‘A Case Study on a Polar Cold Air Outbreak over Fram Strait using a Mesoscale Weather Prediction Model’

The mesoscale weather prediction model ’Lokal-Modell’ (LM) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst is applied to the situation of an Arctic cold air outbreak in the Fram Strait region in April 1998. Observations are available from a flight along 5⁰E carried out during the ARTIST campaign. Initial and time-dependent boundary data for the simulation are taken from a larger scale operational model system. Using the standard configuration of LM, the simulation reproduced the propagation of cold air and the characteristic structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in fair agreement with the observations. However, a detailed comparison revealed three basic problems. Firstly, there is evidence that the available data on sea-ice conditions were insufficient approximations to the true state for several reasons. A modification of the sea-ice data towards observations revealed that parts of the discrepancies were due to the original sea-ice data. Secondly, a control run with the model in its standard configuration shows an insufficient warming of the ABL downstream of the ice edge due to underestimation of surface heat fluxes. A simple modification of the approach for the scalar roughness length resulted in the strongest benefit, while comparative studies showed only a slight sensitivity to different types of parametrisation of turbulent mixing or the inclusion of an additional moist convection parametrisation. Thirdly, in all the simulations the deepening of the convective ABL downstream of the ice edge is weaker than observed. This may be partly due to the thermal stratification above the ABL in the analysis data, which is more stable than observed; but it may also be a hint to the fact that processes near the inversion are insufficiently parametrised in mesoscale models with resolutions as used in LM. The simulated cloud layer in the convective ABL is similar to that observed with respect to condensate content, a sharply defined cloud top, a diffuse lower bound, and continuous light precipitation.     

Nitrogen isotope ratios in estuarine biota collected along a nutrient gradient in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA

Stable nitrogen isotope ratios were used to study the incorporation of anthropogenically-derived nitrogen into the food webs of salt marsh systems along a contamination gradient in Narragansett Bay. Nitrogen isotope ratios (delta(15)N) were measured in six estuarine species collected from three marshes along this gradient, monthly from June to October between 1997 and 1999. A significant decrease in delta(15)N was found with distance along the estuary for four of the six species. Significant differences were found among monthly isotope ratios for some species. Nitrogen isotope ratios in sea lettuce (Ulva lactuca) increased during the summer season with highest delta(15)N values measured during September and October. This trend was most pronounced at the station receiving the highest nutrient inputs. Elevated delta(15)N values at this station appeared to correlate with seawater ammonia/nitrate concentration ratios. The temporal variations in delta(15)N suggest that care should be taken in species selection and the design of sampling schemes of studies using delta(15)N for monitoring anthropogenic nutrients in aquatic systems. Sampling programs designed to determine long-term trends should consider species that do not show rapid fluctuations in isotope ratios. The mud snail, Nassarius obsoletus, responded this way in the present study. Studies designed to measure short-term changes should include species such as U. lactuca, which rapidly respond to isotope changes. The results from this study also help to establish a baseline for nitrogen isotope values in Narragansett Bay. This information can be used to monitor future trends in nitrogen inputs to this estuary.     

In-cloud and below-cloud scavenging of aerosol ionic species over a tropical rural atmosphere in India

The temporal variation in concentrations of major water soluble ionic species has been studied from several rain events occurred over Gadanki (13.5 °N, 79.2 °E), located in tropical semi arid region in southern India. The contribution from rain-out (in cloud) and wash-out (below cloud) processes to the total removal of ionic species by rain events is also estimated using the pattern of variations of ionic species within an individual event. A number of rain samples were collected from each rain event during June–November in 2006, 2007 and 2008. On average, nearly 20% of the total NH ₄ ⁺ and non-sea SO ₄ ^2? is removed by in-cloud scavenging, suggesting that their removal by “below cloud” washout is relatively dominant. In contrast Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, NO ₃ ^? and sea-SO ₄ ^2? are mainly removed by below-cloud scavenging or wash-out process. A significant variation in the acidity was observed within rain events with successive precipitation showing higher acidity at the final stage of the precipitation due to partial neutralization of non-sea SO ₄ ^2? . Overall, greater influence of both terrestrial and anthropogenic sources is recorded in the rain events compared to that from marine sources.     

3D Evolution of a Filament Disappearance Event Observed by STEREO

A filament disappearance event was observed on 22 May 2008 during our recent campaign JOP 178. The filament, situated in the Southern Hemisphere, showed sinistral chirality consistent with the hemispheric rule. The event was well observed by several observatories, in particular by THEMIS. One day, before the disappearance, Hα observations showed up- and down-flows in adjacent locations along the filament, which suggest plasma motions along twisted flux rope. THEMIS and GONG observations show shearing photospheric motions leading to magnetic flux canceling around barbs. STEREO A, B spacecraft with separation angle 52.4°, showed quite different views of this untwisting flux rope in He ii 304 Å images. Here, we reconstruct the three-dimensional geometry of the filament during its eruption phase using STEREO EUV He ii 304 Å images and find that the filament was highly inclined to the solar normal. The He ii 304 Å movies show individual threads, which oscillate and rise to an altitude of about 120 Mm with apparent velocities of about 100 km?s^?1 during the rapid evolution phase. Finally, as the flux rope expands into the corona, the filament disappears by becoming optically thin to undetectable levels. No CME was detected by STEREO, only a faint CME was recorded by LASCO at the beginning of the disappearance phase at 02:00 UT, which could be due to partial filament eruption. Further, STEREO Fe xii 195 Å images showed bright loops beneath the filament prior to the disappearance phase, suggesting magnetic reconnection below the flux rope.     

