致密砂岩储层含气测井特征及定量评价

致密砂岩储层孔隙度低、渗透率低、非均质性强,气层所对应的测井响应特征较为复杂,气层识别和评价难度较大、多解性突出。传统上,利用常规测井曲线进行含气性评价多是定性评价,在利用智能识别法评价含气性时,也是利用分类模型进行定性评价;而利用常规测井资料定量评价含气性比较困难。本文首先以岩心、地质、试气资料和常规测井曲线为基础,利用交会图法进行致密砂岩含气特征分析,建立含气性定性评价指标;然后,利用广义回归神经网络（GRNN）预测含气量和含水量,构造含气性和含水性指示曲线,定量评价致密砂岩的含气性;最后,定性评价和定量评价综合使用,以评价致密砂岩含气性,并在苏里格地区盒₈段进行应用,取得了较好的应用效果。     

Dynamic simulation of tropical coral reef ecosystem being disturbed by multiple situations

In consideration of the rapid degradation of coral reef ecosystems, the establishment of models is helpful to comprehend the degradation mechanism of coral reef ecosystems and predict the development process of coral reef communities. According to the characteristics of complex ecosystem of tropical coral reefs in China, the coral reef functional group is the core level variable; combined with the multiple feedback effects of coral reef functional groups and environmental changes, the study presents a coral reef ecosystem dynamics model with hermatypic corals as the core. Based on the simulation of the assumed initial value and the internal feedback of the system, the results show that in the basic simulation(relative health conditions), the coverage area of live corals and coral reefs generally decreased first and then increased, and increased by 4.67% and 6.38% between2010 and 2050, respectively. Based on the calibration model and the current situation of the studied area, the multi-factor disturbance effects of coral reef communities were simulated and explored by setting up three scenarios involving fishing policy, terrestrial deposition, and inorganic nitrogen emissions. Among them, in the single factor disturbance, the fishing policy exerts the most direct impact on the community decline; and the succession phenomenon is obvious; the terrestrial sedimentation has a faster and more integrated effect on the community decline; the effect of inorganic nitrogen emission on the community decline is relatively slow. In the double/multi-factor disturbance, the superimposed disturbance will aggravate the multi-source feedback effect of the coral reef communities development, accelerate the community decay rate, and make its development trajectory more complicated and diverse. This method provides a scientific and feasible method for simulating the damage of long-term coral reef community and exploring the development law and adaptive management of coral reef ecosystems. In the future, it can be further studied in the ecological restoration process and decisionmaking direction of coral reefs.     

养殖贝类碳汇价格核算研究

养殖贝类是最有效的生物固碳方式之一,其碳汇功能作为海洋生态系统功能的一部分,兼具生态和经济属性,碳汇价格的核算可为海水贝类养殖产业补贴提供数据参考,提高碳汇养殖产业的生产积极性,对海洋GEP核算等提供一定借鉴。目前碳汇价格研究较为缺乏,碳汇价格受限于碳汇计量方法的不完善,因此文章基于碳储量变化原理,对养殖环境中的养殖贝类固碳基础公式进行改进,补充了附着贝类固碳与生物沉积物固碳两个计算参数,以此为切入点选取并改进海洋牧场碳汇定价方法,以东方云溪海洋牧场作为研究区进行案例计算,结果为：海湾扇贝、栉孔扇贝与褶牡蛎的碳汇价格分别为165元/t、185元/t和272元/t;使用改进后的碳汇计量方法得到的养殖贝类单位个体固碳量较高,其中生物沉积固碳对提高单位个体固碳量的作用最为突出,约占贝类自身固碳的91%,主要与养殖海域的水文条件有关;较高的固碳量形成了较低的碳汇价格,固碳量与成本收益因素共同影响养殖贝类的碳汇价格;长远来看,碳汇价格会随着固碳计量的愈加完善而降低。     

