主汛期降水量预测信号及方差权重方法的应用

为了制作四川盆地主汛期降水预报对相似方法作了改进,首先是根据四川盆地主汛期降水的前３个特征向量分别寻找有物理基础的前期信号作为预报因子,然后充分考虑各因子对总降水量贡献大小定义因子场的相似,确定相似年,最后引入“集成”的思想,由５个相似年的降水场得到预测年降水的定量客观预报。１９８１～１９９４共１４年的预报结果准确率高于当前业务预报水平。     

14时探空在改进北京地区对流天气潜势预报中的作用

为了探讨增加14时探空对于对流天气短时临近潜势预报的作用。用1995—2005年北京地区22个人工观测站资料统计了夏季常见的对流天气日变化特征。结果表明,41．6％的雷阵雨、61．3％的冰雹以及58．5％的雷暴大风发生在15—-20时之间。利用探空资料计算并对比了出现在2006年7—9月14时探空释放后到20时期问11个雷暴个例的08时和14时BCAPE、DCAPE、CIN等对流参数。结果表明,对于多数个例,在判断对流是否发生时14时探空优于08时。因此,增加14时探空对于提高对流天气有无预报准确率有帮助。     

含铁闪锌矿热容的实验测定与分析

利用美国ＤｕＰｏｎｔ公司的９９００型差示扫描量热仪对３个含铁闪锌矿样品的热容进行了实验测定,并讨论了定压摩尔热容实验值与实验温度的关系。实验结果表明,在实验条件下,含铁闪锌矿的定压摩尔热容与纯闪锌矿的定压摩尔热容存在显著差异,Ｆｅ置换Ｚｎ是造成这种差异的主要原因。     

Geochemistry of Brines from Salt Ore Deposits in Western Tarim Basin

In the geological evolution of the Tarim Basin, many transgressions and relictions happened. So there have been plentiful sources of salt. Moreover, because of uttermost drought, a lot of salt has been deposited. It is possible to find potash salt in this area. In our fieldwork, we have found salt and brine in western Tarim Basin. Based on a geological survey and the characteristics of sedimentary facies and paleogeography, this paper deals with the geochemical parameters and discusses the possibility of formation of potash salt in terms of the chemical analyses of samples collected from western Tarim Basin. Results of brine analysis lead to some conclusions: most of these salt brines have eluviated from very thick halite beds, mainly chloridetype salt and this kind of halite does not reach the stage of potash deposition in all aspects; WKSL (Wukeshalu) occupies a noticeable place, and we should attach importance to this district because there have been some indicators of the occurrence of potash deposits as viewed from the contents of Br and K. Finally, low Br contents are recognized in the Tarim Basin as a result of salt aggradation, and this point of view has been proved by the results of this experiment and the data available. It cannot depend upon the index of Br to judge the evolution stage of halite. We must look for other facies of potash except marine facies.     

黔中开阳磷矿沉积区震旦纪陡山沱期定量岩相古地理重建*

磷矿的沉积和成矿与成磷期的古地理环境密切相关。本文首次将“单因素分析多因素综合作图法”运用于开阳地区震旦纪陡山沱期沉积型磷矿床的成矿分析和找矿预测上。通过选取陡山沱组及其各岩性段的地层厚度及磷矿层品位作为单因素,确定开阳地区古地理格局;结合地层岩性组合、沉积特征等多因素综合分析,恢复开阳地区成矿期沉积环境,编制陡山沱早期、中期和晚期岩相古地理图。根据定量岩相古地理重建结果,认为开阳地区陡山沱期整体处于南靠黔中古陆、地势南高北低、局部地形复杂的滨岸海滩沉积环境,其中临滨带为最有利成矿带,局部地形变化也会造成矿层厚度、品位的差异;矿层受到的水流冲蚀、暴露、淋滤及再沉积作用是导致矿石品位显著提升的关键因素。通过定量岩相古地理学精确还原成矿期古地理环境、解析多期次沉积成矿过程,对于确定磷矿控矿因素、构建找矿预测模型和预测矿体空间位置具有重要意义。     

石笋氧同位素和微量元素记录的陕南地区4200～2000a B.P.高分辨率季风降雨变化

基于陕南祥龙洞石笋XL2的19个230Th年龄、218个氧同位素分析以及896个Sr/Ca分析数据,高分辨率重建了4200～1972a B.P.期间陕南地区季风降雨变化.重建结果显示陕南地区这一时期季风降雨有显著的127～105a和57a周期,可能分别受控于太阳活动、PDO和/或AMO的变化.重建时段有3次百年尺度的干旱事件,分别发生于2200～2100a B.P.,2900～2700a B.P.和3600～3400a B.P.,其中2900～2700a B.P.干旱事件对应于北大西洋地区2.8ka冷事件.对比研究显示,尽管祥龙洞石笋和董哥洞石笋δ18O记录整体一致,但除了2900～ 2700aB.P.干旱事件之外,其他两次干旱事件在董哥洞石笋记录中并不明显.而尽管总体上祥龙洞和和尚洞石笋δ18O记录的差异要大,但XL2的3次干旱事件在和尚洞记录都有明显体现.有精确年代控制的祥龙洞、董哥洞及和尚洞石笋氧同位素记录的差异,揭示晚全新世我国季风降雨在十一百年尺度存在区域差异.     