Software for interactively visualizing solar vector magnetograms of udaipur solar observatory

The Solar Vector Magnetograph (SVM) at Udaipur Solar Observatory saw its first light in April 2005. The retrieval of vector fields from the imaging spectro-polarimetric observational data requires a substantial amount of computer post-processing. The GUI-based data reduction and analysis software have been developed to make the data processing pipeline user-friendly and less time-consuming. In this paper we describe these software packages.     

Sensitivity of physical parameterizations on prediction of tropical cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal using WRF model

Comprehensive sensitivity analyses on physical parameterization schemes of Weather Research Forecast (WRF-ARW core) model have been carried out for the prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones by taking the example of cyclone Nargis, which formed over the Bay of Bengal and hit Myanmar on 02 May 2008, causing widespread damages in terms of human and economic losses. The model performances are also evaluated with different initial conditions of 12?h intervals starting from the cyclogenesis to the near landfall time. The initial and boundary conditions for all the model simulations are drawn from the global operational analysis and forecast products of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-GFS) available for the public at 1° lon/lat resolution. The results of the sensitivity analyses indicate that a combination of non-local parabolic type exchange coefficient PBL scheme of Yonsei University (YSU), deep and shallow convection scheme with mass flux approach for cumulus parameterization (Kain-Fritsch), and NCEP operational cloud microphysics scheme with diagnostic mixed phase processes (Ferrier), predicts better track and intensity as compared against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimates. Further, the final choice of the physical parameterization schemes selected from the above sensitivity experiments is used for model integration with different initial conditions. The results reveal that the cyclone track, intensity and time of landfall are well simulated by the model with an average intensity error of about 8?hPa, maximum wind error of 12?m?s^?1and track error of 77?km. The simulations also show that the landfall time error and intensity error are decreasing with delayed initial condition, suggesting that the model forecast is more dependable when the cyclone approaches the coast. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are also well simulated by the model and comparable with the TRMM estimates.     

Analysis of long-term ozone trend over Delhi and its meteorological adjustment

Present study deals with the statistical analysis of long-term ground level ozone (O₃) trend and the influence of meteorological variables on its variation over Delhi, India. Daily mean and maximum of O₃ and meteorological data, obtained from India Meteorological Department, were arranged for the period of 9 years (1998–2006). Based on the preliminary correlation study of all the data with O₃, six variables viz. daily maximum temperature, daily average relative humidity, dew point, wind speed, visibility, and total sunshine were selected. Classical additive time series decomposition technique was used to obtain seasonally adjusted long-term trend. To analyze the masking effect of meteorology, adjustment was made using Kolmogorov–Zurbenko filters followed by stepwise regression analysis to the smoothed series of O₃ maximum and meteorological variables, which showed that long-term trend was independent of sunshine duration. Results indicate a significant increasing trend with annual increase of 1.13 % for O₃ mean and 3 % for O₃ maximum. Annual deseasonalized trend for seasonal cycle shows bimodal oscillations. About 43 % of O₃ variation was explained by the selected meteorological factors and rest of variation attributed to factors like emission of precursor gases, pollutant transport, policy changes, etc. Among the three tested regression models, performance of Model 2 with variable temperature, wind speed, and visibility was found to be best that resulted in lowering of O₃ trend. Large variability (23 %) was explained by the variable visibility depicted that the emission of primary pollutants not only provides the precursor gases but also control the local photochemical reactions.     

Stokes polarimetry at the Kodaikanal tower tunnel telescope

A Stokes Polarimeter has been developed using a masked CCD arrangement for the measurement of the vector magnetic field of sunspots. Charge shifting within the CCD is used to record near simultaneous orthogonal polarisation. The testing of the Stokes Polarimeter and the behavior of the integrated system combined with the Kodaikanal tower tunnel telescope will be discussed.     

Measurement of vector magnetic fields

The observations of Stokes line profiles require an accurate knowledge of the instrumental polarisation caused by optical components in the path of the light beam. In this context we present a theoretical approach to the instrumental polarisation caused by the 3-mirror coelostat system of the Kodaikanal Solar Tower.Collaborative Program in Astronomy and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560 012 India.     

Evaluation of magnetic shear in off-disk center active regions

We analyze the changes that projection effects produce in the evaluation of magnetic shear in off-disk center active regions by comparing angular shear calculated in image plane and heliographic coordinates. We describe the procedure for properly evaluating magnetic shear by transforming the observed vector magnetic field into the heliographic system and then apply this procedure to evaluate magnetic shear along the magnetic neutral line in an active region that was observed on 1984 April 24 at a longitude offset of -45°. In particular, we show that the number of critically sheared pixels along an east-west directed segment of the neutral line in the leader sunspot group changes from 16 in the image plane magnetogram to 14 in the heliographic magnetogram. We also show that the critical shear as calculated in the image plane served as a good predictor for the location of flaring activity since the flare ribbons of the great flare of April 24 bracketed the inversion line where the critical shear was located. These results indicate that for this particular region, projection effects did not significantly affect the evaluation of critical shear.