in steep alpine environments: effects on soil aggregate formation and fine‐root development

Steep erosion‐prone and vegetation‐free slopes are widespread in alpine areas and are often discussed since they have a high socio‐economic damage potential. We present an eco‐engineering approach to test whether a mycorrhizal inoculum improves the establishment of hedge brush layers and in turn soil structural stability on a steep, coarse‐grained vegetation‐free slope in the eastern Swiss Alps. We established (i) mycorrhizal and (ii) non‐mycorrhizal treated eco‐engineered research plots on a field experimental scale, covering a total area of approximately 1000 m² on an east‐northeast (ENE) exposed slope, where many environmental parameters can be regarded as homogeneous. After a full vegetation period, we quantified soil aggregate stability, the formation of water stable aggregates and the fine‐root development. Our results illustrate that the establishment of brush layers without mycorrhizal inoculum increased aggregate stability significantly. Against our expectation and glasshouse experiments, the addition of mycorrhizal inoculum did not have a statistically significant effect after one vegetation period although it tended to increase aggregate stability. Analogously, root length density (RLD) tended to be higher at the non‐mycorrhizal treated site. Aggregate stability was significantly correlated with RLD. Studies on a bigger field experimental scale are inevitable, complement glasshouse studies and lead to a better understanding for a successful application of sustainable eco‐engineering measures in alpine environments. Based on our results and considering the fact that the response time in natural ecosystems may be slower than in laboratory approaches, we conclude that long‐term field studies are necessary to validate results gained through laboratory experiments. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Alternative Validation of a LC-MS/MS-Multi-Method for Pesticides in Drinking Water

The development of instrumental analytics such as the LC-MS/MS has made it possible to quickly determine many component concentrations in a single chromatogram. However, the validation of such multi-methods needs new strategies for robustness and optimization. Statistical execution of analytical tests is one tool that can be utilized to meet this requirement. A Central Composite Design (CCD) was utilized for the validation of an LC-MS/MS multi-method for 84 analytes. The experimental design includes six design variables and two non-design variables (response variables). Concentration, ionization temperature, dwell time, gradient, flow (of eluent), and spraying/curtain gas (continuous design variables) were varied on five different levels; the whole design encompassed 91 runs. To investigate the robustness of a LC-MS/MS method both peak sensitivity and chromatographic separation had to be verified. Therefore, two non-design variables were necessary. The distribution of the peaks over analysis time was applied to describe the quality of the chromatographic separation. The sensitivity was described with the signal to noise ratio (S/N). The evaluation of the measured data was accomplished with the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and the Response Surface Methodology (RSM). Three main effects (concentration, ionization temperature, dwell time) and no significant interaction effect were found for the response variable “S/N”. The variables of concentration, ionization temperature, and dwell time had no significant effects for the response variable “S/N”. The ANOVA of the response variable chromatographic separation abandoned no significant effects as well. Therefore, robustness of the method can be guaranteed for all non significant design variables.     

Microbial Degradation of Tar Oil Compounds under Different Redox Conditions

The microbial transformation of typical tar oil compounds such as acridine, benzo(b)thiophene, dibenzofuran, indane, and indene under different redox conditions was investigated in microcosm studies. Under aerobic conditions the inherent contamination in polluted soil as well as the added N‐, S‐, O‐ heterocyclic and homocyclic compounds were transformed predominantly apart from thiophene. 1‐Indanone was detected by RP‐HPLC‐DAD and GC‐MS as an intermediate metabolite from indane and indene. Under nitrate and sulfate reducing conditions indane, benzo(b)thiophene, and dibenzofuran were transformed in assays with the polluted soil samples from well B 65 and B 66 within 426 days, whereas they were persistent in assays with the highly polluted soil B 67. All heterocyclic and homocyclic compounds added to the non‐contaminated soil from well B 85 were not degraded under nitrate and sulfate reducing conditions, too. The results indicate that for the decision, wether natural attenuation can be implemented in the remediation of contaminated site, in addition to BTEX and PAHs especially the fate of further tar oil compounds in anoxic aquifers has to be considered.