长江口南支潮流的一个数值模拟

为了能够精确地拟合天然水域不规则的水陆边界,并能保持有限差分数值计算在矩形网格中进行,本文利用Thompson的数值网格生成技术,在长江口南支七丫口至横沙河段设计了一个椭圆型边界拟合坐标系,并在这个坐标系下建立了平面二维潮流数学模型。通过数值求解此数学模型,实现了计算区域内现状潮流的一个数值模拟,模拟结果表明,模式的设计是成功的。     

出租车轨迹数据挖掘进展

大数据、物联网与精密定位技术的发展推动了城市感知的进步。随着社会活动的与日俱增,出租车轨迹数据不仅记录了出租车的行车轨迹,还蕴藏着道路交通状态、城市居民出行规律、城市结构及其他社会问题。通过各种数据分析与挖掘手段对出租车轨迹数据进行深入探究,对于智能交通、城市规划等有着重要意义。本文综述了近十年国内外基于出租车轨迹大数据的相关研究,按照空间统计方法、时间序列方法、图论与网络方法及机器学习方法等4类,详细阐述各类方法的研究现状。随后,本文分析了现有研究的应用领域、热点主题和发展趋势。最后,本文指出了出租车轨迹数据挖掘研究领域面临的挑战和未来研究方向。     

Modeling the risk of nitrate leaching and nitrate runoff loss from intensive farmland in the Baiyangdian Basin of the North China Plain

The water movement and soil nitrogen cycle of the Baiyangdian Basin were simulated, and the risk of nitrate leaching and nitrate runoff loss from intensive farmland was assessed by using the distributed hydrological soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) in this study. The model assessment showed that SWAT was able to simulate water and nitrate movement in the region with satisfactory results. The modeling analysis indicated that fertilizer application was the overriding source of soil nitrogen and might result in a large amount of nitrate accumulation in soils; this nitrate might be lost by leaching or runoff driven by water movement. In 2009, nitrate nitrogen leaching represented 19.5 % of the total amount of nitrogen fertilizer application, while nitrate nitrogen runoff represented 1.7 % only. Thus, it showed that the nitrate leaching was the main approach of soil nitrogen movement in farmland because of strong percolation. It also showed a significant variation of nitrate leaching from different soil depths, with the largest amount leached from surface soil layers and the smallest amount leached from lower soil layers. Therefore, it could be further revealed that the nitrate concentration was very low at soil layers lower than the root zone of crops (1.2 m). Validated by groundwater observations, groundwater pollution by nitrate derived from fertilizers was not serious because of the deep groundwater level in the study plain. However, the risk of groundwater pollution would increase significantly if precipitation increased.     

Petrological and Os Isotopic Characteristics of Zedong Peridotites in the Eastern Yarlung–Zangbo Suture in Tibet

The Zedong ophiolites in the eastern Yarlung–Zangbo suture zone of Tibet represent a mantle slice of more than 45 km~2. This massif consists mainly of mantle peridotites, with lesser gabbros, diabases and volcanic rocks. The mantle peridotites are mostly harzburgite, lherzolite; a few dike-like bodies of dunite are also present. Mineral structures show that the peridotites experienced plastic deformation and partial melting. Olivine(Fo89.7–91.2), orthopyroxene(En_(88–92)), clinopyroxene(En_(45–49) Wo_(47–51) Fs_(2–4)) and spinel [Mg~#=100×Mg/(Mg+Fe)]=49.1–70.7; Cr~#=(100×Cr/(Cr+Al)=18.8–76.5] are the major minerals. The degree of partial melting of mantle peridotites is 10%–40%, indicating that the Zedong mantle peridotites may experience a multi–stage process. The peridotites are characterized by depleted major element compositions and low REE content(0.08–0.62 ppm). Their "spoon–shaped" primitive–mantle normalized REE patterns with(La/Sm)_N being 0.50–6.00 indicate that the Zedong ultramafic rocks belong to depleted residual mantle rocks. The PGE content of Zedong peridotites(18.19–50.74 ppb) is similar with primary mantle with Pd/Ir being 0.54–0.60 and Pt/Pd being 1.09–1.66. The Zedong peridotites have variable, unradiogenic Os isotopic compositions with ~(187)Os/~(188)Os=0.1228 to 0.1282. A corollary to this interpretation is that the convecting upper mantle is heterogeneous in Os isotopes. All data of the Zedong peridotites suggest that they formed originally at a mid-ocean ridge(MOR) and were later modified in supra–subduction zone(SSZ) environment.     

