Unsteady inter-porosity flow modeling for a multiple media reservoir

The paper deals with unsteady inter-porosity flow modeling of underground fluid in a multiple media reservoir. Assuming spherical vugs, symmetrically distributed pressure, negligible inter-porosity flow between matrix and vug systems and centrifugal flow of the fluid from matrix blocks or vugs to fractures, and treating media directly connected with wellbore as the fracture system, we establish and solve a model of unsteady inter-porosity flow for dual and triple porosity media reservoirs. We provide simulated graphs of pressure and pressure derivative log-log type curves, and analyze the transient flow process and characteristics of type curves affected by different parameters. The new type curves of unsteady inter-porosity flow modeling are evidently different in shape and characteristics from those of pseudo-steady inter-porosity flow modeling. The location of dimensionless pressure of unsteady inter-porosity is lower than that of pseudo-steady inter-porosity, which indicates that unsteady inter-porosity flow accelerates an energy supplement during production. Qualitatively, the unsteady inter-porosity flow modeling reduces the classical V-shaped response. We also estimated parameters from well test data in real applications using this model.     

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水电工程坝址区构造应力场三维数值反演

以水电工程实例为背景,在现场调查和地应力测量的基础上,采用三维数值技术对水电站坝址区小范围内构造应力场进行了反演分析,通过对三维模型施加不同量值、不同方向的边界载荷,对比分析应力拟合点处的计算主应力与实测主应力之间的差别,从而得到最合理的边界载荷的量值和方向,即为坝址区构造应力场的量值和方向。计算结果表明：水电站坝址区构造应力场σ₁方向为S50°－60°E,量值为6～7 MPa;σ₃方向为N50°－60°E,量值为3～4 MPa。反演计算得到的坝址区构造应力场方向与区域应力场方向吻合,主应力量值也在合理范围内。     

辽河流域土壤酸化与作物籽实镉生物效应的地球化学预警

土壤酸化及其引发的生态安全问题是公众广泛关注、全球研究的热点。辽河流域多目标区域地球化学调查结果显示：当土壤中的w(CaO+K2O)≥3.86%时,土壤对酸性沉降物具有缓冲能力;当w(CaO+K₂O)<3.86%时,则土壤对酸性沉降物的缓冲能力显著下降。利用土壤酸化缓冲能力的地球化学预测模型,对全流域土壤酸化的缓冲能力进行了预测,指出辽河流域东部,即营口-鞍山-辽阳-沈阳-抚顺-铁岭-开源的广大区域内既是土壤酸化的脆弱区,也是作物籽实Cd超标的预警区,辽河流域土壤酸化区域将进一步扩大。     

Performance of detrending models of crop yield risk assessment: evaluation on real and hypothetical yield data

Detrending is a widely used technique for obtaining stationary time series data in residual analysis and risk assessment. The technique is frequently applied in crop yield risk assessment and insurance ratings. Although several trend models have been proposed in the literature, whether these models achieve consistent detrending results and successfully extract the true yield trends is rarely discussed. In the present article, crop insurance pricing is evaluated by different trend models using real and historical yield data, and hypothetical yield data generated by Monte Carlo simulations. Applied to real historical data, the linear, loglinear, autoregressive integrated moving average trend models produce different risk assessment results. The differences among the model outputs are statistically significant. The largest deviation in the county crop assessment reaches 6–8 %, substantially larger than the present countrywide gross premium rate of 5–7 %. In performance tests on simulated yield trends, popular detrending methods based on smoothing techniques proved overall superior to linear, loglinear, and integrated autoregression models. The best performances were yielded by the moving average and robust locally weighted regression models.     

巴丹吉林沙漠季节冻土特征

通过巴丹吉林沙漠腹地连续的地温观测和2014年1月的专题考察,发现巴丹吉林沙漠属于季节冻土区,年冻结时间长达4个月.沙漠内部的局地地形和湖泊分布是影响季节冻土分布差异的重要因素.迎风坡和背风坡冻土冻结深度显著大于丘间地冻结深度,湖泊的存在使湖泊周边地区最大冻结深度显著变浅.通过沙漠及其周边地区地温、气温、地气温差的分析,结合我们在巴丹吉林沙漠外围发现的末次冰期砂楔群,表明我国北方沙漠在末次冰期属于不连续的多年冻土区.     

自由设站起算点可用性的两步判断法研究

目前在地铁隧道结构变形监测中通常采用自由设站极坐标的测量方式,起算点准确是保证监测结果有效性的关键。地铁隧道监测自由设站起算点数量有限,当多点存在变动时通常难以准确判定各点的可用性。本文针对自由设站已知起算点的可用性问题,采用坐标系转换求解各已知点的位移分量完成可用性判断。重点关注坐标系转换关系的求解,提出了两步法的求解思路：采用RANSAC算法计算初值,然后进行迭代权估计计算得到最终结果。最后通过现场实测和模拟测试的方式验证了该算法的探测能力。     

山东胶东矿集区中生代构造事件与金矿成矿作用

中生代胶东地区有2次重要的碰撞造山事件,印支造山作用主要表现为扬子板块向华北板块俯冲,形成苏鲁高压—超高压变质带,同造山花岗岩及后造山高碱正长岩;燕山造山作用的大陆动力学环境起源于中亚-特提斯构造域向滨太平洋构造域转化和太平洋板块的俯冲,在胶东地区表现为3幕4期构造岩浆事件并以3次造山和3次伸展为特征。胶东地区中生代构造岩浆沉积成矿事件序列的时空演化也受控于这一地质作用过程,尤其是侏罗纪至白垩纪这一阶段,是胶东地区构造活动、岩浆侵入、地层沉积、火山喷发和成矿作用爆发时期,是挤压、伸展交互转化时期。该文基于对中生代构造事件的研究,厘定了构造与金矿成矿作用在空间上和时间上的高度耦合性。研究发现胶东地区在侏罗纪至白垩纪一阶段构造活动由早到晚经历了4期6阶段挤压伸展过程,第一期近S—N向挤压及NW—SE向挤压,第二期早阶段NE—SW向挤压晚阶段NE—SW向引张,第三期NW向引张,第四期近E—W向挤压及近S—N向引张,与构造—热事件相一致;在金矿成矿作用方面,表现为3期金矿成矿作用,对应于由挤压向伸展转变阶段的成矿作用过程,即第一幕伸展后的早期金矿成矿作用、第二幕伸展后的金矿主成矿期和第三幕伸展后的叠加金矿成矿作用。这种挤压—伸展构造活动的相互转化互为因果,挤压为伸展提供了条件,伸展为金矿的沉淀提供了空间,也为下一次的挤压提供了前提,并伴随着与岩浆—构造事件紧密相关的不同的成矿作用,构成了挤压—伸展的构造—岩浆—成矿作用方式,这是胶东地区形成大型、超大型金矿的动力学条件。     

深埋电极的地电阻率观测研究

首先研究了四极观测系统装置系数与电极埋深的关系;然后给出了点电流源在3层地壳模型的地表和第二层时,电源所在层的电位的解析表达式;最后将天津宝坻地区的电性结构简化成一个3层模型,计算给出了当地表层和基岩中的电阻率出现变化时,在地表和基岩上层开展四极地电阻率观测结果与供电极距和深度的关系.