The BEAM-project: prediction and assessment of mixture toxicities in the aquatic environment

Freshwater and marine ecosystems are exposed to various multi-component mixtures of pollutants. Nevertheless, most ecotoxicological research and chemicals regulation focus on hazard and exposure assessment of individual substances only, the problem of chemical mixtures in the environment is ignored to a large extent. In contrast, the assessment of combination effects has a long tradition in pharmacology, where mixtures of chemicals are specifically designed to develop new products, e.g. human and veterinary drugs or agricultural and non-agricultural pesticides. In this area, two concepts are frequently used and are thought to describe fundamental relationships between single substance and mixture effects: Independent Action (Response Addition) and Concentration Addition. The question, to what extent these concepts may also be applied in an ecotoxicological and regulatory context may be considered a research topic of major importance, as the concepts would allow to make use of already existing single substance toxicity data for the predictive assessment of mixture toxicities. Two critical knowledge gaps are identified: (a) There is a lack of environmental realism, as a huge part of our current knowledge about the applicability of the concepts is restricted to artificial situations with respect to mixture composition or biological effect assessment. (b) The knowledge on what exactly is needed for using the concepts as tools for the predictive mixture toxicity assessment is insufficient. Both gaps seriously hamper the necessary, scientifically sound consideration of mixture toxicities in a regulatory context.In this paper, the two concepts will be briefly introduced, the necessity of considering the toxicities of chemical mixtures in the environment will be demonstrated and the applicability of Independent Action and Concentration Addition as tools for the prediction and assessment of mixture toxicities will be discussed. An overview of the specific aims and approaches of the BEAM project to fill in the identified knowledge gaps is given and first results are outlined.     

Is there a superior conceptual groundwater model structure for baseflow simulation?

Previous work has shown that streamflow response during baseflow conditions is a function of storage, but also that this functional relationship varies among seasons and catchments. Traditionally, hydrological models incorporate conceptual groundwater models consisting of linear or non‐linear storage–outflow functions. Identification of the right model structure and model parameterization however is challenging. The aim of this paper is to systematically test different model structures in a set of catchments where different aquifer types govern baseflow generation processes. Nine different two‐parameter conceptual groundwater models are applied with multi‐objective calibration to transform two different groundwater recharge series derived from a soil‐atmosphere‐vegetation transfer model into baseflow separated from streamflow data. The relative performance differences of the model structures allow to systematically improve the understanding of baseflow generation processes and to identify most appropriate model structures for different aquifer types. We found more versatile and more aquifer‐specific optimal model structures and elucidate the role of interflow, flow paths, recharge regimes and partially contributing storages. Aquifer‐specific recommendations of storage models were found for fractured and karstic aquifers, whereas large storage capacities blur the identification of superior model structures for complex and porous aquifers. A model performance matrix is presented, which highlights the joint effects of different recharge inputs, calibration criteria, model structures and aquifer types. The matrix is a guidance to improve groundwater model structures towards their representation of the dominant baseflow generation processes of specific aquifer types. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A network theory approach for a better understanding of overland flow connectivity

Hydrological connectivity describes the physical coupling (linkages) of different elements within a landscape regarding (sub‐) surface flows. A firm understanding of hydrological connectivity is important for catchment management applications, for example, habitat and species protection, and for flood resistance and resilience improvement. Thinking about (geomorphological) systems as networks can lead to new insights, which has also been recognized within the scientific community, seeing the recent increase in the use of network (graph) theory within the geosciences. Network theory supports the analysis and understanding of complex systems by providing data structures for modelling objects and their linkages, and a versatile toolbox to quantitatively appraise network structure and properties. The objective of this study was to characterize and quantify overland flow connectivity dynamics on hillslopes in a humid sub‐Mediterranean environment by using a combination of high‐resolution digital‐terrain models, overland flow sensors and a network approach. Results showed that there are significant differences between overland flow connectivity on agricultural areas and semi‐natural shrubs areas. Significant positive correlations between connectivity and precipitation characteristics were found. Significant negative correlations between connectivity and soil moisture were found, most likely because of soil water repellency and/or soil surface crusting. The combination of structural networks and dynamic networks for determining potential connectivity and actual connectivity proved a powerful tool for analysing overland flow connectivity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing quality of volunteer crowdsourcing contributions: lessons from the Cropland Capture game

Volunteered geographic information (VGI) is the assembly of spatial information based on public input. While VGI has proliferated in recent years, assessing the quality of volunteer-contributed data has proven challenging, leading some to question the efficiency of such programs. In this paper, we compare several quality metrics for individual volunteers’ contributions. The data were the product of the ‘Cropland Capture’ game, in which several thousand volunteers assessed 165,000 images for the presence of cropland over the course of 6 months. We compared agreement between volunteer ratings and an image's majority classification with volunteer self-agreement on repeated images and expert evaluations. We also examined the impact of experience and learning on performance. Volunteer self-agreement was nearly always higher than agreement with majority classifications, and much greater than agreement with expert validations although these metrics were all positively correlated. Volunteer quality showed a broad trend toward improvement with experience, but the highest accuracies were achieved by a handful of moderately active contributors, not the most active volunteers. Our results emphasize the importance of a universal set of expert-validated tasks as a gold standard for evaluating VGI quality.     

