Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis

This paper illustrates how sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis can be useful tools in risk assessment of groundwater pollution. The approach is applied to a study area in Hungary with several known groundwater pollution sources and nearby drinking water production wells. The main concern is whether the contamination sources threaten the drinking water wells of the area. A groundwater flow and transport model is set up to answer this question. Due to limited data availability, the results of this model are associated with large uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis are applied to estimate this uncertainty and build confidence in the model results.     

Effect of wave amplitude on turbulent flow in a wavy channel by direct numerical simulation

The present study numerically investigates the characteristics of three-dimensional turbulent flow in a wavy channel. For the purpose of a careful observation of the effect of the wave amplitude on the turbulent flow, numerical simulations are performed at a various range of the wave amplitude to wavelength ratio (0.01?α/λ?0.05), where the wavelength is fixed with the same value of the mean channel height (H). The immersed boundary method is used to handle the wavy surface in a rectangular grid system, using the finite volume method. The Reynolds number (Re=U_bH/ν) based on the bulk velocity (U_b) is fixed at 6760. The present computational results for a wavy surface are well compared with those of references. When α/λ=0.02, the small recirculating flow occurs near the trough at the instant, but the mean reverse flow is not observed. In the mean flow field, the reverse flow appears from α/λ=0.03 among the wave amplitude considered in this study. The domain of the mean reverse flow defined by the locations of separation and reattachment depends strongly on the wave amplitude. The pressure drag coefficient augments with increasing the wave amplitude. The friction drag coefficient shows the increase and decrease behavior according to the wave amplitude. The quantitative information about the flow variables such as the distribution of pressure and shear stress on the wavy surface is highlighted.     

Regional decoupling between NW Atlantic barnacle recruit and adult density is related to changes in pelagic food supply and benthic disturbance

We investigated the regional variation in barnacle (Semibalanus balanoides) recruit and adult abundance on the NW Atlantic coast. At the end of the recruitment season (June–July), we sampled wave-exposed rocky intertidal sites in two regions on the open Atlantic coast (Maine, AM, and Nova Scotia, AN) and in two regions on the Gulf of St. Lawrence coast (Northumberland Strait, GN, and Cape Breton Island, GC). Recruit density was highest in the southernmost region (AM), followed by GN and, then, by AN and GC. Regional values of nearshore primary productivity (satellite data of chlorophyll-a concentration, a surrogate for phytoplankton abundance) were highest for AM and GN, suggesting that food supply (barnacles are filter feeders) is an important factor determining regional recruitment patterns. Adult barnacle density was regionally decoupled from recruit density. Adults occurred in very low abundances on the Gulf of St. Lawrence coast (GN and GC) and were relatively abundant on the Atlantic coast (AM and AN), although always in much lower abundances than recruits. The low adult densities on the Gulf of St. Lawrence coast seem to result mainly from intense ice scour, as this coast freezes extensively every winter, as opposed to the ice-free Atlantic coast. Ice scour thus appears to override regional recruitment differences in determining adult density. Therefore, our data suggest that both pelagic food supply and benthic disturbance contribute to setting regional patterns in barnacle population structure on the NW Atlantic coast.     

Use of Sonication for Enhanced Sampling of Attached Microbes from Groundwater Systems

The vast majority of microorganisms in aquifers live as biofilms on sediment surfaces, which presents significant challenges for sampling as only the suspended microbes will be sampled through normal pumping. The use of a down-well low frequency sonicator has been suggested as a method of detaching microbes from the biofilm and allowing rapid sampling of this community. We developed a portable, easy to use, low-frequency electric sonicator and evaluated its performance for a range of well depths (tested up to 42 m below ground level) and casing types. Three sonicators were characterized in laboratory experiments using a 1 m long tank filled with pea gravel. These included a commercially available pneumatic sonicator, a rotating flexible shaft sonicator, and the prototype electric sonicator. The electric sonicator detached between 56 and 74% of microbes grown on gravel-containing biobags at distances ranging between 2 and 50 cm from the sonicator. The field testing comprises of a total of 55 sampling events from 48 wells located in 4 regions throughout New Zealand. Pre- and post-sonication samples showed an average 33 times increase in bacterial counts. Microbial sequence data showed that the same classes are present in pre- and post-sonicated samples and only slight differences were seen in the proportions present. The sampling process was rapid and the significant increases in bacterial counts mean that microbial samples can be quickly obtained from wells, which permits more detailed analysis than previously possible.     

