Electrical resistance sensors record spring flow timing, Grand Canyon, Arizona

Springs along the south rim of the Grand Canyon, Arizona, are important ecological and cultural resources in Grand Canyon National Park and are discharge points for regional and local aquifers of the Coconino Plateau. This study evaluated the applicability of electrical resistance (ER) sensors for measuring diffuse, low-stage (<1.0 cm) intermittent and ephemeral flow in the steep, rocky spring-fed tributaries of the south rim. ER sensors were used to conduct a baseline survey of spring flow timing at eight sites in three spring-fed tributaries in Grand Canyon. Sensors were attached to a nearly vertical rock wall at a spring outlet and were installed in alluvial and bedrock channels. Spring flow timing data inferred by the ER sensors were consistent with observations during site visits, with flow events recorded with collocated streamflow gauging stations and with local precipitation gauges. ER sensors were able to distinguish the presence of flow along nearly vertical rock surfaces with flow depths between 0.3 and 1.0 cm. Laboratory experiments confirmed the ability of the sensors to monitor the timing of diffuse flow on impervious surfaces. A comparison of flow patterns along the stream reaches and at springs identified the timing and location of perennial and intermittent flow, and periods of increased evapotranspiration.     

Are toxic contaminants accumulating in Massachusetts coastal sediments following startup of the Massachusetts Bay outfall: a comprehensive comparison of baseline and post-diversion periods

The Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) conducts monitoring to address concerns related to the 2000 diversion of secondarily treated effluent discharge into Massachusetts Bay. Baseline data (1992-2000) showed multiple regions defined by physical and chemical composition. Near the Massachusetts Bay outfall, there is a series of heterogeneous sediments in relatively close proximity to the primary historic source of contaminants (Boston Harbor). Farfield sediments exhibited greater compositional definition from one another, which was attributed to the greater spatial separation of the sampling locations. Factors that influence contaminant variability include local and distributed sources, and are primarily related to gradients in depositional environments. Post-diversion sediment data suggest that 4 years of treated effluent discharge has not increased contaminant concentrations to the bay system. However, abundance of the sewage tracer, Clostridium perfringens, has increased variably in sediments located within 2 km of the outfall, providing a distinct effluent signal near the outfall.     

Light-toned layered deposits in Juventae Chasma, Mars

We examine hypotheses for the formation of light-toned layered deposits in Juventae Chasma using a combination of data from Mars Global Surveyor's Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC), Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), and Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES), as well as Mars Odyssey's Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS). We divide Juventae Chasma into geomorphic units of (i) chasm wall rock, (ii) heavily cratered hummocky terrain, (iii) a mobile and largely crater-free sand sheet on the chasm floor, (iv) light-toned layered outcrop (LLO) material, and (v) chaotic terrain. Using surface temperatures derived from THEMIS infrared data and slopes from MOLA, we derive maps of thermal inertia, which are consistent with the geomorphic units that we identify. LLO thermal inertias range from ∼400 to 850 J m⁻² K⁻¹ s^−1/2. Light-toned layered outcrops are distributed over a remarkably wide elevation range () from the chasm floor to the adjacent plateau surface. Geomorphic features, the absence of small craters, and high thermal inertia show that the LLOs are composed of sedimentary rock that is eroding relatively rapidly in the present epoch. We also present evidence for exhumation of LLO material from the west wall of the chasm, within chaotic and hummocky terrains, and within a small depression in the adjacent plateau. The data imply that at least some of the LLO material was deposited long before the adjacent Hesperian plateau basalts, and that Juventae Chasma underwent, and may still be undergoing, enlargement along its west wall due to wall rock collapse, chaotic terrain evolution, and exposure and removal of LLO material. The new data allow us to reassess possible origins of the LLOs. Gypsum, one of the minerals reported elsewhere as found in Juventae Chasma LLO material, forms only at low temperatures () and thus excludes a volcanic origin. Instead, the data are consistent with either multiple occurrences of lacustrine or airfall deposition over an extended period of time prior to emplacement of Hesperian lava flows on the plateau above the chasm.     

A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe

Regional or local scale hydrological impact studies require high resolution climate change scenarios which should incorporate some assessment of uncertainties in future climate projections. This paper describes a method used to produce a multi-model ensemble of multivariate weather simulations including spatial–temporal rainfall scenarios and single-site temperature and potential evapotranspiration scenarios for hydrological impact assessment in the Dommel catchment (1,350 km²) in The Netherlands and Belgium. A multi-site stochastic rainfall model combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator have been used for the first time with the change factor approach to downscale projections of change derived from eight Regional Climate Model (RCM) experiments for the SRES A2 emission scenario for the period 2071–2100. For winter, all downscaled scenarios show an increase in mean daily precipitation (catchment average change of +9% to +40%) and typically an increase in the proportion of wet days, while for summer a decrease in mean daily precipitation (−16% to −57%) and proportion of wet days is projected. The range of projected mean temperature is 7.7°C to 9.1°C for winter and 19.9°C to 23.3°C for summer, relative to means for the control period (1961–1990) of 3.8°C and 16.8°C, respectively. Mean annual potential evapotranspiration is projected to increase by between +17% and +36%. The magnitude and seasonal distribution of changes in the downscaled climate change projections are strongly influenced by the General Circulation Model (GCM) providing boundary conditions for the RCM experiments. Therefore, a multi-model ensemble of climate change scenarios based on different RCMs and GCMs provides more robust estimates of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for hydrological impact assessments, at both regional and local scale.     

