Ocean urea fertilization for carbon credits poses high ecological risks

The proposed plan for enrichment of the Sulu Sea, Philippines, a region of rich marine biodiversity, with thousands of tonnes of urea in order to stimulate algal blooms and sequester carbon is flawed for multiple reasons. Urea is preferentially used as a nitrogen source by some cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates, many of which are neutrally or positively buoyant. Biological pumps to the deep sea are classically leaky, and the inefficient burial of new biomass makes the estimation of a net loss of carbon from the atmosphere questionable at best. The potential for growth of toxic dinoflagellates is also high, as many grow well on urea and some even increase their toxicity when grown on urea. Many toxic dinoflagellates form cysts which can settle to the sediment and germinate in subsequent years, forming new blooms even without further fertilization. If large-scale blooms do occur, it is likely that they will contribute to hypoxia in the bottom waters upon decomposition. Lastly, urea production requires fossil fuel usage, further limiting the potential for net carbon sequestration. The environmental and economic impacts are potentially great and need to be rigorously assessed.     

Homogenization of a Darcy–Stokes system modeling vuggy porous media

We derive a macroscopic model for single-phase, incompressible, viscous fluid flow in a porous medium with small cavities called vugs. We model the vuggy medium on the microscopic scale using Stokes equations within the vugular inclusions, Darcy's law within the porous rock, and a Beavers–Joseph–Saffman boundary condition on the interface between the two regions. We assume periodicity of the medium and obtain uniform energy estimates independent of the period. Through a two-scale homogenization limit as the period tends to zero, we obtain a macroscopic Darcy's law governing the medium on larger scales. We also develop some needed generalizations of the two-scale convergence theory needed for our bimodal medium, including a two-scale convergence result on the Darcy–Stokes interface. The macroscopic Darcy permeability is computable from the solution of a cell problem. An analytic solution to this problem in a simple geometry suggests that: (1) flow along vug channels is primarily Poiseuille with a small perturbation related to the Beavers–Joseph slip, and (2) flow that alternates from vug to matrix behaves as if the vugs have infinite permeability.     

Analytical Solutions for Determination of Non-Steady- State and Steady-State Capture Zones

This paper presents analytical solutions for determining non-steady-state capture zones produced by a single recovery well and steady-state capture zones produced by multiple recovery wells. Analysis of non-steady-slate capture zones is based on the lime-dependent location of caplure zone stagnation points and the geometric similarity between steady-slate and non-steady-state capture zones. The analytical solution of steady-state capture zones is obtained from spatial variations of discharge potential across the capture zone boundary. Both capture zone analyses are based on the assumptions of uniform flow field with a constant hydraulic conductivity, the Dupuit assumption of insignificant vertical flow, a negligible delayed yield, and a fully penetrating well with a constant pumping rate. For a ground water pump-and-trcat remediation program, the pumping rate and well location design variables can be adjusted to ensure containment of the ground water contaminant plume.     

Chronic and episodic acidification of streams along the Appalachian Trail corridor,eastern United States

Acidic atmospheric deposition has adversely affected aquatic ecosystems globally. As emissions and deposition of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) have declined in recent decades across North America and Europe, ecosystem recovery is evident in many surface waters. However, persistent chronic and episodic acidification remain important concerns in vulnerable regions. We evaluated acidification in 269 headwater streams during 2010–2012 along the Appalachian Trail (AT) that transits several ecoregions and is located downwind of high levels of S and N emission sources. Discharge was estimated by matching sampled streams to those of a nearby gaged stream and assuming equivalent daily mean flow percentiles. Charge balance acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) values were adjusted to the 15th (Q15) and 85th flow percentiles (Q85) by applying the ANC/discharge slope among sample pairs collected at each stream. A site-based approach was applied to streams sampled twice or more and a second regression-based approach to streams sampled once to estimate episodic acidification magnitudes as the ANC difference from Q15 to Q85. Streams with ANC <0 μeq/L doubled from 16% to 32% as discharge increased from Q15 to Q85 according to the site-based approach. The proportion of streams with ANC <0 μeq/L at low flow and high flow decreased from north to south. Base cation dilution explained the greatest amount of episodic acidification among streams and variation in sulfate (SO₄²⁻) concentrations was a secondary explanatory variable. Episodic SO₄²⁻ patterns varied geographically with dilution dominant in northern streams underlain by soils developed in glacial sediment and increased concentrations dominant in southern streams with older, highly weathered soils. Episodic acidification increased as low-flow ANC increased, exceeding 90 μeq/L in 25% of streams. Episodic increases in ANC were the dominant pattern in streams with low-flow ANC values <30 μeq/L. Chronic and episodic acidification remain an ecological concern among AT streams. The approach developed here could be applied to estimate the magnitude and extent of chronic and episodic acidification in other regions recovering from decreasing levels of atmospheric S and N deposition.     

