On the use of ‘first spotless day’ as a predictor for sunspot minimum

Defining the first spotless day of a sunspot cycle as the first day without spots relative to sunspot maximum during the decline of the solar cycle, one finds that the timing of that occurrence can be used as a predictor for the occurrence of solar minimum of the following cycle. For cycle 22, the first spotless day occurred in April 1994, based on the International sunspot number index, although other indices (Boulder and American) indicated the first spotless day to have occurred earlier (September 1993). For cycles 9–14, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 72 months, having a range of 62–82 months; for cycles 15–21, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 35 months, having a range of 27–40 months. Similarly, the timing of first spotless day relative to sunspot minimum and maximum for the same cycle reveals that it followed minimum (maximum) by about 69 (18) months during cycles 9–14 and by about 90 (44) months during cycles 15–21. Accepting April 1994 as the month of first spotless day occurrence for cycle 22, one finds that it occurred 91 months into the cycle and 57 months following sunspot maximum. Such values indicate that its behavior more closely matches that found for cycles 15–21 rather than for cycles 9–14. Therefore, one infers that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 will occur in about 2–3 years, or about April 1996 to April 1997. Accepting the earlier date of first spotless day occurrence indicates that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 could come several months earlier, perhaps late 1995.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Coronal changes associated with a disappearing filament

This paper describes Skylab/ATM observations of the events associated with a disappearing filament near the center of the solar disk on January 18, 1974. As the filament disappeared, the nearby coronal plasma was heated to a temperature in excess of 6 × 10⁶K. A change in the pattern of coronal emission occurred during the 11/3 hr period that the soft X-ray flux was increasing. This change seemed to consist of the formation and apparent expansion of a loop-like coronal structure which remained visible until its passage around the west limb several days later. The time history of the X-ray and microwave radio flux displayed the well-known gradual-rise-and-fall (GRF) signature, suggesting that this January 18 event may have properties characteristic of a wide class of X-ray and radio events.In pursuit of this idea, we examined other spatially-resolved Skylab/ATM observations of long-duration X-ray events to see what characteristics they may have in common. Nineteen similar long-lived SOLRAD X-ray events having either the GRF or post-burst radio classification occurred during the nine-month Skylab mission. Sixteen of these occurred during HAO/ATM coronagraph observations, and 7 of these 16 events occurred during observations with both the NRL/ATM slitless spectrograph and the MSFC-A/ATM X-ray telescope. The tabulation of these events suggests that all long-lived SOLRAD X-ray bursts involve transients in the outer corona and that at least two-thirds of the bursts involve either the eruption or major activation of a prominence. Also, these observations indicate that long-lived SOLARD events are characterized by the appearance of new loops of emission in the lower corona during the declining phase of the X-ray emission. However, sometimes these loops disappear after the X-ray event (like the post-flare loops associated with a sporadic coronal condensation), and sometimes the loops remain indefinitely (like the emission from a permanent coronal condensation).Visiting Scientist, Kitt Peak National Observatory, Tucson, Ariz. 85726, U.S.A. operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation.Presently located at NASA/MSFC, Space Sciences Laboratory, Marshall Space Flight Center, Ala. 35812, U. S.A.     

Changes in the circulation of Tampa Bay due to Hurricane Frances as recorded by ADCP measurements and reproduced with a numerical Ocean model

Hurricane Frances is shown to greatly alter the hydrodynamics within Tampa Bay, Florida, and the exchange of water with the Gulf of Mexico in both observational data and a realistic numerical circulation model of the Tampa Bay estuary. Hurricane Frances hit Tampa Bay on September 5, 2004 with surface winds peaking twice near 22 m s⁻¹. There were three stages to the hydrodynamic effect of Frances on Tampa Bay. The first stage included the approach of Frances up to the first wind peak. The winds were to the south and southeast. During this stage sea level was maintained below mean sea level (MSL) and the residual current (demeaned, detided) was weak. The second stage began as the winds turned to the east and northeast, as the eye passed near the bay, and ended as the second wind peak appeared. During this stage the residual currents were strongly positive (into the bay), raising sea level to 1.2 m above MSL at St. Petersburg. The measured residual circulation peaked at over +0.7 m s⁻¹ near the surface. The model shows this velocity peak yielded a maximum volume flux into the bay of +44,227 m³ s⁻¹, displacing a total volume of 1.5 billion m³ in just a few hours, about 42% of the bay volume. In the third stage a strong negative flow developed as the wind and sea level relaxed to near normal levels. The ADCP measured a peak outflow of −0.8 m s⁻¹ during this time. Model results indicate a maximum flux of −37,575 m³ s⁻¹, and that it took about 50 h to drain the extra volume driven into the bay by Hurricane Frances.     