Investigations and assessment of the landslide hazards of Fengdu county in the reservoir region of the Three Gorges project on the Yangtze River

The spatial database of landslides in Fengdu County of the reservoir region of the Three Gorges project (TGP) on the Yangtze River was compiled from a variety of different sources including field investigations on landslides, existing catalogues and archives on landslides, reports of meteorological events and human engineering activities that triggered slope failures. The major factors that are found to have affected the slope stabilities are outlined, and an assessment and zonation of landslide hazards of the region is made using an integrated information model, which is divided into destructive, disastrous, likely disastrous and essentially non-disastrous areas from the assessment of landslide hazards. The destructive and disastrous areas are respectively 1.9 and 13.8% of the total region, mostly being nearby townships, highways along the south bank of the Yangtze River and residential quarters along two flanks of the Yangtze River and its distributaries, that will impose direct impact to highway transportation and residential lives, and may effect to some degree the navigation of the Yangtze River, reservoir banks, and building of cities and towns.     

四川盆地西北部二叠系栖霞阶层序地层特征及地质意义

基于露头、钻井岩心和测录井资料,采用层序地层学理论与方法,将四川盆地西北部二叠系梁山组+栖霞组作为一个整体予以解剖,识别出梁山组底界面(Ⅰ型)、栖一段与栖二段界面(Ⅱ型)和栖霞组与茅口组界面(Ⅰ型)3个三级层序界面,将中二叠统栖霞阶划分为2个三级层序: 下部的SQ1层序对应梁山组+栖一段,上部的SQ2层序对应栖二段。通过栖霞阶层序地层格架分析,发现栖霞阶地层存在“底超顶削”的充填规律,统计并绘制SQ1与SQ2层序地层厚度等值线图,对研究区栖霞阶SQ1初期和SQ2期构造—古地理格局进行了恢复,在明确SQ2期为栖霞阶主要成滩期的基础上,结合岩溶发育单元及白云岩展布特征,讨论栖霞阶油气储集意义。结果表明:区内栖霞阶存在北西、北东向隆坳分异,汉南隆起、川北隆起、北缘隆起与广元—旺苍凹陷始终控制了区内沉积格局,指出广元—旺苍海槽雏形始于二叠系栖霞阶。研究区岩溶白云岩孔洞型储集层区与环广元—旺苍凹陷周缘的灰岩岩溶型储集层区为有利的勘探区。     

基于GMS的三维TOUGH2模型及模拟

GMS和TOUGH2均是应用广泛的地下流动系统数值模拟软件,其中,GMS界面友好,功能强大;而TOUGH2虽具有强大的数值计算能力,但缺乏友好的可视化前后处理界面。本文借助GMS强大的前处理能力,基于概念模型建立了三维复杂模型,把GMS/MODFLOW三维数值模型(包括网格数据、岩性数据、初始和边界数据等)转化为TOUGH2数值模型进行数值计算。通过两个计算实例(含水层水平没有起伏和有起伏)对比分析了GMS/MODFLOW和TOUGH2计算结果的差异。结果显示,该方法可以快速地建立刻画复杂地质条件的TOUGH2模型,计算结果与GMS/MODFLOW差异很小,说明两个软件均有很高的可信度;同时,该方法发挥了两个软件各自的优势,为进行更为复杂的多相流动数值模拟提供了可行性。     

柿竹园矿床大理岩型锡矿石工艺矿物学研究

大理岩型锡矿石产于燕山早、中期千里山花岗岩与中、上泥盆统灰岩的外接触带。矿石呈细脉、网脉浸染状,锡矿物有:锡石、黄锡矿,富钛尼日利亚石、尼日利亚石和木锡矿,脉石矿物绿帘石、石榴石、电气石、萤石、方解石及磁黄铁矿等亦含锡,锡主要呈锡的浊立矿物存在,占总锡量的89.78％,其中锡石锡占总锡量的80.01％,其次有呈类质同象形式存在的锡,在绿帘石、石榴石、电气石等矿物中以Sn~(4+)取代Fe~(3+),这类锡占总量的8.33％。工艺矿物学研究表明,该类锡矿石以“贫”、“细”、“杂”为特征。锡不仅十分分散,而且品位偏低,矿石矿物组合及镶嵌关系复杂、相互包裹,紧密连生;锡矿物粒度微细,粒径一般为0.2～0.01mm,部分为<0.0l～0.002mm,是一种难选的锡矿石类型。通过锡的回收试验,采用选冶联合工艺流程,预测锡的最佳回收率可达50％以上。