Geostatistical analysis of arsenic concentration in groundwater in Bangladesh using disjunctive kriging

The National Hydrochemical Survey of Bangladesh sampled the water from 3,534 tube wells for arsenic throughout most of Bangladesh. It showed that 27% of the shallow tube wells (less than 150 m deep) and 1% of the deep tube wells (more than 150 m deep) exceeded the Bangladesh standard for arsenic in drinking water (50 µg L^–1). Statistical analyses revealed the main characteristics of the arsenic distribution. Concentrations ranged from less than the detection limit (0.5 µg L^–1), to as much as 1,600 µg L^–1, though with a very skewed distribution, and with spatial dependence extending to some 180 km. Disjunctive kriging was used to estimate concentrations of arsenic in the shallow ground water and to map the probability that the national limit for arsenic in drinking water was exceeded for most of the country (the Chittagong Hill Tracts and the southern coastal region were excluded). A clear regional pattern was identified, with large probabilities in the south of the country and small probabilities in much of the north including the Pleistocene Tracts. Using these probabilities, it was estimated that approximately 35 million people are exposed to arsenic concentrations in groundwater exceeding 50 µg L^–1 and 57 million people are exposed to concentrations exceeding 10 µg L^–1 (the WHO guideline value).     

Partisan Shifts in Presidential and Gubernatorial Elections in Alabama, 1932–1994*

Although the Republican Party has been competitive in presidential elections in the South for nearly three decades, it has only recently become a force in southern state and local elections. In Alabama, the GOP has dominated presidential voting since 1964, but has only become competitive during the past decade in gubernatorial elections. Why did the GOP first experience success in Alabama in presidential elections 30 years ago, but only recently become competitive in gubernatorial elections? This paper addresses this question using a county-level analysis of both presidential and gubernatorial election returns. It concludes that George Wallace's long political career is the dominant reason for the lag in GOP success in gubernatorial elections.     

Thermal history analysis by integrated modelling of apatite fission track and vitrinite reflectance data: application to an inverted basin (Buller Coalfield, New Zealand)

Integrated analysis and modelling of apatite fission track with vitrinite reflectance (VR) data allows the timing, magnitude and pattern of Palaeogene subsidence and Neogene inversion to be established for an uplifted and largely denuded basin: the Buller Coalfield, New Zealand. At the time of maximum subsidence in the late Oligocene, the basin consisted of an extensional half graben, bounded to the west by the Kongahu Fault Zone (KFZ), with up to 6 km of upper Eocene to Oligocene section adjacent to it; currently, only a few tens of metres of basal coal measures on basement are preserved on top of a range 800–1000 m above sea level. Integrated modelling of the VR and fission track data show that the deepest parts of the basin were inverted during two Miocene compressional phases (24–19 Ma and 13–8 Ma), and are consistent with a further phase of inversion during the Quaternary that formed the present topography. Palinspastic restoration of the three phases of inversion shows that the basin was not inverted in a simple way: most of the rock uplift/denudation adjacent to the KFZ occurred during the early Miocene phase, and at the same time burial occurred in the south-eastern part of the basin (maximum temperatures were experienced at different times at different places in the basin); during the middle to late Miocene there was broad uplift in the central and eastern parts of the coalfield. Because the timing and magnitude of uplift have been derived from the zone of inversion, they can be compared independently with the timing of unconformity development and rapid subsidence in the adjacent foredeeps, particularly the Westport Trough. For the middle to late Miocene phase of inversion, we show that during the first 1–2 million years of compression, the uplift within the coalfield also involved the margins of the Westport Trough, contributing to unconformity development; subsequently, uplift continued on the inversion structure but the margins of the Westport Trough subsided rapidly. This is explained by a model of stick slip behaviour on the boundary faults, especially for the KFZ. When compression started the fault zone has locked and uplift extends into the basin, whereas subsequently the fault zone unlocks, and the inversion structure overrides the basin margin, thereby loading it and causing subsidence.     