Monte Carlo simulation of mixing in Ca3Fe2Ge3O12–Ca4Ge4O12 garnets and implications for the thermodynamic stability of pyrope–majorite solid solution

Static lattice energy calculations, based on empirical pair potentials, were performed for a large set of structures differing in the arrangement of octahedral cations within the garnet 2 × 2 × 2 supercell. The compositions of these structures varied between Ca₃Fe₂Ge₃O₁₂ and Ca₄Ge₄O₁₂. The energies were cluster expanded using pair and quaternary terms. The derived ordering constants were used to constrain Monte Carlo simulations of temperature-dependent mixing properties in the ranges of 1,073–3,673 K and 0–10 GPa. The free energies of mixing were calculated using the method of thermodynamic integration. The calculations predict a wide miscibility gap between Fe-rich (cubic) and Fe-pure (tetragonal) garnets consistent with recent experimental observations of Iezzi et al. (Phys Chem Miner 32:197–207, 2005). It is shown that the miscibility gap arises due to a very strong cation ordering at the Fe-pure composition, driven by the charge difference between Ca²⁺ and Ge⁴⁺ cations. The structural and thermodynamic analogies between Ca–Ge and Mg–Si systems suggest that a similar miscibility gap should exist between pyrope and Mg–Si-majorite.     

The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.     

Mixing and differentiation in the Oruanui rhyolitic magma, Taupo, New Zealand: evidence from volatiles and trace elements in melt inclusions

Large pyroclastic rhyolites are snapshots of evolving magma bodies, and preserved in their eruptive pyroclasts is a record of evolution up to the time of eruption. Here we focus on the conditions and processes in the Oruanui magma that erupted at 26.5 ka from Taupo Volcano, New Zealand. The 530 km³ (void-free) of material erupted in the Oruanui event is comparable in size to the Bishop Tuff in California, but differs in that rhyolitic pumice and glass compositions, although variable, did not change systematically with eruption order. We measured the concentrations of H₂O, CO₂ and major and trace elements in zoned phenocrysts and melt inclusions from individual pumice clasts covering the range from early to late erupted units. We also used cathodoluminescence imaging to infer growth histories of quartz phenocrysts. For quartz-hosted inclusions, we studied both fully enclosed melt inclusions and reentrants (connecting to host melt through a small opening). The textures and compositions of inclusions and phenocrysts reflect complex pre-eruptive processes of incomplete assimilation/partial melting, crystallization differentiation, magma mixing and gas saturation. ‘Restitic’ quartz occurs in seven of eight pumice clasts studied. Variations in dissolved H₂O and CO₂ in quartz-hosted melt inclusions reflect gas saturation in the Oruanui magma and crystallization depths of ∼3.5–7 km. Based on variations of dissolved H₂O and CO₂ in reentrants, the amount of exsolved gas at the beginning of eruption increased with depth, corresponding to decreasing density with depth. Pre-eruptive mixing of magma with varying gas content implies variations in magma bulk density that would have driven convective mixing. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at and is accessible for authorized users.     

G-Probe-1 - An International Proficiency Test for Microprobe Laboratories - Report on Round 1 : February 2002 (TB-1 Basaltic Glass)

Results are presented for round one of a new international proficiency testing programme designed for microprobe laboratories involved in the routine analysis of silicate minerals. The sample used for this round was TB-1, a basaltic glass fused and prepared by the USGS. Thirty nine laboratories contributed data to this round, the majority of major element results being undertaken by EPMA and the majority of trace elements by LA-ICP-MS. Assigned values were derived from the median of results produced by nine selected laboratories that analysed powdered material by conventional ICP-MS, INAA and XRF techniques using bulk powders of the sample. Submitted microprobe results were evaluated using a target precision calculated using the Horwitz function, adopting the same criteria as those used for "applied" geochemistry laboratories in the companion GeoPT proficiency testing programme for laboratories involved in the routine bulk analysis of silicate rocks. An evaluation of results from participating microprobe laboratories indicated that overall, data were compatible with this precision function. A comparison between the performance of bulk and microprobe techniques used in the analysis of the basaltic glass showed remarkably good agreement, with significant bias only observed for the major oxide MgO.     

