Understanding and Reducing False Alarms in Observational Fog Prediction

The reduction in visibility that accompanies fog events presents a hazard to human safety and navigation. However, accurate fog prediction remains elusive, with numerical methods often unable to capture the conditions of fog formation, and observational methods having high false-alarm rates in order to obtain high hit rates of prediction. In this work, 5 years of observations from the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research are used to further investigate how false alarms may be reduced using the statistical method for diagnosing radiation-fog events from observations developed by Menut et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 150:277–297, 2014). The method is assessed for forecast lead times of 1–6 h and implementing four optimization schemes to tune the prediction for different needs, compromising between confidence and risk. Prediction scores improve significantly with decreased lead time, with the possibility of achieving a hit rate of over 90% and a false-alarm rate of just 13%. In total, a further 31 combinations of predictive variables beyond the original combination are explored (including mostly, e.g., variables related to moisture and static stability of the boundary layer). Little change to the prediction scores indicates any appropriate combination of variables that measure saturation, turbulence, and near-surface cooling can be used. The remaining false-alarm periods are manually assessed, identifying the lack of spatio–temporal information (such as the temporal evolution of the local conditions and the advective history of the airmass) as the ultimate limiting factor in the methodology’s predictive capabilities. Future observational studies are recommended that investigate the near-surface evolution of fog and the role of non-local heterogeneity on fog formation.     

A Refinement of the McMillen (1988) Recursive Digital Filter for the Analysis of Atmospheric Turbulence

We present a refinement of the recursive digital filter proposed by McMillen (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 43:231–245, 1988), for separating surface-layer turbulence from low-frequency fluctuations affecting the mean flow, especially over complex terrain. In fact, a straightforward application of the filter causes both an amplitude attenuation and a forward phase shift in the filtered signal. As a consequence turbulence fluctuations, evaluated as the difference between the original series and the filtered one, as well as higher-order moments calculated from them, may be affected by serious inaccuracies. The new algorithm (i) produces a rigorous zero-phase filter, (ii) restores the amplitude of the low-frequency signal, and (iii) corrects all filter-induced signal distortions.     

Statistical Study and Prediction of Variability of Erythemal Ultraviolet Irradiance Solar Values in Valencia,Spain

The goal of this study was to statistically analyse the variability of global irradiance and ultraviolet erythemal (UVER) irradiance and their interrelationships with global and UVER irradiance, global clearness indices and ozone. A prediction of short-term UVER solar irradiance values was also obtained. Extreme values of UVER irradiance were included in the data set, as well as a time series of ultraviolet irradiance variability (UIV). The study period was from 2005 to 2014 and approximately 250,000 readings were taken at 5-min intervals. The effect of the clearness indices on global irradiance variability (GIV) and UIV was also recorded and bi-dimensional distributions were used to gather information on the two measured variables. With regard to daily GIV and UIV, it is also shown that for global clearness index (k_t) values lower than 0.6 both global and UVER irradiance had greater variability and that UIV on cloud-free days (k_t higher than 0.65) exceeds GIV. To study the dependence between UIV and GIV the χ² statistical method was used. It can be concluded that there is a 95% probability of a clear dependency between the variabilities. A connection between high k_t (corresponding to cloudless days) and low variabilities was found in the analysis of bi-dimensional distributions. Extreme values of UVER irradiance were also analyzed and it was possible to calculate the probable future values of UVER irradiance by extrapolating the values of the adjustment curve obtained from the Gumbel distribution.     

Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 1: temperature

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as “field” or “global” significance. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ^° grid resolution. Monthly temperature climatology for the 1990–2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. In winter and in most regions in summer, the downscaled distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones. A systematic cold summer bias occurs in deep river valleys due to overestimated elevations, in coastal areas due probably to enhanced sea breeze circulation, and over large lakes due to the interpolation of water temperatures. Urban areas in concave topography forms have a warm summer bias due to the strong heat islands, not reflected in the observations. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate fine-scale features in the monthly temperature field over regions of complex topography, but over spatially homogeneous areas even small biases can lead to significant deteriorations relative to the driving reanalysis. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.     