Efficacy of an In‐Well Sonde to Determine Magnetic Susceptibility of Aquifer Sediment

Magnetite is a natural component of many aquifers. Abiotic degradation of chlorinated solvents by magnetite can be an important mechanism for natural attenuation of these contaminants. The quantity of magnetite in aquifer materials can be estimated by measuring the magnetic susceptibility of the materials. This is most commonly done by determining the magnetic susceptibility of core samples in an analytical laboratory using a magnetic susceptibility meter. Unfortunately, the cost of acquiring core samples often makes an evaluation of abiotic degradation by magnetite economically unrealistic. Downhole sondes (probes) are available for the determination of magnetic susceptibility. In this study, a downhole sonde was evaluated as an affordable alternative to acquiring and analyzing core samples. The sonde was introduced into 10 monitoring wells. The data from the sonde were then compared to data from core samples that were collected from the same elevation as the sonde data. The core samples analyzed in the laboratory were used as the standard against which the sonde data were compared. The downhole sonde reported values that were similar to values reported on core samples. At most wells, the means of the two measurements could not be distinguished at the 95% confidence interval. When the means could be distinguished, they still agreed within a factor of two.     

Evaluation of surface wind and flux analysis techniques using conventional data in marine cyclones

Data from seven storms from the Storm Transfer and Response Experiment in November 1980 have been used to evaluate the relative accuracy of surface wind and flux fields based on two analysis procedures. Two essentially independent techniques were used; objective analysis which is based on composite data taken at several synoptic intervals to enhance the number of observations and processing carefully hand-analyzed (subjective) surface pressure analyses into wind and flux fields using a planetary boundary layer (PBL) similarity model. Scale and accuracy limits imposed by instrument accuracy, sampling error, and gridding and analysis procedures are evaluated for each of these techniques by comparison with independent data and with each other.Wind field differences between the objective composite analysis and the PBL model predictions are found to be comparable to the measurement-related uncertainty in the observations. Unresolved variability in the 10–100 km scale of the dynamic and thermodynamic variables produces the main source of error in both the objective and model wind fields. Additional wind field differences are contributed by PBL and gradient wind assumptions used in the PBL model. Wind differences between either of the two analyses and individual observations are about ±3 m s⁻¹ and ±30° in the mean, and can be greater than ±5 m s⁻¹ and ±50° for small regions. Comparable differences are found between the two wind field analyses.The wind and thermodynamic field differences combine to produce substantial differences in the derived fields. Mean differences of ±19W m⁻² and ±41 W m⁻² for the fluxes of sensible and latent heat, respectively, represent differences of about 50% of the mean fluxes, with local differences as much as double or triple the magnitude of these means. Fronts are equally well represented by the two analyses, but values of divergence and curl of surface stress may differ by a factor of 2 or more in regions of fronts. These local differences in the derived fields result primarily from the large wind field differences in these inadequately resolved regions.     

