中国地质灾害气象预警实践:2003-2012

中国地质灾害气象预警始于2003年,每年汛期(5~9月)向公众社会发布预警信息,警示群众注意防范降雨引发的崩塌滑坡泥石流等地质灾害。本文概略介绍了2003-2012年中国地质灾害气象预警的工作机制、技术方法和预警效果等方面的成就。工作机制方面,采用国家级、省级和市县级的分级运行管理方式,并不断健全和完善了预警合作机制和信息共享机制。技术方法方面,创建了隐式统计预警(临界降雨量判据法)和显式统计预警(地质环境与降雨多参数耦合判据)两代预警模型,并研发了相应的业务运行系统,有效指导了区域地质灾害气象预警、地质灾害群测群防和典型地区专业监测预警研究。预警成效方面,通过电视、网络、手机短信、微信微博等多种媒体发布地质灾害预警信息,使社会公众特别是基层社区居民的防灾意识显著增强,减灾知识逐渐增长,合理利用地质环境,主动防治地质灾害已在中国取得广泛的共识。     

RELOCATION OF THE 23 NOVEMBER 2017 WULONG MS5.0 EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE AND ANALYSIS OF ITS SEISMOGENIC FAULT

The Wulong M_S5.0 earthquake on 23 November 2017, located in the Wolong sap between Wenfu, Furong and Mawu faults, is the biggest instrumentally recorded earthquake in the southeastern Chongqing. It occurred unexpectedly in a weak earthquake background with no knowledge of dramatically active faults. The complete earthquake sequences offered a significant source information example for focal mechanism solution, seismotectonics and seismogenic mechanism, which is helpful for the estimation of potential seismic sources and level of the future seismic risk in the region. In this study, we firstly calculated the focal mechanism solutions of the main shock using CAP waveform inversion method and then relocated the main shock and aftershocks by the method of double-difference algorithm. Secondly, we determined the seismogenic fault responsible for the M_S5.0 Wulong earthquake based on these calculated results. Finally, we explored the seismogenic mechanism of the Wulong earthquake and future potential seismic risk level of the region. The results show the parameters of the focal mechanism solution, which are:strike24°, dip 16°, and rake -108° for the nodal plane Ⅰ, and strike223°, dip 75°, and rake -85° for the nodal plane Ⅱ. The calculations are supported by the results of different agencies and other methods. Additionally, the relocated results show that the Wulong M_S5.0 earthquake sequence is within a rectangular strip with 4.7km in length and 2.4km in width, which is approximately consistent with the scales by empirical relationship of Wells and Coppersmith(1994). Most of the relocated aftershocks are distributed in the southwest of the mainshock. The NW-SE cross sections show that the predominant focal depth is 5~8km. The earthquake sequences suggest the occurrence features of the fault that dips northwest with dip angle of 63° by the least square method, which is largely consistent with nodal planeⅡof the focal mechanism solution. Coincidentally, the field outcrop survey results show that the Wenfu Fault is a normal fault striking southwest and dipping 60°~73° by previous studies. According to the above data, we infer that the Wenfu Fault is the seismogenic structure responsible for Wulong M_S5.0 earthquake. We also propose two preliminary genetic mechanisms of "local stress adjustment" and "fluid activation effect". The "local stress adjustment" model is that several strong earthquakes in Sichuan, such as M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, M7.0 Luzhou earthquake and M7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake, have changed the stress regime of the eastern margin of the Sichuan Basin by stress transference. Within the changed stress regime, a minor local stress adjustment has the possibility of making a notable earthquake event. In contract, the "fluid activation effect" model is mainly supported by the three evidences as follows:1)the maximum principle stress axial azimuth is against the regional stress field, which reflects NWW-SEE direction thrusting type; 2)the Wujiang River crosscuts the pre-existing Wenfu normal fault and offers the fluid source; and 3)fractures along the Wenfu Fault formed by karst dissolution offer the important fluid flow channels.     

陆地可控源电磁法探测效果的频率响应

陆地可控源电磁法的观测资料可依据频段范围近似地划分为近区场、中间区场及远区场,但采用测量相互正交电、磁分量,并计算视电阻率的资料处理方式只适用于远区场数据.为更有效地利用陆地可控源电磁法不同区间场的观测资料,本文结合三维数值模拟技术并采用电场分量直接进行反演的策略,对不同区间电场的响应特征与探测效果进行了分析.数值模拟结果表明:近区电场的异常响应最明显,异常响应不随频率发生显著变化,但纵向分辨能力差;远区电场异常响应随频率发生显著变化,其探测深度取决于频率的高低;中间区场较为复杂,地表电场异常响应的等值线中心并不是位于异常体中心正上方,而是在沿场传播方向上向异常体与围岩的分界面处偏移,并且发现中间区场资料的加入会影响反演结果的准确性.综合合成数据和野外实测资料的反演结果,发现结合近区场和远区场资料而舍弃中间区场资料的反演效果更佳,这为陆地可控源电磁法资料的反演解释提供了一种有效途径.     

ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSE OF THE PERMIAN VOLCANISM IN LUCAOGOU FORMATION IN JIMSAR SAG,JUNGGAR BASIN,NORTHWEST CHINA

The lithological features, the types of organic matter and its occurrence and carbon and oxygen isotopic value were clarified by combining core observation, thin slice authentication, X ray diffraction analysis, kerogen type identification and carbon and oxygen isotope analysis. The characteristic of strata, the distribution of volcanoes of Junggar Basin were also taken into consideration. A comprehensive analysis was conducted to evaluate environmental response of volcanism in Lucaogou formation in Jimsar sag. The results show that rocks is a mixed sedimentation of effusive rock and carbonate rocks, volcanic materials is widely developed in Lucaogou formation and origins from the edge of sag or distant source volcano activity. Organic matter is predominantly unstructural algae and asphaltene. The carbon isotopic value of carbonates ranges between 6.8‰ and 9.7‰ with an average of 8.3‰, featured in high positive excursions, while oxygen isotopic value varies from -11.9‰ to -4.3‰ with an average of -6.2‰. During the period of volcanic activity, the volcanic material released high amounts of nutrient to the lake basin, which is beneficial to the algae and other organic organisms. In the poor oxygen and calm water environments, the organic matter is distributed in the laminar algal and the carbon isotope value is high positive drift. During the intermittent period of volcanic activity, the lake level decreased and the lake bottom water changed to the oxygen-enriched environments. The organic matter is locally enriched or dispersed in local layers, and the carbon isotope values decreased slightly. The frequent volcanic activity promoted the organism boom, which lead carbon isotope value to have high positive characteristics and change trends.     

BIM技术在震后灾区居民装配式建筑设计中的应用

为解决震后灾区地形复杂,建筑建设困难问题,将BIM技术应用在震后灾区居民装配式建筑设计中,基于BIM体系框架设计震后灾区居民装配式建筑建造流程,通过设计阶段、工厂预制阶段、运输阶段以及安装阶段完成震后灾区居民装配式建筑项目的构建,采用Revit软件和Tekla软件构建装配式建筑的建筑模型和结构模型,利用BIM技术的可视化、参数化以及高合作性优势,优化模型以及构件,再通过Navisworks软件依据建筑模型实现建筑工程的碰撞检测,减少施工过程中的变更,降低建筑工程施工成本;通过基于BIM的震后建筑进度管理模型,实现建筑进化计划编制以及进度控制;利用Lumion软件输入工程材质实现建筑项目的实时漫游,直观了解装配式建筑效果。     

四川地区一维地壳速度模型研究

本文以四川地震台网2009~2014年的编目报告为基础,选择定位精度为1且记录台站数大于30的地震,筛选去除其中因定位深度误差或者空隙角偏大而造成的异常结果,验证了数据的合理性和稳定性;优选出47个地震,对其重新判读,结合折合走时调整以及Hyposat批处理方法,得到了适应四川地区地震的平均速度模型;并利用人工爆破事件、PTD方法的地震定位结果进行对比,分析使用不同模型时的结果差异。     

1856年重庆小南海地震地质灾害成因探讨

基于课题调查研究,解析历史地震记载和小南海地震遗址的现存形迹,梳理前人的认识,推算重力崩塌的势能及其相当的地震震级,探讨几种可能的地震地质灾害成因,同时也提出其他可能的诱发因素,认为小南海地震地质灾害可能是多次构造地震叠加的结果,也可能是纯粹的山体自然坍塌形成的塌陷型地震,而彻底揭开小南海地震地质灾害谜团还需人类科研实践的进一步发展,也需要更广泛学科的共同探讨。     

随钻斯通利波测井反演地层渗透率的理论、方法及应用

针对孔隙渗透地层的随钻声波测井问题,用Biot-Rosenbaum孔隙弹性波测井理论推导了孔隙地层的随钻井孔声场表达式.据此考察了随钻条件下井中斯通利波的波形、相速度频散、衰减以及相速度对渗透率的灵敏度,并与电缆测井中的情况进行了对比.数值模拟结果表明,随钻条件下斯通利波对地层渗透率的灵敏度相对于电缆测井有明显增加,更有利于用来反演地层渗透率.为快捷有效地处理现场测井数据和反演计算,采用简化Biot-Rosenbaum理论和钻铤的等效模型,对随钻斯通利波的频移和时滞进行联合反演.结果表明,随钻斯通利波反演的渗透率与核磁渗透率和岩心覆压测试渗透率符合较好,并且与常规测井曲线所反映的储层性质具有较好的一致性,证明了利用随钻斯通利波评价地层渗透率的有效性.     

会昌台洞体形变观测资料干扰分析

对会昌台数字化洞体形变观测资料的干扰因素进行了分析。分析结果表明,会昌台大多数洞体形变观测资料稳定可靠,年变动态清晰,受气象因素影响不大,形变与洞温相关性较好,年变受控于洞温变化。雷电击坏仪器导致断记是影响连续率的主要因素,更换仪器可能对形变的趋势变化造成一定影响。     

青藏高原东南缘热流估算及与地震活动相关性分析

青藏高原东南缘地区内部构造运动强烈,是地热资源发育与地震事件频发的活动地区.大地热流记录了发生在地球深部各种作用过程的热学信息,可以作为地质构造活动和地震活动研究的有效约束,但是大范围的热流数据测量很难实现,因此,本文根据居里面深度结合放射性元素分布等计算了青藏高原东南缘的大地热流分布.首先,通过地表放射性元素的分布计算出地表产热量的分布,然后,利用相关地热参数之间的关系迭代计算出该地区地壳上下层的热导率分布,最终估算出地表热流及地下不同深度处热流值的分布.本文结果表明:(1)青藏高原东南缘的大地热流位于44～108mW·m~(-2)之间,平均75mW·m~(-2),符合研究地区西南高、东北低的背景趋势,地壳内部热流值随深度的增加而降低.大部分地区地表热流异常与实际地热带分布相吻合,如川西、藏东南与滇西地区等地为地热高值区,川东和楚雄等地为热流低值区.(2)结合其他地球物理探测结果,总结了地壳内部热流与地震事件的联系:在地热梯度带地区,当两侧地层在一定深度范围内存在明显物性差异时,地震事件高发.