Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.     

基于倾斜摄影测量的大比例尺三维测图技术

目前,城市大比例尺地形图更新主要采用全野外的测量方法,不仅耗费大量的劳动力,并且效率低下。旋翼机和倾斜摄影测量技术的快速发展,为城市大比例尺地形图的测绘与更新提供了全新的技术手段。本文以滕州市城区约10 km2的1∶500地形图测绘项目为例,采用大疆精灵4 Pro旋翼机进行数据获取,Smart 3D软件进行空三加密及三维建模,最后在EPS软件中进行三维测图,并对地形图成果进行了精度检核,验证了技术方案的可行性,为同类项目提供了有益参考。     

科尔沁湿草甸参考作物蒸散发模拟分析

为探明气候变化下干旱半干旱地区湿草甸参考作物蒸散发(ET₀)影响因子,使用FAO 56 P-M模型对科尔沁湿草甸ET₀进行模拟,利用涡度相关系统对模型的适用性进行评价,并通过通径分析及指标敏感性分析对ET₀的影响因子进行辨识。结果表明:(1)小时尺度模拟精度最高,日尺度次之,月尺度较差,小时尺度上晴、阴、雨3种天气条件下模拟效果不同,晴天最优,阴雨天较差。(2)ET₀年内变化呈单峰曲线状,生长季明显高于非生长季,集中在3—10月,占全年89.79%。生长季典型晴天ET₀逐小时分布特征遵循倒“U”单峰型变化规律。(3)通径分析结果显示,对ET₀的通径系数以及对回归方程估测可靠程度E的总贡献均表现为VPD(饱和水汽压差) > T_min(最低气温) > R_n(冠层表面净辐射)>u₂(2 m高度风速),即VPD为影响ET₀最重要的因子;指标敏感性分析中,在去除VPD后引起的E变化最大,说明ET₀对VPD的变化最为敏感,其次为u₂、T_min和R_n。     

海洋大数据处理软件体系结构设计

针对海洋数据格式与海洋信息应用系统的异构性,提出一种基于移动代码(Mobile code)的海洋大数据处理软件体系结构。首先,利用统一的网络服务接口与数据交换格式,规范海洋信息应用系统之间的数据访问与共享。其次,通过移动代码将海洋大数据的处理过程移至云端,提高信息处理效率。应用示例实现了异构海洋信息应用系统间的互操作,并且缩短了海量数据的处理时间,验证了该体系结构在海洋大数据处理中的通用性与有效性。     

1970-2019年黄浦江上游年最高潮位变化及驱动因子

黄浦江年最高潮位变化关系到上海市的防洪安全,本文基于米市渡站1970－2019年年最高潮位、太湖流域降水量等数据,研究了近50 年来黄浦江上游年最高潮位的变化趋势和变异特性、发生频率变化以及潮位变化的驱动因子。结果表明：年最高潮位在1970－2019年总体呈显著上升趋势,上升幅度为81 cm,年均上升1.62 cm。1995年之后出现跳跃式的波动上升,1996－2002年相对1995年之前较大幅度上升,2003－2011年相比1996－2002年出现较明显下降,之后又较大幅度上升。随着潮位升高,各频率对应的最高潮位均较大幅度增加,升高幅度均达0.9 m以上,五十年一遇、百年一遇、千年一遇高潮位分别由1970年条件下的3.77 m、3.81 m、3.94 m升高到2019年条件下的4.71 m、4.75 m、4.92 m。与此同时,相同潮位下的重现期急剧减小,高潮位发生频率大幅度增加。分析认为,年最高潮位升高受气候变化和人类活动的综合影响,1970－1995年主要受降水量变化等气候因素的影响,1996－2019年主要受水利工程、台风频率增加等因素的影响,尤其是太湖流域太浦河等工程的修建起重要作用。     

中国主要入海河口咸潮入侵变化特征

长江口、钱塘江口和珠江口是受咸潮影响较为严重的区域。本文利用全国沿海海平面变化影响调查、沿海水文观测等数据,分析了近十年长江口、珠江口和钱塘江口咸潮入侵的变化特征及影响。分析结果表明:(1) 2009-2018年,长江口咸潮入侵次数和持续时间均呈减少趋势,该时段长江口共监测到约48次咸潮入侵过程,发生时间集中在9-10月至翌年5月,其中3月和11月入侵次数较多,分别为12次和7次。(2)钱塘江口咸潮入侵过程受沿海季节性海平面影响显著,12月至翌年3月为钱塘江口季节性低海平面期,4-7月上旬径流量较大,上述两个时期钱塘江口受咸潮入侵的影响均较小,7月下旬至11月上旬,钱塘江口处于季节性高海平面期,是咸潮影响的集中时段。(3) 2009-2018年,珠江口共监测到约57次咸潮入侵过程,发生时间集中在9-10月至翌年3-4月,其中1月、2月和10月咸潮入侵次数较多,均超过10次,2015年至今咸潮持续时间明显增加。(4)咸潮入侵次数和持续时间与基础海面和径流量等密切相关,咸潮入侵影响三大河口沿线水厂供水以及工农业生产取水,给沿岸城市的居民生活、工农业生产和渔业养殖等造成一定不利影响。     

