Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.     

基于水利益共享的跨境流域水资源多目标分配研究——以澜沧江-湄公河为例

以水利益共享代替分水的理念有利于充分发挥水资源效益和减少区域矛盾冲突,但由于缺乏具体可实施的分配模式一直停留在设想阶段。基于水利益共享理念,建立跨境流域水资源多目标分配指标体系,并结合澜沧江-湄公河流域跨境水资源利用现状及需求,提出澜沧江-湄公河流域跨境水资源多目标分配模型。为基于水利益共享的跨境水资源多目标分配提供了具有充分可操作性的指标体系和分配模型,有助于推进跨境流域水利益共享的实施,实现区域双边或多边在水资源利用上的共赢和发展目标。     

Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

A study on the early-warning technique concerning debris flow disasters

According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN)real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system′s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.     

Influence of fines content on the anti-frost properties of coarse-grained soil

This paper aims to determine the optimal fines content of coarse-grained soil required to simultaneously achieve weaker frost susceptibility and better bearing capacity. We studied the frost susceptibility and strength properties of coarse-grained soil by means of frost heaving tests and static triaxial tests, and the results are as follows:(1) the freezing temperature of coarse-grained soil decreased gradually and then leveled off with incremental increases in the percent content of fines; (2) the fines content proved to be an important factor influencing the frost heave susceptibility and strength properties of coarse-grained soil. With incremental increases in the percent content of fines, the frost heave ratio increased gradually and the cohesion function of fines effectively enhanced the shear strength of coarse-grained soil before freeze-thaw, but the frost susceptibility of fines weakened the shear strength of coarse-grained soil after freeze-thaw; (3) with increasing numbers of freeze-thaw cycles,the shear strength of coarse-grained soil decreased and then stabilized after the ninth freeze-thaw cycle, and therefore the mechanical indexes of the ninth freeze-thaw cycle are recommended for the engineering design values; and (4) considering frost susceptibility and strength properties as a whole, the optimal fines content of 5% is recommended for railway subgrade coarse-grained soil fillings in frozen regions.     

Microbial community dynamics and biodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in polluted marine sediments in Hong Kong

Dynamics of microbial community and biodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in polluted marine sediments, artificially spiked with a mixture of PAHs (fluorene, phenanthrene, fluoranthene and pyrene), were examined for a period of 60 days. Microbial communities were characterised by bacterial counts, ester-linked fatty acid methyl ester (EL-FAME) analysis and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). A noted reduction in species diversity occurred only in the high PAH level treatment at onset. Both EL-FAME and DGGE demonstrated a marked shift in microbial community, in all the PAH level treatments, afterwards, with increases in the number of fatty acid degraders, the relative abundance of fatty acid biomarkers for gram-negative bacteria and a decrease in species diversity. The shift was also accompanied by the significant decrease in PAH concentrations. By the end of the experiment, diversity indices, based on both approaches, recovered when PAH concentrations declined to their background levels, except in the high PAH level treatment.     

Emergence patterns and microhabitat preference of aquatic dance flies (Empididae; Clinocerinae and Hemerodromiinae) on a longitudinal gradient of barrage lake system

Aquatic dance flies (Empididae; Clinocerinae and Hemerodromiinae) are important components of freshwater assemblages, especially in running waters. They are predators as larvae and adults and thus essential for understanding aquatic food webs. This study was conducted in Plitvice lakes National Park (Croatia) representing a wide variety of freshwater habitats (springs, streams, lakes and tufa barriers). Adults were collected monthly from March 2007 until March 2009 using pyramid-type emergence traps at 13 locations. A total of 3865 specimens comprising 18 species were collected. The dominant genus was Chelifera, while the most abundant species was Hemerodromia unilineata. All species were univoltine except Chelifera precabunda, Chelifera pyrenaica and Chelifera stigmatica that were bivoltine. Considerable differences in composition and structure of aquatic dance flies assemblages were recorded along a longitudinal gradient of studied sites, primarily related to differences in physical and chemical parameters of water. Water temperature was the main factor influencing the timing of emergence. Hemerodromia species preferred variable water temperature throughout the year while the majority of the Chelifera species preferred stable water temperature characteristic of spring sites. Furthermore, discharge affected assemblage composition of aquatic dance flies. The highest abundance of aquatic dance flies was recorded in lotic habitats with fast water current over substrates of moss, gravel and particulate tufa with detritus. These results give a new insight on microhabitat preference and their distribution on unique karstic habitats.     

乌鲁木齐河灌区水资源利用及可持续管理

通过对乌鲁木齐河灌区历年供水和用水状况分析,提出了该灌区水资源可持续利用的对策,并针对城市用水逐年增加与水资源供需矛盾日益突出的形势,从水份分析入手,从水资源可持续管理的角度,提出了水资源高效利用与管理的对策 。     

祁连山南坡灌丛草甸生物量变化与水热因子的关系研究

通过野外调研和室内实验,研究了祁连山南坡灌丛草甸地上生物量的生长季变化,并对地上生物量与水热因子的关系进行了探讨。结果表明：在不同区域群落结构有所不同,覆盖度越低,上层和下层的植物高度越低,丰富度和多样性越小。但均匀度还受草场退化阶段的影响,群落结构相对稳定,植物的均匀度越高;地上生物量的年内变化是单峰曲线,乌鞘岭和门源的地上生物量在7月份最大,祁连和野牛沟的地上生物量在9月份最大;地上生物量的积累与前1月和前2月的气温和降水正相关,与前4月的气温也正相关,并且对气温变化的敏感性大于降水,但与地温和土壤水分的相关性不明显,前1月表层地温较高对地上生物量的积累有积极作用;对于地上生物量积累,日气温、日相对湿度、降水量有直接正向作用,而日最高气温、日最低气温、日水汽压有直接负向作用,5 cm、20 cm地温和0~10 cm、20~30 cm土壤水分也有直接正向作用,而10 cm地温和10~20 cm土壤水分也有直接负向作用。     

Study on uncertainty of inversion and resolution limit in the presence of noise

This study analyzed the uncertainty of inversion and the resolution limit in the presence of noise by means of statistical experiments. The exhaustive method is adopted to obtain the global optimal solution in each experiment. We found that even with small level of noise, solutions fluctuate in a large range for the thin bed. The distribution of solutions in the presence of noise is closely related to the spread of the cost function in the absence of noise. As a result, the area of a certain neighborhood around the true solution on the spread of the cost function in the absence of noise is used to evaluate the uncertainty of inversion and the resolution limit in the presence of noise. In the case that the SNR (signal-to-noise ratio) is 5 in this study, solutions focus around the true solution with a very small uncertainty only when the bed thickness is greater than the reciprocal of the double predominant frequency of the convoluting wavelet.