Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part II: Inverse models

A Bayesian network model has been developed to simulate a relatively simple problem of wave propagation in the surf zone (detailed in Part I). Here, we demonstrate that this Bayesian model can provide both inverse modeling and data-assimilation solutions for predicting offshore wave heights and depth estimates given limited wave-height and depth information from an onshore location. The inverse method is extended to allow data assimilation using observational inputs that are not compatible with deterministic solutions of the problem. These inputs include sand bar positions (instead of bathymetry) and estimates of the intensity of wave breaking (instead of wave-height observations). Our results indicate that wave breaking information is essential to reduce prediction errors. In many practical situations, this information could be provided from a shore-based observer or from remote-sensing systems. We show that various combinations of the assimilated inputs significantly reduce the uncertainty in the estimates of water depths and wave heights in the model domain. Application of the Bayesian network model to new field data demonstrated significant predictive skill (R² = 0.7) for the inverse estimate of a month-long time series of offshore wave heights. The Bayesian inverse results include uncertainty estimates that were shown to be most accurate when given uncertainty in the inputs (e.g., depth and tuning parameters). Furthermore, the inverse modeling was extended to directly estimate tuning parameters associated with the underlying wave-process model. The inverse estimates of the model parameters not only showed an offshore wave height dependence consistent with results of previous studies but the uncertainty estimates of the tuning parameters also explain previously reported variations in the model parameters.     

The U.P. Mammoth Site,Carbon County,Wyoming, USA: More Questions than Answers

In the summer of 1960, mammoth bones were discovered by a dragline operator in southern Wyoming at the Union Pacific (U.P.) Mammoth site. Although subsequent archaeological work during 1960 and 1961 identified artifacts in association with the mammoth remains, many authors have since questioned the nature of that association. Also, little has been published about the site other than a brief article in National Geographic Magazine in 1962. In this paper, we present additional information on the U.P. Mammoth site including stratigraphic profiles from the first author's geoarchaeological work in 1961, stratigraphic and spatial location of bones and artifacts derived from the original field notes, and new radiocarbon dates. Although the precise stratigraphic provenance for many artifacts and skeletal elements remains unclear, a compelling argument can be made for spatial and stratigraphic association of the mammoth remains with the artifact assemblage suggesting some kind of human interaction with the animal.     

Water Scarcity: Moving Beyond Indexes to Innovative Institutions

Water scarcity is a media darling often times described as a trigger of conflict in arid regions, a by‐product of human influences ranging from desertification to climate change, or a combination of natural‐ and human‐induced changes in the water cycle. A multitude of indexes have been developed over the past 20 years to define water scarcity to map the “problem” and guide international donor investment. Few indexes include groundwater within the metrics of “scarcity.” Institutional communication contributes to the recognition of local or regional water scarcity. However, evaluations that neglect groundwater resources may incorrectly define conditions as scarce. In cases where there is a perception of scarcity, the incorporation of groundwater and related storage in aquifers, political willpower, new policy tools, and niche diplomacy often results in a revised status, either reducing or even eliminating the moniker locally. Imaginative conceptualization and innovative uses of aquifers are increasingly used to overcome water scarcity.     

Spatial differences in denitrification and bacterial community structure of streams: relationships with environmental conditions

In streams, benthic bacterial communities are integral to multiple aspects of ecosystem function, including carbon and nitrogen cycles. Variation both in terms of bacterial community structure (based on taxonomic and/or functional genes) and function can reveal potential drivers of spatiotemporal patterns in stream processes. In this study, the abundance and diversity of 16S rRNA genes and abundance of nosZ genes, encoding for nitrous oxide reductase, were related to denitrification and environmental conditions. Denitrification rates varied among the three streams examined, and within a given stream there were significant longitudinal differences. Likewise, bacterial community structure based on analysis of the 16S rRNA gene also differed significantly among streams. However, variation in denitrification rate was not well correlated with environmental or biological variables measured. In addition, relatively large numbers of denitrifiers occurred when denitrification rates were low. In conclusion, although the streams differed in environmental conditions as well as bacterial community structure, these differences did not explain much of the spatial variation in denitrification rates.     

The Ogle-Tr-56 Star–Planet System

We simultaneously fitted light and velocity data for the star–planet system OGLE-TR-56 with the Wilson–Devinney (WD) binary star program. We solved for orbital and planet parameters, along with the ephemeris using all currently available observational data. Parameters for the star (OGLE-TR-56a) were kept fixed at values derived from spectral characteristics and stellar evolutionary tracks. Our results are in good agreement with parameters obtained by other authors and have slightly smaller errors. We found no significant change in orbital period that may be due to orbital decay.     

Amplifier arrays for CMB polarization

Cryogenic low noise amplifier technology has been successfully used in the study of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Monolithic millimeter wave integrated circuit (MMIC) technology makes the mass production of coherent detection receivers feasible. We have produced large numbers of MMIC amplifiers for CMB measurements. We have also demonstrated the viability of multi-function multi-chip modules as sensitive receiver front-ends. MMIC integration makes it possible to realize massive arrays of receivers suitable for measurements of the polarization of the CMB. We describe the development of the unit cell of such an array and the development plans for implementation.     

