Climate change research in central and eastern Europe

Climate change presents both threats and opportunities to the nations and peoples of central and eastern Europe. National and international programs are directly addressing climate change, and other programs speak to natural resource and environmental quality issues that will have significant effects on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. This paper explores examples of ongoing climate change activity in the region, setting a broad context for the subsequent papers in this volume ofGeoJournal. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational streamflow and groundwater level forecasting system at monthly to seasonal time scales

This paper describes the development of the first operational seasonal hydrological forecasting service for the UK, the Hydrological Outlook UK (HOUK). Since June 2013, this service has delivered monthly forecasts of streamflow and groundwater levels, with an emphasis on forecasting hydrological conditions over the next three months, accompanied by outlooks over longer time horizons. This system is based on three complementary approaches combined to produce the outlooks: (i) national-scale modelling of streamflow and groundwater levels based on dynamic seasonal rainfall forecasts, (ii) catchment-scale modelling where streamflow and groundwater level models are driven by historical meteorological forcings (i.e. the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, ESP, approach), and (iii) a catchment-scale statistical method based on persistence and historical analogues. This paper provides the background to the Hydrological Outlook, describes the various component methods in detail and then considers the impact and usefulness of the product. As an example of a multi-method, operational seasonal hydrological forecasting system, it is hoped that this overview provides useful information and context for other forecasting initiatives around the world.     

Constraining sediment provenance for tsunami deposits using distributions of grain size and foraminifera from the Kujukuri coastline and shelf,Japan

Tsunami deposits preserved in the geological record provide a more comprehensive understanding of their patterns of frequency and intensity over longer timescales; but recognizing tsunami deposits can prove challenging due to post-depositional changes, lack of contrast between the deposits and surrounding sedimentary layers, and differentiating between tsunami and storm deposition. Modern baseline studies address these challenges by providing insight into modern spatial distributions that can be compared with palaeotsunami deposits. This study documents the spatial fingerprint of grain size and foraminifera from Hasunuma Beach and the Kujukuri shelf to provide a basis from which tsunami deposits can be interpreted. At Hasunuma Beach, approximately 50 km east of Tokyo, the spatial distribution of three common proxies (foraminiferal taxonomy, foraminiferal taphonomy and sediment grain size) for tsunami identification were mapped and clustered using Partitioning Around Medoids cluster analysis. Partitioning Around Medoids cluster analysis objectively discriminated two coastal zones corresponding to onshore and offshore sample locations. Results show that onshore samples are characterized by coarser grain sizes (medium to coarse sand) and higher abundances of Pararotalia nipponica (27 to 63%) than offshore samples, which are characterized by finer grain sizes (fine to medium sand), lower abundances of Pararotalia nipponica (2 to 19%) and Ammonia parkinsoniana (0 to 10%), higher abundances of planktonics (15 to 58%) and species with fragile tests including Uvigerinella glabra. When compared to grain-size and foraminiferal taxonomy, foraminiferal taphonomy; i.e. surface condition of foraminifera, a proxy not commonly used to identify tsunami deposits, was most effective in discriminating modern coastal zones (identified supratidal, intertidal and offshore environments) and determining sediment provenance for tsunami deposits at Kujukuri. This modern baseline study assists the interpretation of tsunami deposits in the geological record because it provides a basis for sediment provenance to be determined.     

Exploring LiDAR data for mapping the micro-topography and tidal hydro-dynamics of mangrove systems: An example from southeast Queensland,Australia

The aim was to explore the use of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data to map the micro-topography of an intertidal wetland in southeast Queensland Australia. The driver for this was the need to identify and map the habitats of the immature stages of an aedine disease vector mosquito (Aedes vigilax (Skuse)). We derived a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM) data set at a vertical resolution of 0.05 m from LiDAR data. The relative accuracy of the DEM across the site was tested by comparing water depth predictions derived from the DEM against in-situ water depth readings from pressure sensors over a 10-day tidal cycle, which included high spring tides. We found that the field observations of micro-topographic units important for mosquito management matched those delineated from the DEM. The micro-topography included a low berm or central ridge that was more or less continuous across the site, a shallow back basin and fringing mangroves. The fringing mangroves had unimpeded connection to the tidal source, however the central ridge blocked tidal water from the back basin for all but the highest tides. Eggshell survey indicated that the back basin was the area suitable for immature mosquitoes. We conclude that LiDAR data has application for understanding and mapping the structure of mangrove wetlands. We have also demonstrated (in a small area) that LiDAR is useful for modelling the effect of sea level changes on the coastal fringe. LiDAR may be the only method to inform research on changes to land use and ecosystems caused by sea level change.     

