Moment Tensor Inversion of Regional Phases: Application to a Mine Collapse

—?The aim of our study consists of analyzing potentially non-double-couple seismic events recorded at regional distances. In order to define the nature of the seismic source, a moment tensor inversion is carried out as this method is general enough not to initially constrain the source mechanism. In this paper we present an application to a seismic event induced by a mine collapse which occurred near the town of Halle in Germany. Because of its induced nature, many parameters such as the location and geometry of this seismic source are known. This information allows us to test the influence of inadequate propagation modeling on the moment tensor obtained from the inversion. Green's functions have been computed with the reflectivity method in a flat layered medium, using the European model EurID (Du et? al., 1998; Dufumier et al., 1997). From the inversion of P-wave seismograms recorded by the German Regional Seismic Network will, we obtained a source time function which can be decomposed into two subevents. The first one has a large isotropic part and a deviatoric mechanism with near vertical nodal planes. No volume change is observed for the second subevent, but a deviatoric component opposite of the first one. The addition of S-waves does not change the results of the inversion which are stable. Surface waves were not used because of their poor dispersion curves. Based on the moment tensor obtained from these inversions, the physical process at the source is compatible with a large cavity collapse.     

Preliminary seismic hazard maps of Slovenia

The preparation of the preliminary seismic hazard maps of the territory of Slovenia has been based on an expansion of the basic approach laid out by Cornell in 1968. Three seismic source models were prepared. Two of them are based mainly on the earthquake catalogue using the Poissonian probability model. A map of seismic energy release and a map of earthquake epicenter density are used to delineate seismic sources in these models. The geometry of the third model which is based on a rough estimate of seismotectonic setting is taken from the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of a nuclear power plant in Slovenia. Published ground motion attenuation models based on strong motion records of recent strong earthquakes in Italy are used. Test maps for variable and uniform b-values are presented. The computer program, Seisrisk III, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey is used.     

Repeated Geodetic Measurements in the West Bohemia Seismoactive Region: Period 1993 - 1996

The western part of the Bohemian Massif is characterized by repeated occurrences of intraplate earthquake swarms. To study surface deformations of this anomalous region, a network covering about 2000 square kilometres for repeated geodetic measurements was established in 1993 - 1994. The positions of the individual points of the network were carefully picked with respect to local tectonic structure and earthquake foci distribution. GPS and precise levelling measurements were performed 1-2 times a year. The GPS data were processed by Bernese GPS software. No tendency to any displacement - either horizontal or vertical - of geological blocks was derived from the geodetic data for the period 1993 - 96. Only displacements of less than 5 mm/year in average could occur in the whole region in that period; larger displacements would have been revealed by our measurements.     

Remote sensing detection of atmospheric pollutants by differential absorption LIDAR 510M/SODAR PA2 mobile system

Summary Air pollution problem in the Czech Republic is very complex due to large number of factors as turbulent dispersion and chemical reactions concurring in the status of the PBL. For this 3D distribution of pollutants is a key information that cannot be given by conventional monitoring stations. Combined use of DIAL lidar and sodar can give access to such information. Case studies of air pollutants transport are presented using 3D concentration fields of NO₂ and ozone measured by lidar and meteorological conditions monitored by Doppler Sodar.     

Dynamics of Saxothuringian subduction channel/wedge constrained by phase‐equilibria modelling and micro‐fabric analysis

Subduction and exhumation dynamics can be investigated through analysis of metamorphic and deformational evolution of associated high‐grade rocks. The Erzgebirge anticline, which forms at the boundary between the Saxothuringian and Teplá‐Barrandian domains of the Bohemian Massif, provides a useful study area for these processes owing to the occurrence of numerous meta‐basites preserving eclogite facies assemblages, and coesite and diamond bearing quartzofeldspathic lithologies indicating subduction to deep mantle depths. The prograde and retrograde evolution of meta‐basite from the Czech portion of the Erzgebirge anticline has been constrained through a combination of thermodynamic modelling and conventional thermobarometry. Garnet growth zoning indicates that the rocks underwent burial and heating to peak conditions of 2.6 GPa and at least 615 °C. Initial exhumation occurred with concurrent cooling and decompression resulting in the growth of amphibole and zoisite poikiloblasts overgrowing and including the eclogite facies assemblage. The development of clinopyroxene–plagioclase–amphibole symplectites after omphacite and Al‐rich rims on matrix amphibole indicate later heating at the base of the lower crust. Omphacite microstructures, in particular grain size analysis and lattice‐preferred orientations, indicate that the prograde evolution was characterized by a constrictional strain geometry transitioning into plane strain and oblate fabrics during exhumation. The initial constrictional strain pattern is interpreted as being controlled by competing slab pull and crustal buoyancy forces leading to necking of the subducting slab. The transition to plane strain and flattening geometries represents transfer of material from the subducting lithosphere into a subduction channel, break‐off of the dense slab and rebound of the buoyant crustal material.     

