Estimating Sea-Level Allowances for Atlantic Canada using the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

Abstract

Sea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances, which may be used for coastal infrastructure planning, increase with time during the twenty-first century through a combination of mean sea-level rise and the increased uncertainty of future projections with time. The allowances show significant spatial variation, mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change as a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A methodology is described for replacement of the GIA component of the AR5 projection with global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical crustal motion; this significantly decreases allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the 1995–2100 period, the sea-level allowances range from about 0.5?m along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1?m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland.     

A New Tethered Balloon-Borne Payload for Fine-Scale Observations in the Cloudy Boundary Layer

A new scientific payload is introduced for fine-scale measurements of meteorological (wind vector, static air temperature, humidity, and air pressure) and microphysical (aerosol particles and cloud droplets) properties, suspended below a tethered balloon. The high resolution sensors and the tethered balloon are described. Measurements in a lifted fog layer from a first field campaign are presented.The detailed investigation of the fog/haze and the temperature inversion layer demonstrates the damping influence of the fog on temperature fluctuations, while thewind fluctuations are significantly decreased by theevolving temperature inversion, whichwas about 30 m above the fog layer.From spectral analysis the noise floors of the high-resolution sensors are determined to10^-6 kg m^-3 for the LWC (liquid water content) and 4 mK for the fast temperature sensor (UFT-B). The correlation betweentemperature and LWC structures in shallow haze layers is investigated. The release of latent heat and the corresponding warming in the haze of about 0.1 K could be quantified.     

Multi-Source Emission Determination Using an Inverse-Dispersion Technique

Inverse-dispersion calculations can be used to infer atmospheric emission rates through a combination of downwind gas concentrations and dispersion model predictions. With multiple concentration sensors downwind of a compound source (whose component positions are known) it is possible to calculate the component emissions. With this in mind, a field experiment was conducted to examine the feasibility of such multi-source inferences, using four synthetic area sources and eight concentration sensors arranged in different configurations. Multi-source problems tend to be mathematically ill-conditioned, as expressed by the condition number κ. In our most successful configuration (average κ = 4.2) the total emissions from all sources were deduced to within 10% on average, while component emissions were deduced to within 50%. In our least successful configuration (average κ = 91) the total emissions were calculated to within only 50%, and component calculations were highly inaccurate. Our study indicates that the most accurate multi-source inferences will occur if each sensor is influenced by only a single source. A “progressive” layout is the next best: one sensor is positioned to “see” only one source, the next sensor is placed to see the first source and another, a third sensor is placed to see the previous two plus a third, and so on. When it is not possible to isolate any sources κ is large and the accuracy of a multi-source inference is doubtful.     

Penetration of sunlight into a canopy: Explicit models based on vertical and horizontal leaf projections

The projections of leaf areas onto a horizontal plane and onto a vertical plane are examined for their utility in characterizing canopies for sunlight penetration (direct beam only) models. These projections exactly specify the penetration if the projections on the principal plane of the normals to the top surfaces of the leaves are in the same quadrant as the Sun. Inferring the total leaf area from these projections (and therefore the penetration as a function of the total leaf area) is possible only with a large uncertainty (up to ±32%) because the projections are a specific measure of the total leaf area only if the leaf angle distribution is known. It is expected that this uncertainty could be reduced to more acceptable levels by making an approximate assessment of whether the zenith angle distribution is that of an extremophile canopy. An extremophile canopy would have the maximum leaf area possible for given set of projections. Simple leaf projection measurements would then become a practical substitute for detailed measurements of the leaf angle distribution. This is not true if for a fraction of the canopy, the leaf normal projections fall in the non-solar quadrant. In this case, accurate and detailed information about the leaf orientation is required for assessing the penetration; the horizontal and vertical projections are inadequate for this purpose.     

Magmatic-to-hydrothermal crystallization in the W–Sn mineralized Mole Granite (NSW, Australia): Part I: Crystallization of zircon and REE-phosphates over three million years—a geochemical and U–Pb geochronological study

Zircon, monazite and xenotime crystallized over a temperature interval of several hundred degrees at the magmatic to hydrothermal transition of the Sn and W mineralized Mole Granite. Magmatic zircon and monazite, thought to have crystallized from hydrous silicate melt, were dated by conventional U–Pb techniques at an age of 247.6 ± 0.4 and 247.7 ± 0.5 Ma, respectively. Xenotime occurring in hydrothermal quartz is found to be significantly younger at 246.2 ± 0.5 Ma and is interpreted to represent hydrothermal growth. From associated fluid inclusions it is concluded that it precipitated from a hydrothermal brine ≤ 600 °C, which is below the accepted closure temperature for U–Pb in this mineral. These data are compatible with a two-stage crystallization process: precipitation of zircon and monazite as magmatic liquidus phases in deep crustal magma followed by complete crystallization and intimately associated Sn–W mineralization after intrusion of the shallow, sill-like body of the Mole Granite. Later hydrothermal formation of monazite in a biotite–fluorite–topaz reaction rim around a mineralized vein was dated at 244.4 ± 1.4 Ma, which distinctly postdates the Mole Granite and is possibly related to a younger hidden intrusion and its hydrothermal fluid system.

