The behavior of chlorine and sulfur during differentiation of the Mt. Somma-Vesuvius magmatic system

Summary Reheated silicate melt inclusions in volcanic rock samples from Mt. Somma-Vesuvius, Italy, have been analyzed for 29 constituents including H₂O, S, Cl, F, B, and P₂O₅. This composite volcano consists of the older Mt. Somma caldera, formed between 14 and 3.55 ka before present, and the younger Vesuvius cone. The melt inclusion compositions provide important constraints on pre-eruptive magma geochemistry, identify relationships that relate to eruption behavior and magma evolution, and provide extensive evidence for magmatic fluid exsolution well before eruption. The melt inclusion data have been categorized by groups that reflect magma compositions, age, and style of eruptions. The data show distinct differences in composition for eruptive products older than 14.0 ka (pre-caldera rocks) versus eruptive products younger than 3.55 ka. Moreover, pre-caldera eruptions were associated with magmas relatively enriched in SiO₂, whereas eruptions younger than 3.55 ka (i.e., the syn- and post-caldera magmas which generated the Somma caldera and the Vesuvius cone) were derived from magmas comparatively enriched in S, Cl, CaO, MgO, P₂O₅, F, and many lithophile trace elements. Melt inclusion data indicate that eruptive behavior at Vesuvius correlates with pre-eruptive volatile enrichments. Most magmas associated with explosive plinian and subplinian events younger than 3.55 ka contained more H₂O, contained significantly more S, and exhibited higher (S/Cl) ratios than syn- and post-caldera magmas which erupted during relatively passive interplinian volcanic phenomena. Received January 10, 2000 Revised version accepted July 17, 2000     

Application of a serial extended forecast experiment using the ECMWF model to interpret the predictive skill of tropical intraseasonal variability

The extended-range forecast skill of the ECMWF operational forecast model is evaluated during tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) events in the Indo-West Pacific warm pool. The experiment consists of ensemble extended serial forecasts including winter and summer ISO cases. The forecasts are compared with the ERA-40 analyses. The analysis focuses on understanding the origin of forecast errors by studying the vertical structure of relevant dynamical and moist convective features associated with the ISO. The useful forecast time scale for circulation anomalies is in average 13 days during winter compared to 7–8 days during summer. The forecast skill is not stationary and presents evidence of a flow-dependent nature, with states of the coupled system corresponding to long-lived convective envelopes associated with the ISO for which the skill is always low regardless of the starting date of the forecast. The model is not able to forecast skillfully the generation of specific humidity anomalies and results indicate that the convective processes in the model are associated with the erosion of the ISO forecast skill in the model. Circulation-associated anomalies are forecast better than moist convective associated anomalies. The model tends to generate a more stable atmosphere, limiting the model’s capability to reproduce deep convective events, resulting in smaller humidity and circulation anomalies in the forecasts compared to those in ERA-40.     

Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty

Although policymaking in response to the climate change threat is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions paths developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. The resulting uncertainty in temperature change and other impacts under these targets is used to illustrate three insights not obtainable from deterministic analyses: that the reduction of extreme temperature changes under emissions constraints is greater than the reduction in the median reduction; that the incremental gain from tighter constraints is not linear and depends on the target to be avoided; and that comparing median results across models can greatly understate the uncertainty in any single model.     

The exsolution of magmatic hydrosaline chloride liquids

Hydrosaline liquid represents the most Cl-enriched volatile phase that occurs in magmas, and the exsolution of this phase has important consequences for processes of hydrothermal mineralization and for volcanic emission of Cl to the atmosphere. To understand the exsolution of hydrosaline liquids in felsic to mafic magmas, the volatile abundances and (Cl/H₂O) ratios of more than 1000 silicate melt inclusions (MI) have been compared with predicted and experimentally determined solubilities of Cl and H₂O and associated (Cl/H₂O) ratios of silicate melts that were saturated in hydrosaline chloride liquid with or without aqueous vapor in hydrothermal experiments. This approach identifies the minimum volatile contents and the values of (Cl/H₂O) at which a hydrosaline chloride liquid exsolves from any CO₂- or SO₂-poor silicate melt. Chlorine solubility is a strong function of melt composition, so it follows that Cl solubility in magmas varies with melt evolution. Computations show that the (Cl/H₂O) ratio of residual melt in evolving silicate magmas either remains constant or increases to a small extent with fractional crystallization. Consequently, the initial (Cl/H₂O) in melt that is established early during partial melting has important consequences for the exsolution of vapor, vapor plus hydrosaline liquid, or hydrosaline liquid later during the final stages of melt ascent, emplacement, and crystallization or eruption. It is demonstrated that the melt (Cl/H₂O) controls the type of volatile phase that exsolves, whereas the volatile abundances in melt control the relative timing of volatile phase exsolution (i.e., the time of earliest volatile exsolution relative to the rate of magma ascent and crystallization history).

Comparing melt inclusion compositions with experimentally determined (Cl/H₂O) ratios and corresponding volatile solubilities of hydrosaline liquid-saturated silicate melts suggests that some fractions of the eruptive, calc-alkaline dacitic magmas of the Bonnin and Izu arcs should have saturated in and exsolved hydrosaline liquid at pressures of 2000 bars. Application of these same melt inclusion data to the predicted volatile solubilities of Cu-, Au-, and Mo-mineralized, calc-alkaline porphyritic magmas suggests that the chemical evolution of dioritic magmas to more-evolved quartz monzonite compositions involves a dramatic reduction in Cl solubility that increases the probability of hydrosaline liquid exsolution. The prediction that quartz monzonite magmas should exsolve a hydrosaline chloride liquid, that is potentially mineralizing, is consistent with the general observation of metal-enriched, hypersaline fluid inclusions in the more felsic plutons of numerous porphyry copper systems. Moreover, comparing the volatile contents of melt inclusions from the potassic, alkaline magmas of Mt. Somma-Vesuvius with the predicted (Cl/H₂O) ratios of hydrosaline liquid-saturated melts having compositions similar to those of the volatile-rich, alkaline magmas associated with the orthomagmatic gold–tellurium deposits of Cripple Creek, Colorado, suggests that hydrosaline chloride liquid should have exsolved at Cripple Creek as the magmas evolved to phonolite compositions. This prediction is consistent with the well-documented role of Cl-enriched, mineralizing hydrothermal fluids at this major gold-mining district.