Use of Fuzzy Membership Input Layers to Combine Subjective Geological Knowledge and Empirical Data in a Neural Network Method for Mineral-Potential Mapping

Use of GIS layers, in which the cell values represent fuzzy membership variables, is an effective method of combining subjective geological knowledge with empirical data in a neural network approach to mineral-prospectivity mapping. In this study, multilayer perceptron (MLP), neural networks are used to combine up to 17 regional exploration variables to predict the potential for orogenic gold deposits in the form of prospectivity maps in the Archean Kalgoorlie Terrane of Western Australia. Two types of fuzzy membership layers are used. In the first type of layer, the statistical relationships between known gold deposits and variables in the GIS thematic layer are used to determine fuzzy membership values. For example, GIS layers depicting solid geology and rock-type combinations of categorical data at the nearest lithological boundary for each cell are converted to fuzzy membership layers representing favorable lithologies and favorable lithological boundaries, respectively. This type of fuzzy-membership input is a useful alternative to the 1-of-N coding used for categorical inputs, particularly if there are a large number of classes. Rheological contrast at lithological boundaries is modeled using a second type of fuzzy membership layer, in which the assignment of fuzzy membership value, although based on geological field data, is subjective. The methods used here could be applied to a large range of subjective data (e.g., favorability of tectonic environment, host stratigraphy, or reactivation along major faults) currently used in regional exploration programs, but which normally would not be included as inputs in an empirical neural network approach.     

Provenance of the Bosnian Flysch

Sandwiched between the Adriatic Carbonate Platform and the Dinaride Ophiolite Zone, the Bosnian Flysch forms a c. 3000 m thick, intensely folded stack of Upper Jurassic to Cretaceous mixed carbonate and siliciclastic sediments in the Dinarides. New petrographic, heavy mineral, zircon U/Pb and fission-track data as well as biostratigraphic evidence allow us to reconstruct the palaeogeology of the source areas of the Bosnian Flysch basin in late Mesozoic times. Middle Jurassic intraoceanic subduction of the Neotethys was shortly followed by exhumation of the overriding oceanic plate. Trench sedimentation was controlled by a dual sediment supply from the sub-ophiolitic high-grade metamorphic soles and from the distal continental margin of the Adriatic plate. Following obduction onto Adria, from the Jurassic–Cretaceous transition onwards a vast clastic wedge (Vranduk Formation) was developed in front of the leading edge, fed by continental basement units of Adria that experienced Early Cretaceous synsedimentary cooling, by the overlying ophiolitic thrust sheets and by redeposited elements of coeval Urgonian facies reefs grown on the thrust wedge complex. Following mid-Cretaceous deformation and thermal overprint of the Vranduk Formation, the depozone migrated further towards SW and received increasing amounts of redeposited carbonate detritus released from the Adriatic Carbonate Platform margin (Ugar Formation). Subordinate siliciclastic source components indicate changing source rocks on the upper plate, with ophiolites becoming subordinate. The zone of the continental basement previously affected by the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous thermal imprint has been removed; instead, the basement mostly supplied detritus with a wide range of pre-Jurassic cooling ages. However, a c. 80 Ma, largely synsedimentary cooling event is also recorded by the Ugar Formation, that contrasts the predominantly Early Cretaceous cooling of the Adriatic basement and suggests, at least locally, a fast exhumation.     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.     

