A System for Assessing and Forecasting the Bioproductivity of Lacustrine-Type Ecosystems

Water Resources - A system has been developed for diagnosing the biological production of lake ecosystems with input parameters: geographic latitude, specific watershed, normal annual air...     

Paleoclimatic implications of glacial and postglacial refugia for Pinus pumila in western Beringia

Palynological results from Julietta Lake currently provide the most direct evidence to support the existence of a glacial refugium for Pinus pumila in mountains of southwestern Beringia. Both percentages and accumulation rates indicate the evergreen shrub survived until at least ∼ 19,000 ¹⁴C yr BP in the Upper Kolyma region. Percentage data suggest numbers dwindled into the late glaciation, whereas pollen accumulation rates point towards a more rapid demise shortly after ∼ 19,000 ¹⁴C yr BP. Pinus pumila did not re-establish in any great numbers until ∼ 8100 ¹⁴C yr BP, despite the local presence ∼ 9800 ¹⁴C yr BP of Larixdahurica, which shares similar summer temperature requirements. The postglacial thermal maximum (in Beringia ∼ 11,000-9000 ¹⁴C yr BP) provided Pinus pumila shrubs with equally harsh albeit different conditions for survival than those present during the LGM. Regional records indicate that in this time of maximum warmth Pinus pumila likely sheltered in a second, lower-elevation refugium. Paleoclimatic models and modern ecology suggest that shifts in the nature of seasonal transitions and not only seasonal extremes have played important roles in the history of Pinus pumila over the last ∼ 21,000 ¹⁴C yr BP.     

Relationship between the velocity ellipsoids of galactic-disk stars and their ages and metallicities

The dependences of the velocity ellipsoids of F-G stars of the thin disk of the Galaxy on their ages and metallicities are analyzed based on the new version of the Geneva-Copenhagen Catalog. The age dependences of the major, middle, and minor axes of the ellipsoids, and also of the dispersion of the total residual velocity, obey power laws with indices 0.25, 0.29, 0.32, and 0.27 (with uncertainties ±0.02). Due to the presence of thick-disk objects, the analogous indices for all nearby stars are about a factor of 1.5 larger. Attempts to explain such values are usually based on modeling relaxation processes in the Galactic disk. Elimination of stars in the most numerous moving groups from the sample slightly reduces the corresponding indices (0.22, 0.26, 0.27, and 0.24). Limiting the sample to stars within 60 pc of the Sun, so that the sample can be considered to be complete, leaves both the velocity ellipsoids and their age dependences virtually unchanged. With increasing age, the velocity ellipsoid increases in size and becomes appreciablymore spherical, turns toward the direction of the Galactic center, and loses angular momentum. The shape of the velocity ellipsoid remains far from equilibrium. With increasing metallicity, the velocity ellipsoid for stars of mixed age increases in size, displays a weak tendency to become more spherical, and turns toward the direction of the Galactic center (with these changes occurring substantially more rapidly in the transition through the metallicity [Fe/H]≈−0.25). Thus, the ellipsoid changes similarly to the way it does with age; however, with decreasing metallicity, the rotational velocity about the Galactic center monotonically increases, rather than decreases (!). Moreover, the power-law indices for the age dependences of the axes depend on the metallicity, and display a maximum near [Fe/H] ≈−0.1. The age dependences of all the velocity-ellipsoid parameters for stars with equal metallicity are roughly the same. It is proposed that the appearance of a metallicity dependence of the velocity ellipsoids for thin-disk stars, recorded from the close to the Sun, is most likely due to the radial migration of stars.     

Particulate dispersion from sources within a forest

Particulate dispersion from sources within a 10- to 13-m tall pine forest was studied experimentally at Brookhaven National Laboratory using stained ragweed pollen and other tracers ranging from 14 to 58 m in size. Forty-seven continuous point source releases lasting from 22 to 55 min were made at heights from 1.75 to 14.0 m from locations having a long fetch through the forest. In most experiments, differently colored ragweed pollen were emitted simultaneously from three locations. In other tests, several particle types were released from a single point. The sampling network consisted of 119 rotoslide samplers at heights from 0.5 to 21.0 m at 57 positions within and at the edge of the forest. Deposition to the ground was sampled by greased microscope slides at each position. Meteorological measurements were taken in and near the forest.Data were classified by particle characteristics, source height and meteorological parameters. Concentration patterns were illustrated on scale diagrams of the sampling grid. Changes in centerline and crosswind integrated concentrations, plume width and height, mass flux, deposition and deposition velocity were studied as a function of distance, particle size and wind speed. Results were compared to those obtained from similar releases over open terrain.In the forest, vertical predominates over lateral dispersion and considerable interchange occurs through the canopy. Flow is channelled somewhat by vegetation density differences but is generally in the direction of the mean wind above the forest. No systematic turning of the wind with height was observed. Most particles are lost to the foliage rather than to the ground and large particles are lost more rapidly than smaller ones. Rate of change in mass flux is similar to that over open terrain and is greater with light than with stronger wind speeds.This research was carried out under the auspices of the New York State Museum and Science Service and the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (now Energy Research and Development Administration) and was partially supported by Research Grant No. R-800677 from the Division of Meteorology, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.     

