1998年夏季长江流域大气季节内振荡的结构演变及其对降水的影响

利用中国逐日降水格点资料和NCAR/NCEP再分析资料,对1998年发生在我国东部长江中下游流域的夏季持续性强降水过程中显著的大气季节内振荡(ISO)的三维结构演变等活动特征进行了分析。1998年夏季长江及江南地区的异常强降水对应着该地区强的ISO活动。利用位相合成方法,对长江流域两个典型的季节内循环周期的ISO降水、850 hPa水平风场以及水汽和垂直速度等循环过程的时空分布特征进行了诊断分析。在低频环流场上,对流层低层的低频气旋和反气旋环流表现出交替在热带西北太平洋增强并向西偏北方向移动发展的特征,当异常气旋环流移动到长江流域上空时,长江流域正好位于气旋环流西南侧的东北风异常和西北太平洋上向西移动的反气旋环流西北侧的西南风异常环流汇合处的下方,引起该地区强降水的发生。在强降水阶段的ISO的垂直结构上,上升运动和水汽表现出从华南到长江流域自南向北移动的特征,强烈的垂直上升运动以及来自南方充足的水汽为增强长江流域地区的降水起到了重要作用。     

Cause of Extreme Heavy and Persistent Rainfall over Yangtze River in Summer 2020

Record-breaking heavy and persistent precipitation occurred over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) in June-July (JJ) 2020. An observational data analysis has indicated that the strong and persistent rainfall arose from the confluence of southerly wind anomalies to the south associated with an extremely strong anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNPAC) and northeasterly anomalies to the north associated with a high-pressure anomaly over Northeast Asia. A further observational and modeling study has shown that the extremely strong WNPAC was caused by both La Ni?a-like SST anomaly (SSTA) forcing in the equatorial Pacific and warm SSTA forcing in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO). Different from conventional central Pacific (CP) El Ni?os that decay slowly, a CP El Ni?o in early 2020 decayed quickly and became a La Ni?a by early summer. This quick transition had a critical impact on the WNPAC. Meanwhile, an unusually large area of SST warming occurred in the tropical IO because a moderate interannual SSTA over the IO associated with the CP El Ni?o was superposed by an interdecadal/long-term trend component. Numerical sensitivity experiments have demonstrated that both the heating anomaly in the IO and the heating anomaly in the tropical Pacific contributed to the formation and maintenance of the WNPAC. The persistent high-pressure anomaly in Northeast Asia was part of a stationary Rossby wave train in the midlatitudes, driven by combined heating anomalies over India, the tropical eastern Pacific, and the tropical Atlantic.     

Effects of perturbation type on tropical cyclone size over tropical North Western Pacific and Atlantic

Climate Dynamics - In authors’ previous studies, the role of distinctive mean states in the western North Pacific (WNP) and North Atlantic (NA) in affecting tropical cyclone (TC) size was...     

Evaluating social capital in emergency and disaster management and hazards plans

Natural Hazards - Natural hazards and disasters pose a serious threat to society. Efficient hazard plans are a county’s prerequisite in preparing for potential disasters and serve as primary...     

The application of cascading consequences for emergency management operations

How societies organize themselves to respond to cascading impacts exacerbated by climate change will help define the future of disaster planning, mitigation, response, and recovery. Current emergency management risk analyses focus on identifying a broad array of threats and hazards that may affect an area. However, there is limited attention and understanding of the totality of hazard impacts, the relationship of consequences across disasters, and the dangers of not addressing critical capabilities necessary to rapidly managing consequences—including the potential to create new incidents within incidents. Through a focused review of the related literature and guiding policy documents, this study aims to provide a cascading consequence-based framework that can support emergency managers in the analysis of their jurisdictional risks, development of emergency operations plans, and decision-making. Results include the identification of an alternative framework to identify cascading networks, the creation of a supplementary model for downstream risk assessment, and refined Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Analysis (THIRA) outputs for improved grant allocation. The proposed framework has the potential to help organizations factor both conspicuous and downstream consequences into their Emergency Operations Plans in the planning and mitigations phases. This proposed refinement, which looks deeper into the progression of a disaster, has both national and international implications.

