A 500 hPa synoptic wildland fire climatology for large Canadian forest fires, 1959–1996

Summary In Canada, the average annual area of burned forest has increased from around 1 million ha in the 1970’s to over 2.5 million ha in the 1990’s. A previous study has identified the link between anomalous mid-tropospheric circulation at 500 hPa over northern North America and wildland fire severity activity in various large regions of Canada over the entire May to August fire season. In this study, a northern North American study region of the hemispheric gridded 5° latitude by 10° longitude 500 hPa dataset is identified and analysed from 1959 to 1996 for a sequence of six monthly periods through the fire season, beginning in April and ending in September. Synoptic types, or modes of upper air behavior, are determined objectively by the eigenvector method employing K-means cluster analysis. Monthly burned areas from the Canadian Large Fire Database (LFDB) for the same period, 1959 to 1996, are analysed in conjunction with the classified monthly 500 hPa synoptic types. Relationships between common monthly patterns of anomalous upper flow and spatial patterns of large fire occurrence are examined at the ecozone level. Average occurrence of a monthly synoptic type associated with very large area burned is approximately 18% of the years from 1959 to 1996. The largest areas burned during the main fire (May to August) season occur in the western Boreal and Taiga ecozones – the Taiga Plains, Taiga Shield, Boreal West Shield and Boreal Plains. Monthly burned areas are also analysed temporally in conjunction with a calculated monthly zonal index (Zi_m) for two separate areas defined to cover western and eastern Canada. In both western and eastern Canada, high area burned is associated with synoptic types with mid-tropospheric ridging in the proximity of the affected region and low Zi_m with weak westerlies and strong meridional flow over western Canada. Received April 3, 2001 Revised July 13, 2001     

Cover crops and precipitation influence soluble reactive phosphorus losses via tile drain discharge in an agricultural watershed

Subsurface tile drainage speeds water removal from agricultural fields that are historically prone to flooding. While managed drainage systems improve crop yields, they can also contribute tothe eutrophication of downstream ecosystems, as tile-drained systems are conduits for nutrients to adjacent waterways. The changing climate of the Midwestern US has already altered precipitation regimes which will likely continue into the future, with unknown effects on tile drain water and nutrient loss to waterways. Adding vegetative cover (i.e., as winter cover crops) is one approach that can retain water and nutrients on fields to minimize export via tile drains. In the current study, we evaluate the effect of cover crops on tile drain discharge and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) loads using bi-monthly measurements from 43 unique tile outlets draining fields with or without cover crops in two watersheds in northern Indiana. Using four water years of data (n = 844 measurements), we examined the role of short-term antecedent precipitation conditions and variation in soil biogeochemistry in mediating the effect of cover crops on tile drain flow and SRP loads. We observed significant effects of cover crops on both tile drain discharge and SRP loads, but these results were season and watershed specific. Cover crop effects were identified only in spring, where their presence reduced tile drain discharge in both watersheds and SRP loads in one watershed. Varying effects on SRP loads between watersheds were attributed to different soil biogeochemical characteristics, where soils with lower bioavailable P and higher P sorption capacity were less likely to have a cover crop effect. Antecedent precipitation was important in spring, and cover crop differences were still evident during periods of wet and dry antecedent precipitation conditions. Overall, we show that cover crops have the potential to significantly decrease spring tile drain P export, and these effects are resilient to a wide range of precipitation conditions.     

The Stanford Climate Change Behavior Survey (SCCBS): assessing greenhouse gas emissions-related behaviors in individuals and populations

Many individual-level behaviors are associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reliable and valid assessment instruments are needed to (1) identify behaviors and populations to target with emissions-reduction programs and policies, (2) evaluate the effectiveness of such programs, (3) link self-reported and objective measures of GHG emissions to establish the impact of specific behaviors, and (4) estimate frequencies of behaviors and their changes over time to aid policy makers in understanding energy consumption trends. The self-administered Stanford Climate Change Behavior Survey (SCCBS) is shown to be a reliable and valid instrument that can be used for these purposes in college students, and we anticipate that it will also be useful for assessing these behaviors in other adolescent or adult populations in developed countries. Questions included behaviors likely to be within the control of most individuals and did not include behaviors specific to home owners (e.g. appliance purchases). Ten indices were identified: Energy Use, No-, Low-, and High-GHG Transportation, Waste, Food Packaging, High- and Low-GHG Food, Food Purchasing, and GHG Credits use. A Total GHG Behavior score was calculated. Test–retest reliabilities of individual items ranged from .64 to .91. Internal consistency reliabilities for each of the indices ranged from .51 to .89. Most indices were statistically significantly correlated with one another. Correlational validity of the SCCBS was demonstrated with statistically significant associations between behavior scores and perceived importance of environmental sustainability and membership in an environmental organization. The use of the SCCBS to identify potential target sub-populations and behaviors was demonstrated.     