Obtaining precise age data for magmatic and hydrothermal minerals of the Mole Granite is hampered by uncertainties introduced by different corrections required for multiple highly radiogenic minerals crystallising from evolved hydrous granites, including ²³⁰Th disequilibrium due to Th/U fractionation during monazite and possibly xenotime crystallization, variable Th/U ratios of the fluids from which xenotime was precipitating, elevated contents of common lead, and post-crystallization lead loss in zircon, enhanced by the fluid-saturated environment. The data imply that monazite can also survive as a liquidus phase in protracted magmatic systems over periods of 10⁶ years. The outlined model is in agreement with prominent chemical core-rim variation of the zircon.     

超基性岩中锆石年龄的特征和意义——以西南天山UHP蛇纹岩中锆石U-Pb年龄为例

超基性岩本身难以生长锆石的特性,使得研究其中的锆石需要特别谨慎。超基性岩中的锆石虽然具有多解性,但是锆石也携带了很多演化信息。产出不同地质背景的超基性岩,其中的锆石特征不同。本文总结现有的研究实例表明:(1)经历高温高压变质作用的石榴橄榄岩通常通过交代作用获得锆石,且锆石能够记录峰期变质时代,其中的继承锆石较少,可能在高温高压条件下,继承锆石发生分解重结晶;(2)大洋蛇绿岩型超基性岩和地幔岩捕掳体中通常具有年龄分布很广的锆石年龄特征,锆石年龄峰值通常与区域上构造事件相吻合,为捕掳晶锆石。接下来本文以西南天山超高压(UHP)蛇纹岩为例,对其锆石年龄进行解释。西南天山蛇纹岩为经历过超高压变质作用的大洋蛇绿岩型超基性岩,2个蛇纹岩样品中锆石的阴极发光图像分析和SIMS U-Pb定年分析结果显示,西南天山UHP蛇纹岩中的锆石包含捕掳晶锆石和变质锆石,捕掳晶锆石的年龄为2.1~1.0Ga,对应该区变泥质岩中碎屑锆石记录的年龄峰值。409~537Ma可能代表了蛇纹岩原岩结晶时代。区域上的变质压力峰期年龄(~320Ma)在蛇纹岩中没有记录,仅有1颗锆石记录了309±5Ma的近峰期时代。270~155Ma的退变质时代在西南天山蛇纹岩中出现较广,这与榴辉岩中出现的退变年龄相吻合,代表了折返过程中较为普遍的后期热液事件。基于对超基性岩中锆石特征的初步了解,结合西南天山蛇纹岩的研究实例,认为通过研究锆石的年代学,结合锆石矿物化学、包体矿物学、同位素地球化学等特征,不仅可以提供年代学信息,还可以对超基性岩的来源和演化过程进行解析。     

Rutile occurrence and trace element behavior in medium-grade metasedimentary rocks: example from the Erzgebirge, Germany

Metamorphic textures in medium-grade (~500–550°C) metasedimentary rocks from the Erzgebirge give evidence of prograde rutile crystallization from ilmenite. Newly-crystallized grains occur as rutile-rich polycrystalline aggregates that pseudomorph the shape of the ilmenites. In-situ trace element data (EMP and SIMS) show that rutiles from the higher-grade samples record large scatter in Nb content and have Nb/Ti ratios higher than coexisting ilmenite. This behavior can be predicted using prograde rutile crystallization from ilmenite and indicates that rutiles are reequilibrating their chemistry with remaining ilmenites. On the contrary, rutiles from the lowest grade samples (~480°C) have Nb/Ti ratios that are similar to the ones in ilmenite. Hence, rutiles from these samples did not equilibrate their chemistry with remaining ilmenites. Our data suggest that temperature may be one of the main factors determining whether or not the elements are able to diffuse between the phases and, therefore, reequilibrate. Newly-crystallized rutiles yield temperatures (from ~500 to 630°C, Zr-in-rutile thermometry) that are in agreement with the metamorphic conditions previously determined for the studied rocks. In quartzites from the medium-grade domain (~530°C), inherited detrital rutile grains are detected. They are identified by their distinct chemical composition (high Zr and Nb contents) and textures (single grains surrounded by fine grained ilmenites). Preliminary calculation, based on grain size distribution of rutile in medium-grade metapelites and quartzites that occur in the studied area, show that rutiles derived from quartzites can be anticipated to dominate the detrital rutile population, even if quartzites are a minor component of the exposure.     

