This paper uses the expected utility under risk hypothesis to develop a new approach to GIS modeling for land use suitability analysis with competitive learning algorithms (CLG-LUSA). It uses Kohonen’s Self Organized Maps (SOM) and Linear Vector Quantization (LVQ) among other tools to create comprehensive ordering of high number of options. The model uses decision makers preferred locations and environmental data to construct a manifold of the decision’s attribute space. Then, decision and uncertainty maps are derived from this manifold. An application example is provided using the selection of suitable environments for coconut development in a municipality of Cuba. CLG-LUSA model was able to provide accurate visual feedback of key aspects of the decision process, making the methodology suitable for personal or group decision making. 相似文献
Rainfall infiltration is the main factor that causes slope instability. To study the effect of hydraulic parameters on the final saturation line and stability of slopes, a numerical slope model is established with a saturated–unsaturated seepage analysis method. Analysis results show the following, (1) When parameter a increases, the effective rainfall duration decreases linearly, and the ultimate safety factor increases gradually; when parameter m increases, the effective rainfall duration increases linearly, and the ultimate safety factor decreases linearly; when parameter n increases, both the effective rainfall duration and the ultimate safety factor decrease first and then remain stable. (2) When the saturated permeability coefficient decreases, the effective rainfall duration presents a crescent trend, and the ultimate safety factor decreases first and then remains the same after rainfall intensity exceeds the saturated permeability coefficient of soil. (3) When rainfall intensity is less than the saturated permeability coefficient of soil, the location of the final saturation line rises as the saturated permeability coefficient decreases and is thus independent of parameters a, m, and n. 相似文献
Warming climate and thawing permafrost have profound impacts on groundwater flow regimes in cold regions because of the shrinkage or disappearance of the confining unit formed by the permafrost layers and improving hydraulic connections. Numerical simulations of coupled groundwater flow and heat transfer are often used to characterize the changing permafrost hydrogeology. In this study, a number of scenarios for different hydraulic gradients and lake-water depths have been used to simulate the concordant permafrost evolution and groundwater movement using a two-dimensional cylindrical coordinate model at time scales of decades to centuries in response to a warming climate. The model is applied to a representative headwater catchment in the south-central headwater area of the Yellow River on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. The results show that the presence and movement of groundwater and the deeper subpermafrost aquifer can substantially accelerate permafrost degradation, and the disappearance of residual permafrost at depth can result in the sudden establishment of deep groundwater flow paths. All hydrological impacts will become evident after the stabilization of the hydrothermal and flow fields at 100–200 years. The stable discharge rate of groundwater flow varies from 8.0 to 12.4 m3 s−1, and the stable velocity of groundwater flow varies from 1.6 × 10−7 to 4.4 × 10−7 m s−1 under different scenarios within the model domain. The modeling results also demonstrate that flow velocity and discharge rate in local groundwater flow systems can be enhanced by an increased hydraulic conductivity, leading to an accelerated degradation of isolated permafrost bodies.