Influence of soil C, N2O and fuel use on GHG mitigation with no-till adoption

Previous research has demonstrated that soil carbon sequestration through adoption of conservation tillage can be economically profitable depending on the value of a carbon offset in a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions market. However adoption of conservation tillage also influences two other potentially important factors, changes in soil N₂O emissions and CO₂ emissions attributed to changes in fuel use. In this article we evaluate the supply of GHG offsets associated with conservation tillage adoption for corn-soy-hay and wheat-pasture systems of the central United States, taking into account not only the amount of carbon sequestration but also the changes in soil N₂O emission and CO₂ emissions from fuel use in tillage operations. The changes in N₂O emissions are derived from a meta-analysis of published studies, and changes in fuel use are based on USDA data. These are used to estimate changes in global warming potential (GWP) associated with adoption of no-till practices, and the changes in GWP are then used in an economic analysis of the potential supply of GHG offsets from the region. Simulation results demonstrate that taking N₂O emissions into account could result in substantial underestimation of the potential for GHG mitigation in the central U.S. wheat pasture systems, and large over-estimation in the corn-soy-hay systems. Fuel use also has quantitatively important effects, although generally smaller than N₂O. These findings suggest that it is important to incorporate these two effects in estimates of GHG offset potential from agricultural lands, as well as in the design of GHG offset contracts for more complete accounting of the effect that no-till adoption will have on greenhouse gas emissions.     

Neutral hydrogen absorption observations of the central region of NGC 5929

We present 0.15-arcsec (25-pc) resolution MERLIN observations of neutral hydrogen absorption detected towards the nuclear region of the type 2 Seyfert galaxy NGC 5929. Absorption is detected only towards the north-eastern radio component with a column density of (6.5 ± 0.6) × 10²¹ cm⁻². Based on comparison with an HST WFPC2 continuum image, we propose that the absorption is caused by a 1.5-arcsec structure of neutral gas and dust offset 0.3 arcsec south-east of the nucleus and running NE–SW. A separate cloud of dust is apparent 1.5 arcsec to the south-west of the nucleus in the HST image. A comparison of the centroid velocity (2358 ± 5 km s⁻¹) and full width at half-maximum (43 ± 6 km s⁻¹) of the absorbing gas with previous [O  III ] observations suggests that both the neutral and ionized gas are undergoing galactic rotation towards the observer in the north-east and away from the observer in the south-west. The main structure is consistent with an inclined ring of gas and dust encircling the active galactic nucleus (AGN); alternatively it may be a bar or inner spiral arm. We do not detect neutral hydrogen absorption or dust obscuration against the radio nucleus (column density < 3.1 × 10²¹ cm⁻²) expected by a torus of neutral gas and dust in unified models of AGNs for a type 2 Seyfert galaxy.     

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution

Illness and mortality related to heat and worsening air quality are core public health concerns associated with climate change projections. We examined the historical relationship between age- and cause-specific mortality rates from 1980 through 2006 and heat events at the 99th percentile of humidex values in the historic period from January 1, 1970 to December 31, 2006 in the greater Seattle area (King, Pierce and Snohomish counties), Spokane County, the Tri-Cities (Benton and Franklin counties) and Yakima County; the relative risks of mortality during heat events were applied to population and climate projections for Washington State to calculate number of deaths above the baseline (1980–2006) expected during projected heat events in 2025, 2045 and 2085. Three different warming scenarios were used in the analysis. Relative risks for the greater Seattle area showed a significant dose-response relationship between heat event duration and daily mortality rates for non-traumatic deaths for persons ages 45 and above, typically peaking at four days of exposure to humidex values above the 99th percentile. The largest number of projected excess deaths in all years and scenarios for the Seattle region was found for age 65 and above. Under the middle warming scenario, this age group is expected to have 96, 148 and 266 excess deaths from all non-traumatic causes in 2025, 2045 and 2085, respectively. We also examined projected excess deaths due to ground-level ozone concentrations at mid century (2045–2054) in King and Spokane counties. Current (1997–2006) ozone measurements and mid-twenty-first century ozone projections were coupled with dose-response data from the scientific literature to produce estimates overall and cardiopulmonary mortality. Daily maximum 8-h ozone concentrations are forecasted to be 16–28% higher in the mid twenty-first century compared to the recent decade of 1997–2006. By mid-century in King County the non-traumatic mortality rate related to ozone was projected to increase from baseline (0.026 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval 0.013–0.038) to 0.033 (95% CI 0.017–0.049). For the same health outcome in Spokane County, the baseline period rate of 0.058 (95% CI 0.030–0.085) was estimated increase to 0.068 (95% CI 0.035–0.100) by mid-century. The cardiopulmonary death rate per 100,000 due to ozone was estimated to increase from 0.011 (95% CI 0.005–0.017) to 0.015 (0.007–0.022) in King County, and from 0.027 (95% CI 0.013–0.042) to 0.032 (95% CI 0.015–0.049) in Spokane County. Public health interventions aimed at protecting Washington’s population from excessive heat and increased ozone concentrations will become increasingly important for preventing deaths, especially among older adults. Furthermore, heat and air quality related illnesses that do not result in death, but are serious nevertheless, may be reduced by the same measures.     