浙江朱家尖岛东沙海滩对热带风暴“娜基莉”的响应及风暴后的恢复

海滩对风暴的响应及风暴后海滩的恢复过程一直以来都是国内外海滩研究的热点。本文通过对浙江舟山市朱家尖岛东沙海滩地形地貌的现场调查,对比分析了热带风暴"娜基莉"影响下东沙海滩剖面的蚀积变化,探讨了海滩在热带风暴发生后的恢复情况。结果表明,在"娜基莉"影响期间,因风暴浪为向岸浪,东沙海滩几乎遭受全线侵蚀,12个剖面单宽侵蚀总量为73.46 m3/m,其中海滩直线段较两个遮蔽段侵蚀显著。由于海滩在风暴前进方向的左侧,且"娜基莉"距东沙较远,使得东沙海滩普遍侵蚀但强度较小。东沙海滩在热带风暴后的恢复过程中,不同部位的地貌调整和冲淤变化不同,下岬角遮蔽段基本趋于稳定,直线段和上岬角遮蔽段在恢复过程中因受海滩季节性调整的影响呈现持续侵蚀。     

青岛沿海24种鱼类耳石秤量特征与鱼体大小关系

研究中经常会用测量耳石称量特征推算饵料鱼类的形态参数,而青岛沿海鱼类相关的研究较少,因此作者根据2015年3、5、8月3个航次在青岛近海的拖网调查数据,分析了捕获的24种共1002尾鱼的耳石秤量特征(耳石长、耳石宽和耳石质量)和鱼体大小(体长、体质量)的关系。结果表明,渔获24种鱼类分属5个目、14个科、24种鱼类的体长体质量呈显著幂函数相关,相关系数R~2的范围为0.779～0.997,幂指数b的范围为2.376～3.591,平均值为3.048±0.327,其中黄鲫(Setipinna taty)等11种鱼类的b值均大于3(P0.05),为正异速生长,其余13种鱼类的b值小于3(P0.05),呈负异速增长。耳石宽-鱼体长的相关性比耳石长-鱼体长的相关性要好,仅有3种鱼(饰鳍斜棘鱼衔(Repomucenus ornatipinnis)、矛尾虾虎鱼(Chaeturichthys stigmatias)和焦氏舌鳎Cynoglossus lighti)未呈现显著相关关系。在耳石质量-鱼体质量的相关关系中,9种鱼(如皮氏叫姑(Johnius belengerii)、扁斜棘?(Repomucenus planus)、石鲽(Kareius bicoloratus)呈显著相关(只是列举了一部分), 5种鱼(锦鳚(Pholis nebulosus)、矛尾虾虎鱼(Chaeturichthys stigmatias)、斑尾刺虾虎鱼(Synechogobius ommaturus)、焦氏舌鳎(Cynoglossus lighti))在现有样品情况下未呈现显著相关关系。     

Effects of Anthropogenic Disturbance on Sediment Organic Carbon Mineralization Under Different Water Conditions in Coastal Wetland of a Subtropical Estuary

The changes in soil organic carbon(C) mineralization as affected by anthropogenic disturbance directly determine the role of soils as C source or sink in the global C budget. The objectives of this study were to investigate the effects of anthropogenic disturbance(aquaculture pond, pollutant discharge and agricultural activity) on soil organic C mineralization under different water conditions in the Minjiang River estuary wetland, Southeast China. The results showed that the organic C mineralization in the wetland soils was significantly affected by human disturbance and water conditions(P 0.001), and the interaction between human disturbance activities and water conditions was also significant(P 0.01). The C mineralization rate and the cumulative mineralized carbon dioxide-carbon(CO_2-C)(at the 49th day) ranked from highest to lowest as follows: Phragmites australis wetland soil aquaculture pond sediment soil near the discharge outlet rice paddy soil. This indicated that human disturbance inhibited the mineralization of C in soils of the Minjiang River estuary wetland, and the inhibition increased with the intensity of human disturbance. The data for cumulative mineralized CO_2-C showed a good fit(R~2 0.91) to the first-order kinetic model C_t = C_0(1 – exp(–kt)). The kinetic parameters C_0, k and C_0 k were significantly affected by human disturbance and water conditions. In addition, the total amount of mineralized C(in 49 d) was positively related to C_0, C_0 k and electrical conductivity of soils. These findings indicated that anthropogenic disturbance suppressed the organic C mineralization potential in subtropical coastal wetland soils, and changes of water pattern as affected by human activities in the future would have a strong influence on C cycling in the subtropical estuarine wetlands.