The last British Ice Sheet: growth, maximum extent and deglaciation

The growth, maximum lateral extent and deglaciation of the last British Ice Sheet (BIS) has been reconstructed using sediment, faunal and stable isotope methods from a sedimentary record recovered from the Barra Fan, north-west Scotland. During a phase of ice sheet expansion postdating the early "warmth" of Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3), ice rafting events, operating with a cyclicity of approximately 1500 years, are interspersed between warm, carbonate-rich interstadials operating with a strong Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cyclicity. The data suggest that the BIS expanded westwards to the outer continental shelf break shortly after 30 Ky BP (before present) and remained there until about 15 Ky BP. Within MIS 2, as the ice sheet grew to its maximum extent, the pronounced periodicities which characterize MIS 3 are lost from the record. The exact timing of the Last Glacial Maximum is difficult to define in this record; but maxima in Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral) ع⁸O are observed between 21-17 Ky BP. A massive discharge of ice-rafted detritus, coincident with Heinrich event 1, is observed at about 16 Ky BP. Deglaciation of the margin is complete by about 15 Ky BP and surface waters warm rapidly after this date.     

Deep submarine pyroclastic eruptions: theory and predicted landforms and deposits

Submarine pyroclastic eruptions at depths greater than a few hundred meters are generally considered to be rare or absent because the pressure of the overlying water column is sufficient to suppress juvenile gas exsolution so that magmatic disruption and pyroclastic activity do not occur. Consideration of detailed models of the ascent and eruption of magma in a range of sea floor environments shows, however, that significant pyroclastic activity can occur even at depths in excess of 3000 m. In order to document and illustrate the full range of submarine eruption styles, we model several possible scenarios for the ascent and eruption of magma feeding submarine eruptions: (1) no gas exsolution; (2) gas exsolution but no magma disruption; (3) gas exsolution, magma disruption, and hawaiian-style fountaining; (4) volatile content builds up in the magma reservoir leading to hawaiian eruptions resulting from foam collapse; (5) magma volatile content insufficient to cause fragmentation normally but low rise speed results in strombolian activity; and (6) volatile content builds up in the top of a dike leading to vulcanian eruptions. We also examine the role of bulk-interaction steam explosivity and contact-surface steam explosivity as processes contributing to volcaniclastic formation in these environments. We concur with most earlier workers that for magma compositions typical of spreading centers and their vicinities, the most likely circumstance is the quiet effusion of magma with minor gas exsolution, and the production of somewhat vesicular pillow lavas or sheet flows, depending on effusion rate. The amounts by which magma would overshoot the vent in these types of eruptions would be insufficient to cause any magma disruption. The most likely mechanism of production of pyroclastic deposits in this environment is strombolian activity, due to the localized concentration of volatiles in magma that has a low rise rate; magmatic gas collects by bubble coalescence, and ascends in large isolated bubbles which disrupt the magma surface in the vent, producing localized blocks, bombs, and pyroclastic deposits. Another possible mode of occurrence of pyroclastic deposits results from vulcanian eruptions; these deposits, being characterized by the dominance of angular blocks of country rocks deposited in the vicinity of a crater, should be easily distinguishable from strombolian and hawaiian eruptions. However, we stress that a special case of the hawaiian eruption style is likely to occur in the submarine environment if magmatic gas buildup occurs in a magma reservoir by the upward drift of gas bubbles. In this case, a layer of foam will build up at the top of the reservoir in a sufficient concentration to exceed the volatile content necessary for disruption and hawaiian-style activity; the deposits and landforms are predicted to be somewhat different from those of a typical primary magmatic volatile-induced hawaiian eruption. Specifically, typical pyroclast sizes might be smaller; fountain heights may exceed those expected for the purely magmatic hawaiian case; cooling of descending pyroclasts would be more efficient, leading to different types of proximal deposits; and runout distances for density flows would be greater, potentially leading to submarine pyroclastic deposits surrounding vents out to distances of tens of meters to a kilometer. In addition, flows emerging after the evacuation of the foam layer would tend to be very depleted in volatiles, and thus extremely poor in vesicles relative to typical flows associated with hawaiian-style eruptions in the primary magmatic gas case. We examine several cases of reported submarine volcaniclastic deposits found at depths as great as 3000 m and conclude that submarine hawaiian and strombolian eruptions are much more common than previously suspected at mid-ocean ridges. Furthermore, the latter stages of development of volcanic edifices (seamounts) formed in submarine environments are excellent candidates for a wide range of submarine pyroclastic activity due not just to the effects of decreasing water depth, but also to: (1) the presence of a summit magma reservoir, which favors the buildup of magmatic foams (enhancing hawaiian-style activity) and episodic dike emplacement (which favors strombolian-style eruptions); and (2) the common occurrence of alkalic basalts, the CO₂ contents of which favor submarine explosive eruptions at depths greater than tholeiitic basalts. These models and predictions can be tested with future sampling and analysis programs and we provide a checklist of key observations to help distinguish among the eruption styles.