From Near-Neutral to Strongly Stratified: Adequately Modelling the Clear-Sky Nocturnal Boundary Layer at Cabauw

The performance of an atmospheric single-column model (SCM) is studied systematically for stably-stratified conditions. To this end, 11 years (2005–2015) of daily SCM simulations were compared to observations from the Cabauw observatory, The Netherlands. Each individual clear-sky night was classified in terms of the ambient geostrophic wind speed with a \(1\hbox { m} \hbox { s}^{-1}\) bin-width. Nights with overcast conditions were filtered out by selecting only those nights with an average net radiation of less than \(-\,30\hbox { W }\hbox {m}^{-2}\). A similar procedure was applied to the observational dataset. A comparison of observed and modelled ensemble-averaged profiles of wind speed and potential temperature and time series of turbulent fluxes showed that the model represents the dynamics of the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) at Cabauw very well for a broad range of mechanical forcing conditions. No obvious difference in model performance was found between near-neutral and strongly-stratified conditions. Furthermore, observed NBL regime transitions are represented in a natural way. The reference model version performs much better than a model version that applies excessive vertical mixing as is done in several (global) operational models. Model sensitivity runs showed that for weak-wind conditions the inversion strength depends much more on details of the land-atmosphere coupling than on the turbulent mixing. The presented results indicate that in principle the physical parametrizations of large-scale atmospheric models are sufficiently equipped for modelling stably-stratified conditions for a wide range of forcing conditions.     

Measurements of PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> ions and trace gases with the online system MARGA at the research station Melpitz in Germany – A five-year study

An hourly quantification of inorganic water-soluble PM₁₀ ions and corresponding trace gases was performed using the Monitor for AeRosols and Gases in ambient Air (MARGA) at the TROPOS research site in Melpitz, Germany. The data availability amounts to over 80% for the five-year measurement period from 2010 to 2014. Comparisons were performed for the evaluation of the MARGA, resulting in coefficients of determinations (slopes) of 0.91 (0.90) for the measurements against the SO₂ gas monitor, 0.84 (0.88), 0.79 (1.39), 0.85 (1.20) for the ACSM NO₃ ^?, SO₄ ^2? and NH₄ ⁺ measurements, respectively, and 0.85 (0.65), 0.88 (0.68), 0.91 (0.83), 0.86 (0.82) for the filter measurements of Cl^?, NO₃ ^?, SO₄ ^2? and NH₄ ⁺, respectively. A HONO comparison with a batch denuder shows large scatter (R² = 0.41). The MARGA HNO₃ is underestimated compared to a batch and coated denuder with shorter inlets (slopes of 0.16 and 0.08, respectively). Less NH₃ was observed in coated denuders for high ambient concentrations. Long-time measurements show clear daily and seasonal variabilities. Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis indicates the emission area of particulate ions Cl^?, NO₃ ^?, SO₄ ^2?, NH₄ ⁺, K⁺ and gaseous SO₂ to lie in eastern European countries, predominantly in wintertime. Coarse mode sea salt particles are transported from the North Sea to Melpitz. The particles at Melpitz are nearly neutralised with a mean molar ratio of 0.90 for the five-year study. A slight increase of the neutralization ratio over the last three years indicates a stronger decrease of the anthropogenically emitted NO₃ ^? and SO₄ ^2? compared to NH₄ ⁺.     

The Intertidal Burrowing Crab <Emphasis Type="Italic">Neohelice</Emphasis> (=<Emphasis Type="Italic">Chasmagnathus</Emphasis>) <Emphasis Type="Italic">granulata</Emphasis> Positively Affects Foraging of Rodents in South Western Atlantic Salt Marshes

The role of positive and indirect interactions is often crucial in communities with intense abiotic stress such as salt marshes. The burrowing crab, Neohelice (=Chasmagnathus) granulata, is the dominant benthic macroinvertebrate of southwest Atlantic marshes (southern Brazil to Northern Argentinean Patagonia), having strong direct and indirect effects on marsh soil and, in consequence, on marsh vegetation and primary consumers. In this work, we investigate if this crab indirectly modifies habitat use by the granivorous rodents, Akodon azarae and Oligoryzomys flavescens, by increasing nutrient availability and thus enhancing seed production by the marsh plant Spartina densiflora. The study was conducted at the Mar Chiquita Coastal Lagoon, Argentina (37°32′ S). Rodent frequencies in S. densiflora were positively correlated with crab densities throughout the low and middle marsh. Additionally, the highest quality of S. densiflora and inflorescence density was recorded at the highest crab densities. Experimental manipulation of crab densities shows that N. granulata indirectly enhances the performance of S. densiflora (e.g., decreased fiber content and C/N ratios) and increases density of seeds. Moreover, N. granulata also facilitates S. densiflora seed availability to rodents by concentrating them in sediment mound at their burrows entrances. Experimental rodent exclusions showed that rodent species used S. densiflora seeds, a variable positively related to crab burrow density. Thus, our results show that N. granulata drives the granivorous rodent distribution and the intensity of seeds–rodent interaction trough facilitative and indirect interactions in marsh community.     