Relative contribution of foliar and fine root pine litter to the molecular composition of soil organic matter after in situ degradation

The influence of litter quality on soil organic matter (SOM) stabilization rate and pathways remains unclear. We used ¹³C/¹⁵N labeled litter addition and Curie-point pyrolysis gas chromatography–mass spectrometry combustion-isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Py–GC–MS–C–IRMS) to explore the transformation of litter with different composition and decay rate (ponderosa pine needle vs. fine root) to SOM during 18 months in a temperate conifer forest mineral (A horizon) soil. Based on ¹³C Py–GC–MS–C–IRMS the initial litter and bulk soil had ∼1/3 of the total pyrolysis products identified in common. The majority was related either to carbohydrates or was non-specific in origin. In bulk soil, carbohydrates had similar levels of enrichment after needle input and fine root input, while the non-specific products were more enriched after needle input. In the humin SOM fraction (260 yr C turnover time) we found only carbohydrate and alkyl C-derived compounds and greater ¹³C enrichment in the “carbohydrate” pool after fine root decomposition. ¹⁵N Py–GC–MS–C–IRMS of humic substances showed that root litter contributed more than needle litter to the enrichment of specific protein markers during initial decomposition.We found little evidence for the selective preservation of plant compounds considered to be recalcitrant. Our findings suggest an indirect role for decomposing plant material composition, where microbial alteration of fine root litter seems to favor greater initial stabilization of microbially derived C and N in SOM fractions with long mean turnover times, such as humin, compared to needles with a faster decay rate.     

CO2 emissions and their bearing on China＇s economic development： the long view

Greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions in China have aroused much interest, and not least in recent evidence of their reduction. Our intent is to place that reduction in a larger context, that of the process of industrialization. A lengthy time perspective is combined with a cross-sectional approachChina plus five other countries-and addressed through two general models. The findings are salutary. First, they suggest that a diversified economic structure is consistent with diminished intensity in energy use. Secondly, and the obverse of the first, they imply that a diversified energy structure promotes reductions in CO2 emissions. Finally, one is led inevitably to the conclusion that, together, the findings point to a path for countries to transform their economies while at the same time undertaking to drastically moderate their energy use, switching from a pattern of heavy carbon emissions to one in which lighter carbon emissions prevail. The implications of such findings for environmental management are enormous.     

Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part I: Forward models

Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights.     

Distribution and Variability of the Meiobenthic Assemblages near the Korean Polymetallic Nodule Claim Area of the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone (Subequatorial NE Pacific)

This study was carried out as part of a baseline long-term environmental project in the proposed mining areas for an environmental impact assessment of future mining in the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone (CCFZ). The community structure and distributional pattern of meiobenthos were investigated in the deep-sea bottom of the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone of the northeastern Pacific in July 1998, 1999, 2001, 2003 and August 2004, 2005. Twenty one meiobenthic groups were found at the stations in the study area. The most abundant meiobenthos comprised nematodes followed by benthic foraminiferans and harpacticoid copepods. The maximum density of meiobenthos was 306 ind/10 cm² at the station located at 11°N (water depth, 4833 m), and the minimum density was 6 ind/10 cm² at the station located at 14°N (water depth, 5037 m). Oligotrophic conditions in the CCFZ seem to directly reflect the lower standing stocks of meiobenthos in the CCFZ compared to other deep-sea plains of similar depth. The latitudinal distribution pattern of meiobenthos in the study area seemed to be related with surface water primary productivity, which was connected to the water circulation pattern of the Pacific Ocean near the Equator, diverging at 8ºN latitude and converging at 5°N. The horizontal distribution of meiobenthic organisms in the study area showed high densities at the stations within 135–136°W. The densities of meiobenthic organismas within the CCFZ were high at stations with few manganese nodules on the sediment surface at low-latitude sites. In 1998, the observed relative high values of meiobenthic abundance were at stations from 5° to 6°N. Other stations from 7° to 10°N showed no significant fluctuations during the interannual sampling periods. It is considered that the inter-annual fluctuation of meiobenthos abundance is intimately related with a regime shift that may have occurred in the north Pacific between 1998 and 1999, the El Niño period. Vertical distribution of meiobenthic organisms showed the highest individual numbers in the surface sediment layers of 0～2 cm depth and a steep decreasing trend as sediment becomes deeper at the stations of high latitude located in 16～17°N. Size distribution analyses showed that organisms that fit into the sieve mesh size of 0.063 mm were abundant.