Zonal and meridional circulations in the equatorialzone as deduced from the divergence field of the surface wind

The zonal and meridional circulations and their variability are examined on the basis of the surface wind data for 1950-1979. The climatological mean zonal wind and its divergence are examined in reference to the Walker Circulation. The role played by the meridional circulation in contributing to convergence of the surface wind field within the equatorial zone is emphasized. Regression coefficients are used to infer seasonal mean anomalies of divergence of the surface wind in years when the sea level pressure is 1 hPa above normal at Darwin, a condition representative of El Nino events. It is shown that anomalies in the divergence associated with the meridional wind component are primarily responsible for the heavy precipitation in the Central Pacific, while the anomalous divergence associated with the zonal wind component may cause the drought in the Western Pacific near Indonesia. A similar pattern of divergence anomalies is evident during three consecutive seasons beginning in northern summer and ending in northern winter. The reinforcement of the Hadley Circulation during El Nino episodes is noted. It is shown that the circulations over the Atlantic Ocean and Pacific Ocean are relatively uncorrelated. The interrelation between the dipole anticyclones and the meridional cir-culation over the central Pacific is discussed.     

Severity, duration and frequency of drought in SE England from 1697 to 2011

Severe droughts have affected much of Europe over the last 40 years. A limitation to current understanding of droughts is based around drought characteristics (e.g. frequency, severity and duration) as there are limited long series (>100 years) with well documented severe droughts. This is further complicated with future climate projections, and the potential implications that these will have on drought characteristics. This paper presents reconstructed drought series from 1697, 1726 and 1767 to 2011 for three sites in southeast England. Precipitation and temperature series are reconstructed to generate long drought series using the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, enabling determination of drought characteristics. The reconstructions identify multiple drought-rich periods, 1730–1760 and 1890-present, with an increasing tendency towards more severe droughts during the latter period. Prolonged rainfall deficiencies are found to be the primary cause of severe droughts, with rising temperatures increasing soil moisture deficit, therefore intensifying drought conditions. Cycles at the 6–10 year period identify a sub-decadal to decadal signal during drought-rich periods. Analysis of the spatial variability of droughts finds that whilst severe events are predominantly regionally coherent, there are notable variations in severity and duration between sites, which are attributed to localised rainfall variability. This study extends the temporal range of previous drought studies and places recent drought events in a longer context improving upon existing ‘benchmark’ drought analyses in southeast England; with far-reaching implications for local, national and continental scale reduction of drought vulnerability and risk.     

Identifying hot spots of security vulnerability associated with climate change in Africa

Given its high dependence on rainfed agriculture and its comparatively low adaptive capacity, Africa is frequently invoked as especially vulnerable to climate change. Within Africa, there is likely to be considerable variation in vulnerability to climate change both between and within countries. This paper seeks to advance the agenda of identifying the hot spots of what we term “climate security” vulnerability, areas where the confluence of vulnerabilities could put large numbers of people at risk of death from climate-related hazards. This article blends the expertise of social scientists and climate scientists. It builds on a model of composite vulnerability that incorporates four “baskets” or processes that are thought to contribute to vulnerability including: (1) physical exposure, (2) population density, (3) household and community resilience, and (4) governance and political violence. Whereas previous iterations of the model relied on historical physical exposure data of natural hazards, this paper uses results from regional model simulations of African climate in the late 20th century and mid-21st century to develop measures of extreme weather events—dry days, heat wave events, and heavy rainfall days—coupled with an indicator of low-lying coastal elevation. For the late 20th century, this mapping process reveals the most vulnerable areas are concentrated in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan, with pockets in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mauritania, and Sierra Leone. The mid 21st century projection shows more extensive vulnerability throughout the Sahel, including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, northern Nigeria, Niger, and across Sudan.     

Roof-rock contamination of magma along the top of the reservoir for the Bishop Tuff