Implications of the serpentine phase transition on the behaviour of beryllium and lithium-boron of subducted ultramafic rocks

The Totalp-Platta-Malenco ophiolites in the Eastern Central Alps offer a unique opportunity to study the behaviour of Li, Be and B in ultramafic rocks in response to serpentinization and to progressive Alpine metamorphism. These units represent the remnants of a former ocean-continent transition that was intensely serpentinized during exposure on the Jurassic seafloor of the Ligurian Tethys. From north to the south, three isograd reactions (lizardite⇒antigorite+brucite;lizardite+talc⇒antigorite;lizardite+tremolite⇒antigorite+diopside) have been used to quantify the evolution of the light element content of metamorphic minerals. We determined the Li, Be and B concentrations in major silicate minerals from the ultramafic bodies of Totalp, Platta and Malenco by secondary ion mass spectrometry. Mantle minerals have Be concentrations (e.g. <0.001-0.009 μg/g in olivine) similar to the metamorphic minerals that replace them (e.g. <0.001-0.016 μg/g in serpentine). The mantle signature of Be is thus neither erased during seafloor alteration nor by progressive metamorphism from prehnite-pumpellyite to epidote-amphibolite facies. In contrast, the Li and B inventories of metamorphic minerals are related to the lizardite-to-antigorite transition. Both elements display higher concentrations in the low-temperature serpentine polymorph lizardite (max. 156 μg/g Li, max. 318 μg/g B) than in antigorite (max. 0.11 μg/g Li, max. 12 μg/g B). Calculated average B/Li ratios for lizardite (∼1395) and antigorite (∼115) indicate that Li fractionates from B during the lizardite-to-antigorite transition during prograde metamorphism in ultramafic rocks. In subduction zones, this signature is likely to be recorded in the B-rich nature of forearc fluids.Relative to oceanic mantle the Be content of mantle clinopyroxene is much higher, but similar to Be values from mantle xenoliths and subduction-related peridotite massifs. These data support previous hypothesis that the mantle rocks from the Eastern Central Alps have a subcontinental origin. We conclude that Be behaves conservatively during subduction metamorphism of ultramafic rocks, at least at low-temperature, and thus retains the fingerprint of ancient subduction-related igneous events in mantle peridotites.     

Dissolution of calcitic marble and dolomitic rock in high iron concentrated acid mine drainage: application to anoxic limestone drains

Oxidation of sulphide mining waste can generate acid mine drainage (AMD) that has the potential to seriously affect the ecosystems. Acid mine drainage is characterised by a high acidity, high concentrations of sulphates and metals. To reduce the environmental impacts due to AMD, neutralisation using limestone drains is an option proposed in the literature and used around the world. The present study focuses on the influence of the carbonate rock mineralogy and their particle size on the neutralising capacity. The tests were performed in two different anoxic conditions: in batch reactors, and in columns having a hydraulic retention time of 15?h. The results showed that the neutralisation capacity of calcite was more important than for dolomitic rock, and smaller particle size gave higher alkalinity production (fine calcite dissolved faster in contact with AMD). A characterization of metal precipitate in sludge and in limestone coating was performed and demonstrated that gypsum, lepidocrocite and goethite were the predominant secondary minerals to be formed. Finally, this study underlines that anoxic limestone drain cannot be used alone to treat high iron concentrated AMD.     

Oxygen isotopic composition of Central Sierra Nevada precipitation, I. Identification of ice-phase water capture regions in winter storms

Measurements of the stable isotopic ratios of oxygen and simultaneously observed ice crystal structure in freshly fallen snow, have been used to estimate the weighted mean altitudes of ice-phase precipitation formation in winter clouds over the Central Sierra Nevada.Observations of dominant, diffusionally grown ice-crystal habits were used to estimate relatively narrow ranges of temperatures of initial formation of the precipitation particles using the Nakaya (1954) ice-crystal classification techniques. The mean oxygen isotope ratio ¹⁸O/¹⁶O for each snow sample, together with local upper air soundings, were used to estimate ranges of temperature-altitude within the clouds where the precipitating particles had captured their ice-phase water. For this initial study, snow samples were collected each five (5) to ten (10) minutes during three snowfall periods on 27 January, 26 February and 28 February, 1983.For the 27 January case, the ice formation mechanism was predominantly vapor deposition and hence the narrow range of temperatures determined by the ice-crystal habits was directly relatable to the mean δ¹⁸O value.The 26 and 28 February cases were more complicated because the solid-phase precipitation was formed by vapor deposition and by freezing of drops and droplets (which occurs without isotopic fractionation). In these cases, the oxygen isotopic composition of the snow reaching the ground was representative of solid phase precipitation which had formed at warmer temperatures than those corresponding to the primary ice-crystal habits alone. There was no apparent relationship between δ¹⁸O values and surface temperature at the sampling site.If relationships between ¹⁸O/¹⁶O and temperature-altitude are established for this geograpic region for winter snowfall conditions, this crystal habit—isotopic composition technique can provide knowledge about the regions of the clouds in which the ice-phase precipitation is forming over the Central Sierra Nevada.