Solar rotation measurements at Mount Wilson

This paper describes a thorough reevaluation of the procedures for reducing the data acquired at the Mt. Wilson Observatory synoptic program of solar observations at the 150-foot tower. We also describe a new program of acquiring as many scans per day as possible of the solar magnetic and velocity fields. We give a new fitting formula which removes the background velocity field from each scan. An important new feature of our reduction algorithm is our treatment of the limb shift which permits time variation in this function. We identify the difference between the limb shift along the north-south axis and the east-west axis as potentially being a result of meridional circulation. Our analysis interprets the time variation in the east-west limb shift as being the result of changes in a vertical component of the meridional circulation.The performance of the system improved in 1982 as a result of the installation of a new exit slit assembly. The amplitude of the limb shift variations found prior to 1982 is larger than is easily explained with simple ideas of meridional circulation. However, we have not been able to firmly identify instrumental causes for the variations although small changes in the band-pass of the exit slit assembly could have contributed.We have established a correlation between the observed stray light in the system and a component of the velocity field which is antisymmetric with respect to the solar central meridian. We remove this stray light effect by adding an additional term to the fitting function.Finally, we show that the inclusion of the above improvements allows us to study the torsional oscillations at high latitude using a procedure which can retain the longitude dependent information about the velocity pattern.     

Partitioning behavior of chlorine and fluorine in the system apatite-silicate melt-fluid

The partitioning behavior of Cl among apatite, mafic silicate melt, and aqueous fluid and of F between apatite and melt have been determined in experiments conducted at 1066 to 1150 °C and 199-205 MPa. The value of D_Cl^apatite/melt (wt. fraction of Cl in apatite/Cl in melt) ≈0.8 for silicate melt containing less than ∼3.8 wt.% Cl. At higher melt Cl contents, small increases in melt Cl concentration are accompanied by large increases in apatite Cl concentration, forcing D_Cl^apatite/melt to increase as well. Melt containing less than 3.8% Cl coexists with water-rich vapor; that containing more Cl coexists with saline fluid, the salinity of which increases rapidly with small increases in melt Cl content, analogous to the dependency of apatite composition on melt Cl content. This behavior is due to the fact that the solubility of Cl in silicate melt depends strongly on the composition of the melt, particularly its Mg, Ca, Fe, and Si contents. Once the melt becomes “saturated” in Cl, additional Cl must be accommodated by coexisting fluid, apatite, or other phases rather than the melt itself. Because Cl solubility depends on composition, the Cl concentration at which D_Cl^apatite/melt and D_Cl^fluid/melt begin to increase also depends on composition. The experiments reveal that D_F^apatite/melt ≈3.4. In contrast to Cl, the concentration of F in silicate melt is only weakly dependent on composition (mainly on melt Ca contents), so D_F^apatite/melt is constant for a wide range of composition.The experimental data demonstrate that the fluids present in the waning stages of the solidification of the Stillwater and Bushveld complexes were highly saline. The Cl-rich apatite in these bodies crystallized from interstitial melt with high Cl/(F + OH) ratio. The latter was generated by the combined processes of fractional crystallization and dehydration by its reaction with the relatively large mass of initially anhydrous pyroxene through which it percolated.     

Accurate quantification of melt inclusion chemistry by LA-ICPMS: a comparison with EMP and SIMS and advantages and possible limitations of these methods

Laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) has recently emerged as a powerful in situ microanalytical technique for major to trace elements in heterogeneous samples such as fluid and melt inclusions. Here, a rigorous comparison of melt inclusion (MI) data acquired by electron microprobe (EMP), ion microprobe (the secondary ion mass spectrometry, SIMS) and LA-ICPMS is used to evaluate the applicability and advantages/drawbacks of these approaches. We are specifically interested in determining if LA-ICPMS data on entire, unexposed, crystallized MI that cannot be homogenized in the lab are accurate and of a useful precision.

Quantification of LA-ICPMS MI signals requires the use of an internal standard, i.e., the concentration of one element, or an element ratio, at the time of MI entrapment must be known independently, in order to derive the pure MI composition from the MI plus host mixed signal. Analysis of plagioclase-hosted glassy MI of a mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) sample from the East Pacific Rise illustrates that melt inclusion chemistry can be accurately quantified by LA-ICPMS, including the correction for postentrapment sidewall crystallisation of the host mineral without prior reheating in the lab.

The LA-ICPMS data obtained on crystallized MI demonstrate agreement with the EMP and SIMS data on exposed glassy MI at the 1 standard deviation uncertainty level except for a few elements close to their limits of detection. LA-ICPMS data reduction schemes include the quantification of analytical uncertainty on each element of single MI. Therefore, weighted average element concentrations can be obtained for MI assemblages, at precisions that compare well with those of average element concentrations obtained by EMP and SIMS.

