Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil‐mantled landscapes

The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km² catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Details of magnetic polarity transitions recorded in a high deposition rate deep-sea core

Concentrations of the (n, γ)-produced radionuclide⁶⁰Co were measured in lunar samples at various depths from the surface down to 360 g/cm². By comparing the data obtained to calculated production rates (based on the work of Lingenfelter et al. [8]) we determined the present day lunar neutron production rate, which was found to be (12 ± 3)neutrons/cm²sec (E < 10MeV).     

Constraining sequence stratigraphy in north Australian basins: SHRIMP U–Pb zircon geochronology between Mt Isa and McArthur River

Fifty‐five new SHRIMP U–Pb zircon ages from samples of northern Australian ‘basement’ and its overlying Proterozoic successions are used to refine and, in places, significantly change previous lithostratigraphic correlations. In conjunction with sequence‐stratigraphic studies, the 1800–1580 Ma rock record between Mt Isa and the Roper River is now classified into three superbasin phases—the Leichhardt, Calvert and Isa. These three major depositional episodes are separated by ～20 million years gaps. The Isa Superbasin can be further subdivided into seven supersequences each 10–15 million years in duration. Gaps in the geological record between these supersequences are variable; they approach several million years in basin‐margin positions, but are much smaller in the depocentres. Arguments based on field setting, petrography, zircon morphology, and U–Pb systematics are used to interpret these U–Pb zircon ages and in most cases to demonstrate that the ages obtained are depositional. In some instances, zircon crystals are reworked and give maximum depositional ages. These give useful provenance information as they fingerprint the source(s) of basin fill. Six new ‘Barramundi’ basement ages (around 1850 Ma) were obtained from crystalline units in the Murphy Inlier (Nicholson Granite and Cliffdale Volcanics), the Urapunga Tectonic Ridge (‘Mt Reid Volcanics’ and ‘Urapunga Granite’), and the central McArthur Basin (Scrutton Volcanics). New ages were also obtained from units assigned to the Calvert Superbasin (ca 1740–1690 Ma). SHRIMP results show that the Wollogorang Formation is not one continuous unit, but two different sequences, one deposited around 1730 Ma and a younger unit deposited around 1722 Ma. Further documentation is given of a regional 1725 Ma felsic event adjacent to the Murphy Inlier (Peters Creek Volcanics and Packsaddle Microgranite) and in the Carrara Range. A younger ca 1710 Ma felsic event is indicated in the southwestern McArthur Basin (Tanumbirini Rhyolite and overlying Nyanantu Formation). Four of the seven supersequences in the Isa Superbasin (ca 1670–1580 Ma) are reasonably well‐constrained by the new SHRIMP results: the Gun Supersequence (ca 1670–1655 Ma) by Paradise Creek Formation, Moondarra Siltstone, Breakaway Shale and Urquhart Shale ages grouped between 1668 and 1652 Ma; the Loretta Supersequence (ca 1655–1645 Ma) by results from the Lady Loretta Formation, Walford Dolomite, the upper part of the Mallapunyah Formation and the Tatoola Sandstone between ca 1653 and 1647 Ma; the River Supersequence (ca 1645–1630 Ma) by ages from the Teena Dolomite, Mt Les and Riversleigh Siltstones, and Barney Creek, Lynott, St Vidgeon and Nagi Formations clustering around 1640 Ma; and the Term Supersequence (ca 1630–1615 Ma) by ages from the Stretton Sandstone, lower Doomadgee Formation and lower part of the Lawn Hill Formation, mostly around 1630–1620 Ma. The next two younger supersequences are less well‐constrained geochronologically, but comprise the Lawn Supersequence (ca 1615–1600 Ma) with ages from the lower Balbirini Dolomite, and lower Doomadgee, Amos and middle Lawn Hill Formations, clustered around 1615–1610 Ma; and the Wide Supersequence (ca 1600–1585 Ma) with only two ages around 1590 Ma, one from the upper Balbirini Dolomite and the other from the upper Lawn Hill Formation. The Doom Supersequence (<1585 Ma) at the top of the Isa Superbasin is essentially unconstrained. The integration of high‐precision SHRIMP dating from continuously analysed stratigraphic sections, within a sequence stratigraphic context, provides an enhanced chronostratigraphic framework leading to more reliable interpretations of basin architecture and evolution.     

Paleoclimatic changes in southern Africa during the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation: evidence from ODP Leg 175 Site 1085

Pliocene age sediments from Ocean Drilling Program Leg 175, Site 1085-A and B in the Cape Basin were analyzed to investigate the impact of the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (INHG) on the South Atlantic Benguela Current system from 4 to 2 Ma. Proxies for productivity (concentrations and mass accumulation rates of total organic carbon, carbon to nitrogen ratios, percent calcium carbonate, and percent biogenic silica) as well as weight percent sand (a proxy for preservation or winnowing) peak at 3.2, 3.0, 2.4, and 2.25 Ma. Normative calculations of allied trace and major elemental determinations indicate synchronous increases in productivity peaks, as well as high concentrations and accumulations of terrigenous sediments. Coeval increases in hemipelagic sedimentation and productivity indicators could be the result of enhanced eolian sedimentation resulting from strengthened winds, leading to elevated rates of upwelling and enhanced productivity. However, rapid burial, as indicated by high sedimentation rates, could also enhance preservation. The very high concentrations (>30%) and accumulations (up to 60 g/cm²/kyr) limit the likelihood that eolian sedimentation was the only transport mechanism, invoking an additional fluvial source. Rapid burial by either eolian or fluvial transport links these intervals of enhanced preservation and productivity with continental climate changes resulting from (1) increased winds and/or dust availability due to higher aridity in the Namibia/northern South Africa region; (2) lowered sea-level related to increased ice volume; (3) increased sediment load due to wetter conditions in the continental interior; or (4) some combination. Peaks at 3.2, 2.4 and 2.25 Ma are coincident with maximum precession, suggesting a link between hemipelagic sedimentation and enhanced monsoonal circulation over southern Africa. The Site 1085 sedimentary record during the INHG seems to be controlled by low-latitude processes linked to precession rather than hig-latitude processes.     

Graphical estimation of extreme value prediction functions

Graphical application of the Type 1 (Gumbel) extreme value distribution is very simple since the distribution inverse gives a linear x-y plot. In contrast, the Type 2 and Type 3 extreme value distributions have nonlinear functions with respect to the same axes. A simple three-point graphical estimation procedure is described for these two distributions. This approach allows the nonlinear flood magnitude prediction functions to be located in any desirable position relative to the plotted annual maxima, subject to the constraint of having an extreme value form. The computation is very simple and requires only the location of a unique zero of a one-parameter function within a defined interval.     

Contemporary ocean and coastal management issues in Australia and New Zealand: an overview

The past decade has witnessed an unprecedented increase in the number of international treaties, conventions and agreements dealing with maritime issues and oceans governance. Most nations are attempting to cope with this expanding agenda at a time of fiscal constraint, competing environmental demands and the emergence of a new global strategic, political and economic order. However, similar issues do not always lead to similar outcomes. Australia and New Zealand share some common oceanic and coastal management problems, but variations in response arise from geographical differences, constitutional provisions, political style and administrative arrangements. This paper provides a brief overview of contemporary maritime issues and attempted solutions in both nations.     

Modeling of the swelling–shrinkage behavior of expansive clays during wetting–drying cycles

Acta Geotechnica - This paper presents a constitutive model for simulating the swelling–shrinkage volume change of expansive soils during wetting–drying cycles. Based on the concept of...