Analysis of coupled Sr/Ca and Sr/Sr variations in enamel using laser-ablation tandem quadrupole-multicollector ICPMS

We present in this study results obtained with a laser-ablation coupled with both a quadrupole and a multi-collector ICPMS. The simultaneous in situ Sr/Ca and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr measurements along growth profiles in enamel allows the concomitant diet and migration patterns in mammals to be reconstructed. Aliquots of the powdered international standard NIST “SRM1400 Bone Ash” with certified Sr and Ca contents, was sintered at high pressure and temperature and was adopted as the reference material for external reproducibility and calibration of the results. A total of 145 coupled elemental and isotopic measurements of herbivores enamel from the Kruger National Park, South Africa, gives intra-tooth Sr/Ca and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr variations that are well larger than external reproducibility. Sr/Ca profiles systematically decrease from the dentine-enamel junction to the outer enamel whereas ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr profiles exhibit variable patterns. Using a simple geometric model of hypsodont teeth growth, we demonstrate that a continuous recording of the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr variations can be reconstructed in the tooth length axis. This suggests that the mobility of a mammal can be reconstructed over a period of more than a year with a resolution of a ten of days, by sampling enamel along growth profiles. Our geometric model of hypsodont teeth growth predicts that an optimal distance between two successive profiles is equal to the enamel thickness. However, this model does not apply to the Sr/Ca signal which is likely to be altered during the enamel maturation stage due to differential maturation processes along enamel thickness. Here, the observed constant decreases of the Sr/Ca ratios in the ungulates of Kruger National Park suggests that they did not changed of diet, while some of them were migrating.     

Impact of India–Asia collision on SE Asia: The record in Borneo

Borneo occupies a central position in the Sundaland promontory of SE Asia. It has a complex Cenozoic geological history of sedimentation and deformation which began at about the same time that India is commonly suggested to have started to collide with Asia. Some tectonic reconstructions of east and SE Asia interpret a large SE Asian block with Borneo at its centre which has been rotated clockwise and displaced southwards along major strike–slip faults during the Cenozoic due to the indentation of Asia by India. However, the geological history of Borneo is not consistent with the island simply forming part of a large block extruded from Asia. The large clockwise rotations and displacements predicted by the indentor model for Borneo are incompatible with palaeomagnetic evidence and there is no evidence that the major strike–slip faults of the Asian mainland reach Borneo. Seismic tomography shows there is a deep high velocity anomaly in the lower mantle beneath SE Asia interpreted as subducted lithosphere but it can be explained just as well by alternative tectonic models as by the indentor model. Very great thicknesses of Cenozoic sediments are present in Borneo and circum-Borneo basins, and large amounts of sediment were transported to the Crocker turbidite fan of north Borneo from the Eocene to the Early Miocene, but all evidence indicates that these sediments were derived from local sources and not from distant sources in Asia elevated by India–Asia collision. The Cenozoic geological history of Borneo records subduction of the proto-South China Sea and Miocene collision after this ocean lithosphere was eliminated, and a variety of effects resulting from long-term subduction beneath SE Asia. There is little to indicate that India–Asia collision has influenced the Cenozoic geological record in Borneo.     

Prograde garnet growth along complex <Emphasis Type="Italic">P–T–t</Emphasis> paths: results from numerical experiments on polyphase garnet from the Wölz Complex (Austroalpine basement)

Garnet in metapelites from the Wölz Complex of the Austroalpine crystalline basement east of the Tauern Window characteristically consists of two growth phases, which preserve a comprehensive record of the geothermal history during polymetamorphism. From numerical modelling of garnet formation, detailed information on the pressure–temperature–time (P–T–t) evolution during prograde metamorphism is obtained. In that respect, the combined influences of chemical fractionation associated with garnet growth, modification of the original growth zoning through intragranular diffusion and the nucleation history on the chemical zoning of garnet as P and T change during growth are considered. The concentric chemical zoning observed in garnet and the homogenous rock matrix, which is devoid of chemical segregation, render the simulation of garnet growth through successive equilibrium states reliable. Whereas the first growth phase of garnet was formed at isobaric conditions of ～3.8 kbar at low heating/cooling rates, the second growth phase grew along a Barrovian P–T path marked with a thermal peak of ～625°C at ～10 kbar and a maximum in P of ～10.4 kbar at ～610°C. For the heating rate during the growth of the second phase of garnet, average rates faster than 50°C Ma^?1 are obtained. From geochronological investigations the first growth phase of garnet from the Wölz Complex pertains to the Permian metamorphic event. The second growth phase grew in the course of Eo-Alpine metamorphism during the Cretaceous.