Simple sample preparation minimizing inclusion loss through polishing combined with the analytical efficiency of 50 inclusions plus neighbouring host mineral at up to 40 elements per day enable the collection of statistically relevant datasets by LA-ICPMS. These allow to recognize nonrepresentative MI (e.g., heterogeneous entrapment). Application to individual clinopyroxene crystals from the AD79 pumice horizon of Mt. Somma-Vesuvius reveals chemical variability that exceeds the analytical precision on single melt inclusions. This variability was not obvious from the limited data set obtained by SIMS and EMP.

The largest source of nonquantifiable error for EMP and SIMS data stems from the requirement of reheating the melt inclusions in the lab in order to reverse postentrapment crystallisation onto inclusion walls or growth of crystallites. For LA-ICPMS analysis of unexposed MI, the reliability with which the internal standard (IS) element concentration is known determines the quality of the data. LA-ICPMS, however, cannot analyse H₂O, F, S and Cl reliably, has higher limits of detection (LODs) than SIMS for some elements for MI below 25 μm, has lower spatial resolution than both EMP and SIMS and consumes much more sample per analysis. Therefore, EMP, SIMS and LA-ICPMS are complementary in MI research, and the type of application will determine the analytical method or methods of choice.     

On the pseudo cross-variogram

Normal cross-variograms cannot be estimated from data in the usual way when there are only a few points where both variables have been measured. But the experimental pseudo cross-variogram can be computed even where there are no matching sampling points, and this appears as its principal advantage. The pseudo cross-variogram may be unbounded, though for its existence the intrinsic hypothesis alone is not a sufficient stationarity condition. In addition the differences between the two random processes must be second order stationary. Modeling the function by linear coregionalization reflects the more restrictive stationarity condition: the pseudo cross-variogram can be unbounded only if the unbounded correlation structures are the same in all variograms. As an alternative to using the pseudo cross-variogram a new method is presented that allows estimating the normal cross variogram from data where only one variable has been measured at a point.     

A discussion of JEBAR/pycnobathic forcing

Recently a number of authors have analysed the importance of along-isobath density gradients in the vorticity balance governing flows along the continental shelf and slope. The interaction between density gradients and bathymetry has been termed JEBAR (Joint Effect of Baroclinicity and Relief). A recent formulation of these baroclinicity-bathymetry interactions has shown that the pycnobathic term, involving the Jacobian of the bottom density and the depth, can be a source of vorticity. This paper examines the divergence of opinion regarding the importance of pycnobathic forcing.Using a simple expansion of the JEBAR term we show that no JEBAR-type forcing arises when the flow field is geostrophic. We follow this up by allowing small deviations from geostrophy, a quasigeostrophic treatment. We find that when small slope dynamics are employed then a closed problem can be formulated without inclusion of a pycnobathic forcing term. If the dynamics are to apply to regimes characterized by strong bathymetry then the pycnobathic term must enter the formulation.     

A geostatistical basis for spatial weighting in multivariate classification

Earth scientists and land managers often wish to group sampling sites that are both similar with respect to their properties and near to one another on the ground. This paper outlines the geostatistical rationale for such spatial grouping and describes a multivariate procedure to implement it. Sample variograms are calculated from the original data or their leading principal components and then the parameters of the underlying functions are estimated. A dissimilarity matrix is computed for all sampling sites, preferably using Gower's general similarity coefficient. Dissimilarities are then modified using the variogram to incorporate the form and extent of spatial variation. A nonhierarchical classification of sampling sites is performed on the leading latent vectors of the modified dissimilarity matrix by dynamic clustering to an optimum. The technique is illustrated with results of its application to soil survey data from two small areas in Britain and from a transect. In the case of the latter results of spatially weighted classifications are compared with those of strict segmentation. An appendix lists a Genstat program for a spatially constrained classification using a spherical variogram as an example.     

A re-examination of the evidence for a plio-pleistocene marine transgression on the Chiltern hills. I. structures and surfaces

Borehole and surface outcrop data are used to construct sub-Chalk, sub-Upper Chalk and sub-Tertiary contour maps for the Chiltern area. The results show a southwest-northeast monocline, which coincides with the change of slope at the lower boundary of the morphological bench on the Chalk dipslope that Wooldridge and Linton attributed to Plio-Pleistocene marine erosion. Younger northwest-southeast synclines coincide with the main transverse river valleys of the Chilterns. The monoclinal flexuring casts doubt on the value of the bench as evidence for a Plio-Pleistocene transgression.