Impacts of recent climate change on wheat production systems in Western Australia

The wheatbelt of Western Australia shows a distinct Mediterranean climate with most of the rainfall occurring in the winter months. The main factor limiting plant production in this region is rainfall. Due to clearing of native vegetation, dryland salinity is a major problem in south-west Australia. Since the mid 1970s the region has experienced a significant decrease in winter rainfall. Across nine sites, growing season rainfall (May to October) decreased by an average of 11% and the sum of rainfall in June and July (June + July) decreased by 20%. We used the ASPIM-Nwheat model in combination with historic climate data to study the impact of recent climate change on the hydrology and production of wheat based farming systems by comparing results for before and after 1975. Despite the large decline in rainfall, simulated yields based on the actual weather data did not fall. At the same time, simulated drainage decreased by up to 95% which will significantly reduce the spread of dryland salinity. These results were due to the rainfall changes mainly occurring in June and July, a period when rainfall often exceeds crop demand and large amounts of water are usually lost by deep drainage. The findings will have significant implications for estimates of future climate change impacts in this region with changes in rainfall causing non-proportional impacts on production and hydrological aspects, such as deep drainage and waterlogging, where proportionality is often presumed.     

Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change

The integrated assessment models (IAMs) that economists use to analyze the expected costs and benefits of climate policies frequently suggest that the “optimal” policy is to go slowly and to do relatively little in the near term to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We trace this finding to the contestable assumptions and limitations of IAMs. For example, they typically discount future impacts from climate change at relatively high rates. This practice may be appropriate for short-term financial decisions but its extension to intergenerational environmental issues rests on several empirically and philosophically controversial hypotheses. IAMs also assign monetary values to the benefits of climate mitigation on the basis of incomplete information and sometimes speculative judgments concerning the monetary worth of human lives and ecosystems, while downplaying scientific uncertainty about the extent of expected damages. In addition, IAMs may exaggerate mitigation costs by failing to reflect the socially determined, path-dependent nature of technical change and ignoring the potential savings from reduced energy utilization and other opportunities for innovation. A better approach to climate policy, drawing on recent research on the economics of uncertainty, would reframe the problem as buying insurance against catastrophic, low-probability events. Policy decisions should be based on a judgment concerning the maximum tolerable increase in temperature and/or carbon dioxide levels given the state of scientific understanding. The appropriate role for economists would then be to determine the least-cost global strategy to achieve that target. While this remains a demanding and complex problem, it is far more tractable and epistemically defensible than the cost-benefit comparisons attempted by most IAMs.     

Linking the Chassigny meteorite and the Martian surface rock Backstay: Insights into igneous crustal differentiation processes on Mars

Abstract— In order to use igneous surface lithologies to constrain Martian mantle characteristics, secondary processes that lead to compositional modification of primary mantle melts must be considered. Crystal fractionation of a mantle‐derived magma at the base of the crust followed by separation and ascent of residual liquids to the surface is common in continental hotspot regions on Earth. The possibility that this process also takes place on Mars was investigated by experimentally determining whether a surface rock, specifically the hawaiite Backstay analyzed by the MER Spirit could produce a known cumulate lithology with a deep origin (namely the assemblages of the Chassigny meteorite) if trapped at the base of the Martian crust. Both the major cumulus and melt inclusion mineral assemblages of the Chassigny meteorite were produced experimentally by a liquid of Backstay composition within the pressure range 9.3 to 6.8 kbar with bulk water contents between 1.5 and 2.6 wt%. Experiments at 4.3 and 2.8 kbar did not produce the requisite assemblages. This agreement suggests that just as on Earth, Martian mantle‐derived melts may rise to the surface or remain trapped at the base of the crust, fractionate, and lose their residual liquids. Efficient removal of these residual liquids at depth would yield a deep low‐silica cumulate layer for higher magmatic water content; at lower magmatic water content this cumulate layer would be basaltic with shergottitic affinity.