液化土层地震动模拟计算方法及验证

针对目前土层反应分析方法难以模拟液化土层地震动时程的缺欠,在工程力学研究所原有有效应力分析程序基础上提出了一个改进的计算方法并进行了验证。改进方法中,通过每个应力循环模拟土的非线性进程以及液化导致的土刚度衰减过程,并引入了新建立的适于非均等固结随机地震荷载作用下的孔压增长模型。将计算方法与实际地震记录及大型振动台实验结果进行了对比,结果表明：在峰值加速度、液化后波形变化、时频曲线及加速度反应谱等主要特征上,计算结果均与现场实际记录及振动台实验基本一致;在液化引起地震动特征变化上,计算出的液化较非液化土层加速度反应谱的增量与实验结果一致。说明所提出的改进方法可以用于液化土层地震动的模拟。     

准噶尔盆地周边硅质岩激光40Ar/39Ar法定年

由于较低的钾元素含量以及过剩氩的存在,长期以来对硅质岩的40Ar/39Ar定年一直存在较大难度。近年来,由于仪器水平的不断提高,新实验技术和方法的应用,特别是激光全熔40Ar/39Ar定年技术的应用,40Ar/39Ar定年方法具有了足够高的测试精度和稳定的低本底水平,可以满足测试极低钾元素含量的硅质岩样品的要求。利用多组矿物颗粒测试数据计算等时线年龄的方法可以很好地去除过剩氩对硅质岩年龄的影响。本文利用激光全熔40Ar/39Ar定年方法对新疆准噶尔盆地边缘的两个硅质岩样品进行了定年研究。采自白碱滩地区的08BJT-3样品的年龄测试结果为294±14Ma,该年龄结果与硅质岩样品所处的晚石炭世地层沉积年代基本一致。采自卡拉麦里地区的KML-2样品的年龄测试结果为266±14Ma,该年龄结果与强烈变形改造硅质岩样品的卡拉麦里构造变形带活动年代十分一致,表明激光全熔40Ar/39Ar定年方法可以准确地对硅质岩进行定年。     

Characteristic of Gravity and Magnetic Anomalies in the Daba Shan and the Sichuan basin, China: Implication for Architecture of the Daba Shan

The Dabashan nappe structural belt links the Hannan block to the west with the Huangling block to the east between Yangxian and Xiangfan. The Dabashan arc-shaped fold belt formed during late Jurassic and was superposed on earlier Triassic folds. To achieve an improved understanding of the deep tectonics of the Dabashan nappe structural belt, we processed and interpreted the gravity and magnetic data for this area using new deep reflection seismic and other geophysical data as constraints. The results show that the Sichuan basin and Daba Mountains lie between the Longmenshan and Wulingshan gravity gradient belts. The positive magnetic anomalies around Nanchong-Tongjiang-Wanyuan-Langao and around Shizhu result from the crystalline basement. Modeling of the gravity and magnetic anomalies in the Daba Mountains and the Sichuan basin shows that the crystalline basement around Nanchong-Tongjiang-Wanyuan-Langao extends to the northeast underneath the Wafangdian fault near Ziyang. The magnetic field boundary in the Zhenba-Wanyuan-Chengkou-Zhenping area is the major boundary of the Dabashan nappe thrusting above the Sichuan Basin. This boundary might be the demarcation between the south Dabashan and the north Dabashan structural elements. The low gravity anomaly between Tongjiang and Chengkou might be partly caused by thickened lower crust. The local low gravity anomaly to the south of Chengkou-Wanyuan might result from Mesozoic strata of low density in the Dabashan foreland depression area.