     

Coastal curios? An analysis of ex situ beach finds for mapping new Palaeolithic sites at Happisburgh,UK

Recent archaeological discoveries from exposures of the Cromer Forest-bed Formation at Happisburgh, UK, have radically changed interpretations of the nature and timing of early hominin occupation of northern latitudes, but this in situ archaeology is only one part of the picture. Surface finds of Pleistocene mammalian remains have been found along this coastline for centuries, with stone tools adding to this record over the past 7 years. The ex situ nature of these finds, however, means they are often seen as limited in the information they can provide. This work contributes to a growing body of research from a range of landscape and environmental contexts that seeks to demonstrate the value and importance of these ex situ assemblages. Here the focus is on Palaeolithic flint artefacts and Pleistocene mammalian remains recovered by a group of local collectors through systematic, GPS-recorded beach collection from 2013 to 2017, and their use in developing a methodology for working with ex situ Palaeolithic finds in coastal locations. The results demonstrate significant patterning that identifies unexplored exposures both onshore and offshore, considerably expanding the known extent of deposits and facilitating new insights into the wider archaeological landscape associated with the earliest occupation of northern Europe.     

Extreme variability of water table dynamics in temperate calcareous fens: Implications for biodiversity

Calcareous fens are minerotrophic peatlands with very high species diversity, and maintenance of the water table is assumed to be a key contributor to this diversity. However, this assumption is based on limited study of fen water table dynamics. Here we monitor water table fluctuation in distributed locations across three calcareous fens differing in hydrogeomorphic setting for three growing seasons. Water table position was extremely variable with absolute ranges of 89, > 100, and > 118 cm in the Riparian, Trough and Basin Fens, respectively, and was controlled by landscape position and weather variability. Areas adjacent to a second‐order stream experienced the least water table fluctuation, while the Basin Fen, at > 75 m from a surface water connection, was very prone to year‐to‐year precipitation differences. Mean and median water table values were found to be poor indicators of biologically relevant hydroperiods. We introduce the term ‘duration of initial growing season saturation’ as a potentially more useful statistic to relate to plant species distribution. Across the studied fens, this duration ranged from 1 to 14 weeks from the start of the growing season. The water table resided below the ground surface for between 0 and 22 weeks of the growing season across the calcareous fens and study period. These findings impart great differences in the development of oxidized rooting depths. Our results demonstrate that there is much more variation in calcareous fen hydrology than previously reported, and this variability has important implications for fen vegetation patterning and management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The controls on boreal peatland surface water chemistry in Northern Alberta,Canada

Spatial and temporal variability in surface water chemistry, organic soil chemistry and hydrologic indicators were investigated at three poor‐fen complexes in two boreal catchments in Northern Alberta to provide insight into the dominant controls on surface water chemistry. Improved understanding of these controls is required to enable prediction of runoff chemistry in the region under changing atmospheric deposition conditions. Surface water chemistry exhibited considerable variability; within each fen conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and Cl⁻ tended to decrease and pH tended to increase with increasing distance from the lake edge. Variations in evaporative isotopic enrichment in ²H and ¹⁸O, expressed as deuterium excess, were used to distinguish between throughflow waters and those that were more evaporatively enriched. Throughflow surface waters were more acidic primarily due to higher concentrations of DOC and NO₃⁻. Exchangeable base saturation and pH of organic soils were strongly related to surface water chemistry at two of the fen complexes, demonstrating the capacity for cation exchange to influence surface water chemistry. Fen surface water concentrations of most elements and DOC increased during the summer period (between June and August), while pH of water decreased. Evaporative concentration of the surface waters was a dominant driver, with surface water temperature increasing at both catchments. Localized groundwater discharge was an important contributor of base cations to the fens, while the organic soils are sinks for atmospherically deposited SO₄²⁻, N and Cl⁻. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.