A carbon balance model for the great dismal swamp ecosystem

Background

Carbon storage potential has become an important consideration for land management and planning in the United States. The ability to assess ecosystem carbon balance can help land managers understand the benefits and tradeoffs between different management strategies. This paper demonstrates an application of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model developed for local-scale land management at the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge. We estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance by considering past ecosystem disturbances resulting from storm damage, fire, and land management actions including hydrologic inundation, vegetation clearing, and replanting.

Results

We modeled the annual ecosystem carbon stock and flow rates for the 30-year historic time period of 1985–2015, using age-structured forest growth curves and known data for disturbance events and management activities. The 30-year total net ecosystem production was estimated to be a net sink of 0.97 Tg C. When a hurricane and six historic fire events were considered in the simulation, the Great Dismal Swamp became a net source of 0.89 Tg C. The cumulative above and below-ground carbon loss estimated from the South One and Lateral West fire events totaled 1.70 Tg C, while management activities removed an additional 0.01 Tg C. The carbon loss in below-ground biomass alone totaled 1.38 Tg C, with the balance (0.31 Tg C) coming from above-ground biomass and detritus.

Conclusions

Natural disturbances substantially impact net ecosystem carbon balance in the Great Dismal Swamp. Through alternative management actions such as re-wetting, below-ground biomass loss may have been avoided, resulting in the added carbon storage capacity of 1.38 Tg. Based on two model assumptions used to simulate the peat system, (a burn scar totaling 70 cm in depth, and the soil carbon accumulation rate of 0.36 t C/ha^?1/year^?1 for Atlantic white cedar), the total soil carbon loss from the South One and Lateral West fires would take approximately 1740 years to re-amass. Due to the impractical time horizon this presents for land managers, this particular loss is considered permanent. Going forward, the baseline carbon stock and flow parameters presented here will be used as reference conditions to model future scenarios of land management and disturbance.

     

Blooms of Dinoflagellate Mixotrophs in a Lower Chesapeake Bay Tributary: Carbon and Nitrogen Uptake over Diurnal,Seasonal, and Interannual Timescales

A multi-year study was conducted in the eutrophic Lafayette River, a sub-tributary of the lower Chesapeake Bay during which uptake of inorganic and organic nitrogen (N) and C compounds was measured during multiple seasons and years when different dinoflagellate species were dominant. Seasonal dinoflagellate blooms included a variety of mixotrophic dinoflagellates including Heterocapsa triquetra in the late winter, Prorocentrum minimum in the spring, Akashiwo sanguinea in the early summer, and Scrippsiella trochoidea and Cochlodinium polykrikoides in late summer and fall. Results showed that no single N source fueled algal growth, rather rates of N and C uptake varied on seasonal and diurnal timescales, and within blooms as they initiated and developed. Rates of photosynthetic C uptake were low yielding low assimilation numbers during much of the study period and the ability to assimilate dissolved organic carbon augmented photosynthetic C uptake during bloom and non-bloom periods. The ability to use dissolved organic C during the day and night may allow mixotrophic bloom organisms a competitive advantage over co-occurring phytoplankton that are restricted to photoautotrophic growth, obtaining N and C during the day and in well-lit surface waters.     

The availability of hydrogeologic data associated with areas identified by the US Geological Survey as experiencing potentially induced seismicity resulting from subsurface injection

A critical need exists for site-specific hydrogeologic data in order to determine potential hazards of induced seismicity and to manage risk. By 2015, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) had identified 17 locations in the USA that are experiencing an increase in seismicity, which may be potentially induced through industrial subsurface injection. These locations span across seven states, which vary in geological setting, industrial exposure and seismic history. Comparing the research across the 17 locations revealed patterns for addressing induced seismicity concerns, despite the differences between geographical locations. Most induced seismicity studies evaluate geologic structure and seismic data from areas experiencing changes in seismic activity levels, but the inherent triggering mechanism is the transmission of hydraulic pressure pulses. This research conducted a systematic review of whether data are available in these locations to generate accurate hydrogeologic predictions, which could aid in managing seismicity. After analyzing peer-reviewed research within the 17 locations, this research confirms a lack of site-specific hydrogeologic data availability for at-risk areas. Commonly, formation geology data are available for these sites, but hydraulic parameters for the seismically active injection and basement zones are not available to researchers conducting peer-reviewed research. Obtaining hydrogeologic data would lead to better risk management for injection areas and provide additional scientific evidential support for determining a potentially induced seismic area.     

Late Pleistocene snowline fluctuations at Nevado Coropuna (15°S), southern Peruvian Andes

Deposits preserved on peaks in the southern Peruvian Andes are evidence for past glacial fluctuations and, therefore, serve as a record of both the timing and magnitude of past climate change. Moraines corresponding to the last major expansion of ice on Nevado Coropuna date to 20‐25 ka, during the last glacial maximum. We reconstructed the snowline at Coropuna for this period using a combined geomorphic‐numeric approach to provide a first‐order estimate of the magnitude of late‐Pleistocene climate change. Our reconstructions show that snowline was approximately 550‐770 m lower during the last glacial maximum than during the late Holocene maximum, which ended in the 19^th century, and ～750 m lower than today. While these values are similar to data from nearby Nevado Solimana, reconstructions from the neighbouring peak of Nevado Firura reveal a smaller snowline depression, suggesting the glacial response to climate forcing in the tropics is strongly influenced by non‐climatic factors. These data constitute some of the first directly dated palaeo‐snowline data from the arid tropics and suggest that the magnitude of the last glaciation in at least parts of the tropical Andes was similar to late‐Pleistocene events at higher latitudes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.