New Models for Long Range Forecasts of Summer Monsoon Rainfall over North West and Peninsular India

Summary New models based on (a) Multivariate Principal Component Regression (PCR) (b) Neural Network (NN) and (c) Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) techniques were developed for long-range forecasts of summer monsoon (June–September) rainfall over two homogeneous regions of India, viz., North West India and Peninsular India. The PCR and NN models were developed with two different data sets. One set consisted 42 years (1958–1999) of data with 8 predictors and the other, 49 years (1951–1999) of data with 6 predictors. The predictors were subjected to the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) before model development. Two different neural networks were designed with 2 and 3 hidden neurons. To avoid the nonlinear instability, 20 ensemble runs were made while training the network and the ensemble mean results are discussed. The LDA model was developed with 42 years of data (1958–1999) for classifying three rainfall intervals with equal prior probability of 0.33. Both the PCR and NN models showed useful forecast skill for NW India and Peninsular India. Models with 8 predictors performed better than the models with only 6 predictors. The NN model with 3 hidden neurons performed better than model with 2 hidden neurons. For NW India, the NN model performed better than the PCR model. The RMSE of the NN model and PCR model with 8 predictors for NW India (Peninsular India) during the independent period 1984–99 was 12.5% (12.2%) and 12.6% (11.5%), respectively. Corresponding figures for the models with 6 predictors are 15.0% (13.0%) and 13.9% (11.4%) respectively. During the independent period, model errors were large in 1991, 1994, 1997 and 1999. However all the models showed deteriorating predictive skill after 1988, both for NW India and Peninsular India. The LDA model correctly classified 62% of grouped cases for NW India and Peninsular India. The LDA model showed better skill in classifying deficient rainfall (< − 8%) over NW India and excess rainfall (> 3%) over Peninsular India. Received October 2, 1999 Revised December 28, 1999     

The Role of Forests in the Implementation of Russia’s Low-Carbon Development Strategy

Doklady Earth Sciences - The potential role of forests in achieving carbon neutrality in the Russian Federation by 2060 is analyzed. It is shown that the key rate in the Strategy for the...     

Stability and phase relations of nonstoichiometric clinopyroxenes in the join diopside-Ca-Eskola component at high pressures

The stability of nonstoichiometric clinopyroxenes in the Di-CaEsk join was experimentally studied, and phase diagrams were constructed for this join at pressures of 2.0 and 3.0 GPa. It was found that melting in the diopside part of the join occurs at anomalously low temperatures, and nonstoichiometric clinopyroxene coexists with a phase approaching diopside in composition. Phase relations along the Di-CaEsk join can be described and consistently interpreted only assuming that the diopside phase (α-diopside) is thermodynamically stable. The following phase volumes were observed along the solidus of the join at a pressure of 3.0 GPa: Cpx, αDi+Cpx, αDi+Cpx+Qtz, αDi+Cpx+Grt+Qtz, Cpx+Grt+Qtz, Cpx+Grt+Ky+Qtz, Grt+Ky+Qtz. Melting occurs via the eutectic reaction αDi+Cpx+Grt+Qtz=L at a temperature of about 1200°C in the diopside part of the system and via the eutectic reaction Cpx+Grt+Ky+Qtz=L at a temperature of 1400°C in the calcium-rich part of the system. At a pressure of 2.0 GPa, melting occurs at temperatures of 1200–1300°C via the eutectic reaction αDi+Cpx+ An + Qtz=L. The invariant equilibrium (L, An, Cpx, Grt, αDi, Qtz) lies within the pressure range 2.0–3.0 GPa. Nonstoichiometric clinopyroxenes form complex solid solutions, the compositions of which are not strictly confined to the Di-CaEsk join and depend on temperature, pressure, and phase association. Grossular garnets coexist with nonstoichiometric clinopyroxenes and α-diopside.     

Deep structure of the Racha earthquake source zone from seismic tomography data

The Racha earthquake of 1991 was the strongest of the earthquakes recorded in the Caucasus. It was studied by an international epicentral expedition. Unique data gathered by this expedition included records of aftershocks whose swarm was very intense. A 3-D velocity model is obtained from analysis of these data by the method of local earthquake tomography. The ancient crystalline basement and the sedimentary-volcanic Mesozoic-Cenozoic cover could be identified from cross sections of the P wave field. The eastern and western boundaries of an uplift in the basement of the Dzirulskii Massif are delineated. Linear low velocity heterogeneities correlating with the active Kakheti-Lechkhumi fault zone and two Trans-Caucasian linear fault zones are discovered in the basement. The cloud of aftershock hypocenters is shown to correlate with a reflector coinciding with the cover-basement interface.