The Bishop Tuff, a well known Quaternary high-silica rhyolite in east-central California, is widely considered the type example of a vertically and monotonically zoned pyroclastic deposit that represents zoning in the source magma reservoir, inverted during the process of pyroclastic emplacement. However, the deposit of plinian pumice, which forms the base of the Bishop Tuff and represents the initial 10% or so of all magma erupted during the event that produced the Bishop Tuff, contains features at odds with monotonie zoning for the reservoir. Relative to overlying ignimbrite, the plinian deposit contains a reversal in trace-element zoning. Moreover, the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr is significantly higher than that in overlying ignimbrite (about 0.7084 vs 0.7064), and melt inclusions trapped in quartz phenocrysts exhibit notable variability of trace-element concentrations, even within a single host crystal (e.g., U: 10.77 to 8.91 ppm).These data have been previously interpreted as due to processes of chemical fractionation and evolution operating within a magma system closed to chemical interactions with its roof rocks. For example, the reversal in trace-element zoning has been explained by the first-erupted magma being erupted from somewhat below the top of a monotonically zoned reservoir. However, we submit that the reversed zoning and other above-noted features can be explained equally well as consequences of minor assimilation of roof rocks into a magma reservoir that was erupted from the top down.The basal part of the Bishop Tuff exhibits extreme concentrations and depletions of trace elements, relative to the average composition of crustal rocks. For example, the upward decrease of Sr in the Bishop magma reservoir (downward decrease in the ignimbrite) results in concentrations as low as 2–4 ppm. Because of the attendant ‘chemical leverage’, assimilation of < 1 wt.% of Sierra Nevada batholith rocks typical of the area could readily reverse an ‘uncontaminated’ Sr (and other trace elements) trend of zoning and could also substantially raise ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr. Small-scale trace-element variability in the uppermost part of the Bishop magma reservoir, as recorded by the above-mentioned melt inclusions, may simply reflect melt heterogeneity produced by the process of assimilation.     

Using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis as weather input data for watershed models

Obtaining representative meteorological data for watershed‐scale hydrological modelling can be difficult and time consuming. Land‐based weather stations do not always adequately represent the weather occurring over a watershed, because they can be far from the watershed of interest and can have gaps in their data series, or recent data are not available. This study presents a method for using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) global meteorological dataset to obtain historical weather data and demonstrates the application to modelling five watersheds representing different hydroclimate regimes. CFSR data are available globally for each hour since 1979 at a 38‐km resolution. Results show that utilizing the CFSR precipitation and temperature data to force a watershed model provides stream discharge simulations that are as good as or better than models forced using traditional weather gauging stations, especially when stations are more than 10 km from the watershed. These results further demonstrate that adding CFSR data to the suite of watershed modelling tools provides new opportunities for meeting the challenges of modelling un‐gauged watersheds and advancing real‐time hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed‐scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large‐scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The volcanic and magmatic evolution of Volcán Ollagüe, a high-K, late quaternary stratovolcano in the Andean Central Volcanic Zone

Volcán Ollagüe is a high-K, calc-alkaline composite volcano constructed upon extremely thick crust in the Andean Central Volcanic Zone. Volcanic activity commenced with the construction of an andesitic to dacitic composite cone composed of numerous lava flows and pyroclastic deposits of the Vinta Loma series and an overlying coalescing dome and coulée sequence of the Chasca Orkho series. Following cone construction, the upper western flank of Ollagüe collapsed toward the west leaving a collapse-amphitheater about 3.5 km in diameter and a debris avalanche deposit on the lower western flank of the volcano. The deposit is similar to the debris avalanche deposit produced during the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, U.S.A., and was probably formed in a similar manner. It presently covers an area of 100 km² and extends 16 km from the summit. Subsequent to the collapse event, the upper western flank was reformed via eruption of several small andesitic lava flows from vents located near the western summit and growth of an andesitic dome within the collapse-amphitheater. Additional post-collapse activity included construction of a dacitic dome and coulée of the La Celosa series on the northwest flank. Field relations indicate that vents for the Vinta Loma and post-collapse series were located at or near the summit of the cone. The Vinta Loma series is characterized by an anhydrous, two-pyroxene assemblage. Vents for the La Celosa and Chasca Orkho series are located on the flanks and strike N55 W, radial to the volcano. The pattern of flank eruptions coincides with the distribution in the abundance of amphibole and biotite as the main mafic phenocryst phases in the rocks. A possible explanation for this coincidence is that an unexposed fracture or fault beneath the volcano served as a conduit for both magma ascent and groundwater circulation. In addition to the lava flows at Ollagüe, magmas are also present as blobs of vesiculated basaltic andesite and mafic andesite that occur as inclusions in nearly all of the lavas. All eruptive activity at Ollagüe predates the last glacial episode ( 11.000 a B.P.), because post-collapse lava flows are overlain by moraine and are incised by glacial valleys. Present activity is restricted to emission of a persistent, 100-m-high fumarolic steam plume from a vent located within the summit andesite dome.Sr and Nd isotope ratios for the basaltic andesite and mafic andesite inclusions and lavas suggest that they have assimilated large amounts of crust during crystal fractionation. In contrast, narrow ranges in ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr in the andesitic and dacitic lavas are enigmatic with respect to crustal contamination.