Anisotropic mechanical properties of zircon and the effect of radiation damage

This study provides new insights into the relationship between radiation-dose-dependent structural damage due to natural U and Th impurities and the anisotropic mechanical properties (Poisson’s ratio, elastic modulus and hardness) of zircon. Natural zircon samples from Sri Lanka (see Muarakami et al. in Am Mineral 76:1510–1532, 1991) and synthetic samples, covering a dose range of zero up to 6.8 × 10¹⁸ α-decays/g, have been studied by nanoindentation. Measurements along the [100] crystallographic direction and calculations, based on elastic stiffness constants determined by Özkan (J Appl Phys 47:4772–4779, 1976), revealed a general radiation-induced decrease in stiffness (~54 %) and hardness (~48 %) and an increase in the Poisson’s ratio (~54 %) with increasing dose. Additional indentations on selected samples along the [001] allowed one to follow the amorphization process to the point that the mechanical properties are isotropic. This work shows that the radiation-dose-dependent changes of the mechanical properties of zircon can be directly correlated with the amorphous fraction as determined by previous investigations with local and global probes (Ríos et al. in J Phys Condens Matter 12:2401–2412, 2000a; Farnan and Salje in J Appl Phys 89:2084–2090, 2001; Zhang and Salje in J Phys Condens Matter 13:3057–3071, 2001). The excellent agreement, revealed by the different methods, indicates a large influence of structural and even local phenomena on the macroscopic mechanical properties. Therefore, this study indicates the importance of acquiring better knowledge about the mechanical long-term stability of radiation-damaged materials.     

Biostratigraphy and paleogeography of the southeast desert phosphorites of Jordan

Three sections from the Al-Hisa Phosphorite Formation (AHP) were measured in the southeastern desert of Jordan: Batn El-Ghoul, Nagb Etayyeg, and Zgaimat Al-Hasah. A fourth section, Wadi Arfa, is added from a previous work. The three sections differ from the typical AHP Formation in central Jordan by having highly reduced thicknesses, omission/non-deposition of the underlying formations, rarity of fossils, abundant sand, and their stratigraphic ages. A Paleocene-Early Eocene age, based on calcareous nannofossils, has been assigned to the AHP Formation of the sections studied in the southeast desert. This Paleocene-Early Eocene age is younger than the Early Maastrichtian age of the AHP deposits in central Jordan. The published ages of the phosphorite deposits in the eastern Mediterranean countries suggest a younging to the east due to an interplay between paleodepositional environments and plate tectonics (paleohigh formation). The minor phosphorite deposits of Turkey and Iran are not involved in the discussion because they were not part of the Afro-Arabian Plate or the later Arabian Plate. The abovementioned differences between the southeastern desert phosphorites and the central Jordan deposits are here explained by the formation of paleohighs on the Neo-Tethys seafloor during the Late Cretaceous-Eocene. These include the Sirhan Paleohigh where the southeast desert phosphorites were deposited. The formation of the highs was due to the compression associated first, with the subduction of the Afro-Arabian Plate, below the Eurasian Plate and later with their collision.     

Uncertainty of ENSO-amplitude projections in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

There is a long-standing debate on how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude may change during the twenty-first century in response to global warming. Here we identify the sources of uncertainty in the ENSO amplitude projections in models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6), and quantify scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and uncertainty due to internal variability. The model projections exhibit a large spread, ranging from increasing standard deviation of up to 0.6 °C to diminishing standard deviation of up to − 0.4 °C by the end of the twenty-first century. The ensemble-mean ENSO amplitude change is close to zero. Internal variability is the main contributor to the uncertainty during the first three decades; model uncertainty dominates thereafter, while scenario uncertainty is relatively small throughout the twenty-first century. The total uncertainty increases from CMIP5 to CMIP6: while model uncertainty is reduced, scenario uncertainty is considerably increased. The models with “realistic” ENSO dynamics have been analyzed separately and categorized into models with too small, moderate and too large ENSO amplitude in comparison to instrumental observations. The smallest uncertainties are observed in the sub-ensemble exhibiting realistic ENSO dynamics and moderate ENSO amplitude. However, the global warming signal in ENSO-amplitude change is undetectable in all sub-ensembles. The zonal wind-SST feedback is identified as an important factor determining ENSO amplitude change: global warming signal in ENSO amplitude and zonal wind-SST feedback strength are highly correlated across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.