Submicroscopic accessory minerals overprinting clay mineral REE patterns (celadonite–glauconite group examples)

Samples of glauconite, representing different stages of glauconitisation, as well as different formation environments, were analysed for rare earth elements (REE) and other trace elements using a combination of bulk sample and spatially-resolved in situ techniques. The results indicate that the high-sensitivity, spatially-resolved technique of laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) produces values up to two orders of magnitude lower than the bulk sample analyses. This suggests that submicroscopic rare earth element-bearing phases are distributed within the glauconite aggregates comprising the bulk samples. Analytical scanning electron microscopy (ASEM) revealed the presence of micrometre-sized grains of apatite and pore filling precipitates of an unidentified (REE, Ca)-phosphate (approximate composition Ca_0.3–0.4(Ce_0.4La_0.1–0.2Nd_0.1)PO₄) in some glauconite grains.The inherent REE concentrations of the glauconite aggregates (i.e., glauconite crystallites without accidental mechanical inclusions or authigenic, not layer silicate mineral precipitates) was found to be relatively low (e.g., typically less than 100 ppm), and this value decreased with increasing glauconitisation (smectite–mica transformation through a series of recrystallisation processes). These results suggest that the REEs substitute for Ca in the interlayer space of the layer silicate structure and, therefore, the REE content decreases as Ca is progressively removed from the interlayer (smectite–mica transition).LA-ICP-MS, when combined with electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) or ASEM, offers an opportunity to exclude submicroscopic accessory minerals from glauconite trace element analyses, and so produces reliable trace element data for the respective minerals which host those elements.These results illustrate that accessory minerals are difficult to eliminate from clay samples, and that care needs to be taken in the interpretation of clay mineral REE distributions, irrespective of the aggregation state of the studied clay (i.e., whether finely dispersed within the sedimentary rock, or forming millimetre-sized aggregates). Model calculations showed that authigenic apatite associated with the studied green marine clays tends to have higher REE content than “bioapatites”, the total REE content being above 10 000 ppm.     

Impacts of Kelvin wave forcing in the Peru Humboldt Current system: Scenarios of spatial reorganizations from physics to fishers

Because climate change challenges the sustainability of important fish populations and the fisheries they support, we need to understand how large scale climatic forcing affects the functioning of marine ecosystems. In the Humboldt Current system (HCS), a main driver of climatic variability is coastally-trapped Kelvin waves (KWs), themselves originating as oceanic equatorial KWs. Here we (i) describe the spatial reorganizations of living organisms in the Humboldt coastal system as affected by oceanic KWs forcing, (ii) quantify the strength of the interactions between the physical and biological component dynamics of the system, (iii) formulate hypotheses on the processes which drive the redistributions of the organisms, and (iv) build scenarios of space occupation in the HCS under varying KW forcing. To address these questions we explore, through bivariate lagged correlations and multivariate statistics, the relationships between time series of oceanic KW amplitude (TAO mooring data and model-resolved baroclinic modes) and coastal Peruvian oceanographic data (SST, coastal upwelled waters extent), anchoveta spatial distribution (mean distance to the coast, spatial concentration of the biomass, mean depth of the schools), and fishing fleet statistics (trip duration, searching duration, number of fishing sets and catch per trip, features of the foraging trajectory as observed by satellite vessel monitoring system). Data sets span all or part of January 1983 to September 2006. The results show that the effects of oceanic KW forcing are significant in all the components of the coastal ecosystem, from oceanography to the behaviour of the top predators – fishers. This result provides evidence for a bottom-up transfer of the behaviours and spatial stucturing through the ecosystem. We propose that contrasting scenarios develop during the passage of upwelling versus downwelling KWs. From a predictive point of view, we show that KW amplitudes observed in the mid-Pacific can be used to forecast which system state will dominate the HCS over the next 2–6 months. Such predictions should be integrated in the Peruvian adaptive fishery management.