P–T–t–d evolution of orogenic middle crust of the Roc de Frausa Massif (Eastern Pyrenees): a result of horizontal crustal flow and Carboniferous doming?

Structural, petrological and textural studies are combined with phase equilibria modelling of metapelites from different structural levels of the Roc de Frausa Massif in the Eastern Pyrenees. The pre‐Variscan lithological succession is divided into the Upper, Intermediate and Lower series by two orthogneiss sheets and intruded by Variscan igneous rocks. Structural analysis reveals two phases of Variscan deformation. D1 is marked by tight to isoclinal small‐scale folds and an associated flat‐lying foliation (S1) that affects the whole crustal section. D2 structures are characterized by tight upright folds facing to the NW with steep NE–SW axial planes. D2 heterogeneously reworks the D1 fabrics, leading to an almost complete transposition into a sub‐vertical foliation (S2) in the high‐grade metamorphic domain. All structures are affected by late open to tight, steeply inclined south‐verging NW–SE folds (F3) compatible with steep greenschist facies dextral shear zones of probable Alpine age. In the micaschists of the Upper series, andalusite and sillimanite grew during the formation of the S1 foliation indicating heating from 580 to 640 °C associated with an increase in pressure. Subsequent static growth of cordierite points to post‐D1 decompression. In the Intermediate series, a sillimanite–biotite–muscovite‐bearing assemblage that is parallel to the S1 fabric is statically overgrown by cordierite and K‐feldspar. This sequence points to ~1 kbar of post‐D1 decompression at 630–650 °C. The Intermediate series is intruded by a gabbro–diorite stock that has an aureole marked by widespread migmatization. In the aureole, the migmatitic S1 foliation is defined by the assemblage biotite–sillimanite–K‐feldspar–garnet. The microstructural relationships and garnet zoning are compatible with the D1 pressure peak at ~7.5 kbar and ~750 °C. Late‐ to post‐S2 cordierite growth implies that F2 folds and the associated S2 axial planar leucosomes developed during nearly isothermal decompression to <5 kbar. The Lower series migmatites form a composite S1–S2 fabric; the garnet‐bearing assemblage suggests peak P–T conditions of >5 kbar at suprasolidus conditions. Almost complete consumption of garnet and late cordierite growth points to post‐D2 equilibration at <4 kbar and <750 °C. The early metamorphic history associated with the S1 fabric is interpreted as a result of horizontal middle crustal flow associated with progressive heating and possible burial. The upright F2 folding and S2 foliation are associated with a pressure decrease coeval with the intrusion of mafic magma at mid‐crustal levels. The D2 tectono‐metamorphic evolution may be explained by a crustal‐scale doming associated with emplacement of mafic magmas into the core of the dome.     

Forecasting ozone concentrations in the east of Croatia using nonparametric Neural Network Models

Ozone is one of the most significant secondary pollutants with numerous negative effects on human health and environment including plants and vegetation. Therefore, more effort is made recently by governments and associations to predict ozone concentrations which could help in establishing better plans and regulation for environment protection. In this study, we use two Artificial Neural Network based approaches (MPL and RBF) to develop, for the first time, accurate ozone prediction models, one for urban and another one for rural area in the eastern part of Croatia. The evaluation of actual against the predicted ozone concentrations revealed that MLP and RBF models are very competitive for the training and testing data in the case of Kopa?ki Rit area whereas in the case of Osijek city, MLP shows better evaluation results with 9% improvement in the correlation coefficient. Furthermore, subsequent feature selection process has improved the prediction power of RBF network.     

Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?

Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria.