Probabilistic Assessment of Tsunami Recurrence in the Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean is one of the most tsunamigenic regions of the world and recently experienced a mega-tsunami in the Sumatra region on 26 December 2004 (M _W 9.2 earthquake) with tsunami intensity I (Soloviev-Imamura intensity scale) equal to 4.5, causing heavy destruction of lives and property in the Indian Ocean rim countries. In this study, probabilities of occurrences of large tsunamis with tsunami intensities I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0 (average wave heights H ≥ 2.83 m and H ≥ 5.66 m, respectively) during a specified time interval were calculated using three stochastic models, namely, Weibull, gamma and lognormal. Tsunami recurrence was calculated for the whole Indian Ocean and the special case of the Andaman-Sumatra-Java (ASJ) region, excluding the 1945 Makran event from the main data set. For this purpose, a reliable, homogeneous and complete tsunami catalogue with I ≥ 2.0 during the period 1797–2006 was used. The tsunami hazard parameters were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The logarithm of likelihood function (ln L) was estimated and used to test the suitability of models in the examined region. The Weibull model was observed to be the most suitable model to estimate tsunami recurrence in the region. The sample mean intervals of occurrences of tsunamis with intensity I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0 were calculated for the observed data as well as for the Weibull, gamma and lognormal models. The estimated cumulative and conditional probabilities in the whole Indian Ocean region show recurrence periods of about 27–30 years (2033–2036) and 35–36 years (2039–2040) for tsunami intensities I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0, respectively, while it is about 31–35 years (2037–2041) and 41–42 years (2045–2046) for a tsunami of intensity I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0, respectively, in the ASJ region. A high probability (>0.9) of occurrence of large tsunamis with I ≥ 2.0 in the next 30–40 years in the Indian Ocean region was revealed.     

Thermomechanical properties of deep argillaceous formations

A difficulty in the interpretation of mechanical and thermo-mechanical tests on specimens drawn from large argillaceous formations is the strong inhomogeneity of void ratio, clay minerals and carbonates content.

In this paper a relationship is developed to link strength and the maximum preconsolidation stress to the initial void ratio and carbonate content. Compressibility is also correlated to carbonates.

Thermal strains in drained and undrained conditions for a Spanish, a belgian and an Italian natural clay are compared. In the elastic state strains are comparable, while in the plastic range thermal strains are highest for the Belgian clay, lower in the Spanish cemented clay and lowest in the Italian clay, very stiff and cemented.     

Relative dispersion in the Liguro-Provençal basin: From sub-mesoscale to mesoscale

Relative dispersion in the Liguro-Provençal basin (a subregion of the Mediterranean Sea) is investigated using clusters of surface drifters deployed during two Marine Rapid Environment Assessment (MREA) experiments covering different months in 2007 and 2008, respectively. The clusters have initial radii of less than 1 km, or an order of magnitude below a typical deformation radius (approximately 10-20 km). The data set consists of 45 original pairs and more than 50 total pairs (including chance ones) in the spatial range between 1 and 200 km. Relative dispersion is estimated using the mean square separation of particle pairs and the Finite Scale Lyapunov Exponents (FSLEs). The two metrics show broadly consistent results, indicating in particular a clear exponential behaviour with an e-folding time scale between 0.5 and 1 days, or Lyapunov exponent ?? in the range of 0.7-1 days⁻¹. The exponential phase extends for 4-7 days in time and between 1 and 10-20 km in separation space. To our knowledge, this is only the third time that an exponential regime is observed in the world ocean from drifter data. This result suggests that relative dispersion in the Liguro-Provençal basin is nonlocal, namely controlled mainly by mesoscale dynamics, and that the effects of the sub-mesoscale motions are negligible in comparison. NCOM model results are used to complement the data and to quantify errors arising from the sparse sampling in the observations.     

Photometric Variability of Neptune, 1972-2000

We present Strömgren b (472-nm) and y (551-nm) photometry of Neptune based on photoelectric measurements obtained at every apparition from 1972 to 2000. Neptune has brightened by 11% in b and 10% in y since 1980 with most of the increase occurring after 1990. By appending b data to published B magnitudes measured at Lowell from 1950 to 1966 and transformed to b, we show that Neptune is now brighter than at any time during the past half century. The nature of the year-to-year variations changed around 1990 when a steady rising trend overshadowed what appeared to be an inverse correlation with cyclic solar activity. By matching observations in b and y with near-infrared J (1.2-μm) and K (2.2-μm) photometry before, during, and after Neptune's 1976 infrared outburst, we show that the pattern of visible albedo variation parallels the infrared variation but with an amplitude 20-50 times smaller. A detailed comparison of photometry with ground-based and Voyager images at visible and red wavelengths during the 1989 Voyager encounter shows that small brightness variations occur when large discrete features rotate across Neptune's disk. This provides a rough association between visible features and photometric effects that we use to infer the state of Neptune's atmosphere for years when only photometry was available. A year-by-year analysis of variance of the photometry suggests that the 1976 and 1986-1989 infrared outbursts were isolated episodes of unusually vigorous atmospheric activity. Detrended magnitudes of Neptune are correlated with solar activity over the entire 29-year interval as well as 22-year subintervals, with solar UV now being favored as a causative mechanism rather than solar modulated galactic cosmic rays.     

Investigation of Barred Galaxies. VII. Comparative Statistics of SB and SA Galaxies. Near and Mid-IR Regions

The near and mid-IR properties of barred and unbarred spiral galaxies are discussed on the basis of complete samples that were compiled earlier. The two types of spirals are shown not to differ from one another in emission power in the near and mid-IR ranges. Multiple regression and principal component analysis have been applied to investigate near and mid-IR properties of SB and SA galaxies, particularly their relation to X-ray and radio continuum emissions. There are definite differences between SB and SA spirals in the near and mid-IR. In the case of SB galaxies, the compactness of 10 m emission is closely related to the J - H color index, and the redder J - H color corresponds to relatively more extended emission at 10 m. It is assumed that these are caused by the bar itself, which stimulates enhanced star formation in a barred galaxy with respect to unbarred spiral.     

Light curve analysis of the new eclipsing binary LD355

The V light curve of eclipsing binary LD355 was analyzed by using the latest version of Wilson Program in order to derive photometric elements of this system. Since no spectroscopic mass ratio is available, the q‐search method was applied to yield the preliminary range of mass ratio in order to search for the final solution. The solution was performed by assuming detached (mode 2) and semi‐detached (mode 5) configurations, since no classification of the system based on the shape of light curve is possible. The solution in mode 5 leads to an acceptable model. The present solution reveals that LD355 has a photometric mass ratio q = 0.178 and is a semi‐detached binary with the secondary component filling the Roche lobe.     

Soft X-ray diagnostics of the kinematics of high-velocity clouds

We have made near-infrared photometric observations of nine β-Cephei and eight δ-Scuti stars inJ, H, andK bands. The observed fluxes are in good agreement with those expected according to their spectral types. We conclude that these stars do not have any anomalous emission in these near-infrared bands.     

The Aristarchus-Harbinger region of the moon: Surface geology and history from recent remote-sensing observations

The region including the Aristarchus Plateau and Montes Harbinger is probably the most diverse, geologically, of any area of comparble size on the Moon. This part of the northwest quadrant of the lunar near side includes unique dark mantling material; both the densest concentration and the largest of the sinuous rilles; apparent volcanic vents, sinks, and domes; mare materials of various ages and colors; one of the freshest large craters (Aristarchus) with ejecta having unique colors and albedos; and three other large craters in different states of flooding and degradation (krieger, Herodotus, and Prinz). The three best-authenticated lunar transient phenomena were also observed here.This study is based principally on photographic and remote sensing observations made from Earth and Apollo orbiting space craft. Results include (1) delineation of geologic map units and their stratigraphic relationships; (2) discussion of the complex interrelationships between materials of volcanic and impact origin, including the effects of excavation, redistribution and mixing of previously deposited materials by younger impact craters; (3) deduction of physical and chemical properties of certain of the geologic units, based on both the remote-sensing information and on extrapolation of Apollo data to this area; and (4) development of a detailed geologic history of the region, outlining the probable sequence of events that resulted in its present appearance.A primary concern of the investigation has been anomalous red dark mantle on the Plateau. Based on an integration of Earth- and lunar orbit-based data, this layer seems to consist of fine-grained, block-free material containing a relatively large fraction of orange glass. It is probably of pyroclastic origin, laid down at some time during the Imbrian period of mare flooding.