Identifying baseflow source areas using remotely sensed and ground-based hydrologic data

Understanding how rainfall and snowmelt influence baseflow, the groundwater-fed component of streamflow, is essential for sound water resources management. Current approaches to understand the spatial couplings between these processes and baseflow are limited. The most commonly used methods include geochemical tracers and hydrologic models. A key limitation of the first is cost, while the second is limited by the need for simplifying assumptions. This study developed a data-driven approach which leverages satellite Earth observation data and ground-based data to assess the degree to which baseflow is influenced by upstream rainfall and snowmelt in California's Sierra Nevada. The procedure involved: (1) separation of baseflow from streamflow time series using a low-pass filtering technique, (2) quantification of aquifer drainage timescales through baseflow recession analysis, (3) application of time series and information theory methods to identify the areas which have the greatest impacts on baseflow through both rainfall and snowmelt, and (4) characterization of the elevation zones which have a prevailing influence on baseflow. Results suggest that areas which have the strongest impact on baseflow through rainfall and snowmelt are not necessarily the areas which experience the highest annual rates of snowmelt or rainfall; snowmelt occurring in the 3000–3700 m elevation range was found to be the most important driver of baseflow.     

Sources, input pathways, and distributions of Fe, Cu, and Zn in a Chesapeake Bay tidal freshwater marsh

Tidal freshwater marshes exist at the interface between watersheds and estuaries, and thus may serve as critical buffers protecting estuaries from anthropogenic metal pollution. Bi-weekly samples of newly deposited marsh sediments were collected and analyzed for Cu, Zn, and Fe concentrations over 21 months from July 1995 to March 1997 in five distinct habitats at the head of Bush River, Maryland. Bi-weekly anthropogenic metal enrichments ranged from 0.9–4.7. Anthropogenic excess metal loadings averaged over 1996 ranged from 6–306 and 25–1302 μg cm⁻² year⁻¹ between sites for Cu and Zn, respectively. Based on Fe-normalized trace metal signatures, Susquehanna River sediment does not significantly contribute to upper Bush River. Organic matter was found to dilute total metal concentrations, whereas past studies suggested organics enhance labile metal content. Analysis of metal input pathways shows that marsh metals are primarily imported from nearby subtidal accumulations of historic watershed material by tidal flushing. Received: 29 April 1999 / Accepted: 7 December 1999     

Modes of variability of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation estimated by AGCMs

The seasonal mean variability of the atmospheric circulation is affected by processes with time scales from less than seasonal to interannual or longer. Using monthly mean data from an ensemble of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) realisations, the interannual variability of the seasonal mean is separated into intraseasonal, and slowly varying components. For the first time, using a recently developed method, the slowly varying component in multiple AGCM ensembles is further separated into internal and externally forced components. This is done for Southern Hemisphere 500?hPa geopotential height from five AGCMs in the CLIVAR International Climate of the Twentieth Century project for the summer and winter seasons. In both seasons, the intraseasonal and slow modes of variability are qualitatively well reproduced by the models when compared with reanalysis data, with a relative metric finding little overall difference between the models. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is by far the dominant mode of slowly varying internal atmospheric variability. Two slow-external modes of variability are related to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, and a third is the atmospheric response to trends in external forcing. An ENSO-SAM relationship is found in the model slow modes of variability, similar to that found by earlier studies using reanalysis data. There is a greater spread in the representation of model slow-external modes in winter than summer, particularly in the atmospheric response to external forcing trends. This may be attributable to weaker external forcing constraints on SH atmospheric circulation in winter.     

Bedform patterns, subglacial meltwater events, and Late Devensian ice sheet dynamics in north-central Ireland

Glacial bedform patterns and sediments deposited by the temperate and polythermal Late Devensian ice sheet in north-central Ireland record changes in the processes, location, and magnitude of subglacial meltwater throughout the last full glacial cycle (21–14 ¹⁴C kyear BP). Meltwater characteristics are related directly to basal ice thermal regime and ice dynamics, including ice velocity and shifts in the location of ice centres. Therefore, reconstructed meltwater characteristics may provide insight into wider controls on dynamic ice behaviour. A range of meltwater-related features are present across north-central Ireland. These include tunnel valleys, drumlin leeside sequences, eskers, and boulder lags. Other bedforms including Rogen moraines were modified by meltwater activity along ice streams. Meltwater was stored subglacially in two contrasting regions located beneath or near ice centres in north-central Ireland. (1) The Lough Erne Basin is developed in a lowland depression occupied partly by subglacial Rogen moraine ridges which were formed around the time of the last glacial maximum. Meltwater was stored between Rogen ridge crests and released by hydraulic jacking associated with drumlinisation (16.6 ¹⁴C kyear BP) and ice streaming (13.8 ¹⁴C kyear BP). (2) The Lough Neagh Basin occupies a similar lowland depression and was the location of an ice sheet centre throughout the last glacial cycle. No bedforms are present beneath or immediately surrounding Lough Neagh. A larger, more continuous meltwater lake existed in the Lough Neagh depression, probably sealed by a region of cold-based ice outside lake margins. Water escaped through regional-scale tunnel valleys, particularly the Poyntzpass channel which was active during the Carlingford ice readvance (Killard Stadial, correlated with Heinrich event 1 at 14.5 ¹⁴C kyear BP). Overall, reconstructed subglacial lake characteristics and drainage mechanisms are related closely to basal ice thermal regime and substrate relief (controlling lake geometry), and provide insight into controls on overall ice sheet dynamics.