The OSIRIS‐REx target asteroid (101955) Bennu: Constraints on its physical,geological, and dynamical nature from astronomical observations

We review the results of an extensive campaign to determine the physical, geological, and dynamical properties of asteroid (101955) Bennu. This investigation provides information on the orbit, shape, mass, rotation state, radar response, photometric, spectroscopic, thermal, regolith, and environmental properties of Bennu. We combine these data with cosmochemical and dynamical models to develop a hypothetical timeline for Bennu's formation and evolution. We infer that Bennu is an ancient object that has witnessed over 4.5 Gyr of solar system history. Its chemistry and mineralogy were established within the first 10 Myr of the solar system. It likely originated as a discrete asteroid in the inner Main Belt approximately 0.7–2 Gyr ago as a fragment from the catastrophic disruption of a large (approximately 100‐km), carbonaceous asteroid. It was delivered to near‐Earth space via a combination of Yarkovsky‐induced drift and interaction with giant‐planet resonances. During its journey, YORP processes and planetary close encounters modified Bennu's spin state, potentially reshaping and resurfacing the asteroid. We also review work on Bennu's future dynamical evolution and constrain its ultimate fate. It is one of the most Potentially Hazardous Asteroids with an approximately 1‐in‐2700 chance of impacting the Earth in the late 22nd century. It will most likely end its dynamical life by falling into the Sun. The highest probability for a planetary impact is with Venus, followed by the Earth. There is a chance that Bennu will be ejected from the inner solar system after a close encounter with Jupiter. OSIRIS‐REx will return samples from the surface of this intriguing asteroid in September 2023.     

Pristine stratospheric collection of interplanetary dust on an oil‐free polyurethane foam substrate

We performed chemical, mineralogical, and isotopic studies of the first interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) collected in the stratosphere without the use of silicone oil. The collection substrate, polyurethane foam, effectively traps impacting particles, but the lack of an embedding medium results in significant particle fragmentation. Two dust particles found on the collector exhibit the typical compositional and mineralogical properties of chondritic porous interplanetary dust particles (CP‐IDPs). Hydrogen and nitrogen isotopic imaging revealed isotopic anomalies of typical magnitude and spatial variability observed in previous CP‐IDP studies. Oxygen isotopic imaging shows that individual mineral grains and glass with embedded metal and sulfide (GEMS) grains are dominated by solar system materials. No systematic differences are observed in element abundance patterns of GEMS grains from the dry collection versus silicone oil‐collected IDPs. This initial study establishes the validity of a new IDP collection substrate that avoids the use of silicone oil as a collection medium, removing the need for this problematic contaminant and the organic solvents necessary to remove it. Additional silicone oil‐free collections of this type are needed to determine more accurate bulk element abundances of IDPs and to examine the indigenous soluble organic components of IDPs.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation.     

Connecting atmospheric science and atmospheric models for aerocapture at Titan and the outer planets

Many atmospheric measurement systems, such as the sounding instruments on Voyager, gather atmospheric information in the form of temperature versus pressure level. In these terms, there is considerable consistency among the mean atmospheric profiles of the outer planets Jupiter through Neptune, including Titan. On a given planet or on Titan, the range of variability of temperature versus pressure level due to seasonal, latitudinal, and diurnal variations is also not large. However, many engineering needs for atmospheric models relate not to temperature versus pressure level but atmospheric density versus geometric altitude. This need is especially true for design and analysis of aerocapture systems. Drag force available for aerocapture is directly proportional to atmospheric density. Available aerocapture “corridor width” (allowable range of atmospheric entry angle) also depends on height rate of change of atmospheric density, as characterized by density scale height. Characteristics of hydrostatics and the gas law equation mean that relatively small systematic differences in temperature versus pressure profiles can integrate at high altitudes to very large differences in density versus altitude profiles. Thus, a given periapsis density required to accomplish successful aerocapture can occur at substantially different altitudes (∼150-300 km) on the various outer planets, and significantly different density scale heights (∼20-50 km) can occur at these periapsis altitudes. This paper will illustrate these effects and discuss implications for improvements in atmospheric measurements to yield significant impact on design of aerocapture systems for future missions to Titan and the outer planets. Relatively small-scale atmospheric perturbations, such as gravity waves, tides, and other atmospheric variations can also have significant effect on design details for aerocapture guidance and control systems. This paper will discuss benefits that would result from improved understanding of Titan and outer planetary atmospheric perturbation characteristics. Details of recent engineering-level atmospheric models for Titan and Neptune will be presented, and effects of present and future levels of atmospheric uncertainty and variability characteristics will be examined.     

Evidence of space weathering in regolith breccias I: Lunar regolith breccias

Abstract— We have analyzed a suite of lunar regolith breccias in order to assess how well space weathering products can be preserved through the lithification process and therefore whether or not it is appropriate to search for space weathering products in asteroidal regolith breccia meteorites. It was found that space weathering products, vapor/sputter deposited nanophase‐iron‐bearing rims in particular, are easily identified in even heavily shocked/compacted lunar regolith breccias. Such rims, if created on asteroids, should thus be preserved in asteroidal regolith breccia meteorites. Two additional rim types, glass rims and vesicular rims, identified in regolith breccias, are also described. These rims are common in lunar regolith breccias but rare to absent in lunar soils, which suggests that they are created in the breccia‐forming process itself. While not “space weathering products” in the strictest sense, these additional rims give us insight into the regolith breccia formation process. The presence or absence of glass and/or vesicular rims in asteroidal regolith breccias will likewise tell us about environmental conditions on the surface of the asteroid body on which the breccia was created.     

Advances in radiative transfer

This review describes advances in radiative transfer theory since about 1985. We stress fundamental aspects and emphasize modern methods for the numerical solution of the transfer equation for spatially multidimensional problems, for both unpolarized and polarized radiation. We restrict the discussion to two-level atoms with noninverted populations for given temperature, density and velocity fields. Unfortunately this article was originally published with typesetter's errors: The correct publication date was 25 February 2006, not 3 January 2006. The content was not in the final form. The publishers wish to apologize for this mistake. The online version of the original version can be found at /10.1007/s00159-005-0025-8.