Improving the valuation of groundwater

Hydrogeology Journal - An overview of groundwater economics is presented, highlighting the factors contributing to serious resource undervaluation, which is an aspect of resource management that...     

Under the surface: Pressure-induced planetary-scale waves,volcanic lightning,and gaseous clouds caused by the submarine eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano

We present a narrative of the eruptive events culminating in the cataclysmic January 15, 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano by synthesizing diverse preliminary seismic, volcanological, sound wave, and lightning data available within the first few weeks after the eruption occurred. The first hour of eruptive activity produced fast-propagating tsunami waves, long-period seismic waves, loud audible sound waves, infrasonic waves, exceptionally intense volcanic lightning and an unsteady volcanic plume that transiently reached—at 58 ?km—the Earth's mesosphere. Energetic seismic signals were recorded worldwide and the globally stacked seismogram showed episodic seismic events within the most intense periods of phreatoplinian activity, and they correlated well with the infrasound pressure waveform recorded in Fiji. Gravity wave signals were strong enough to be observed over the entire planet in just the first few hours, with some circling the Earth multiple times subsequently. These large-amplitude, long-wavelength atmospheric disturbances come from the Earth's atmosphere being forced by the magmatic mixture of tephra, melt and gasses emitted by the unsteady but quasi-continuous eruption from 0402±1–1800 UTC on January 15, 2022. Atmospheric forcing lasted much longer than rupturing from large earthquakes recorded on modern instruments, producing a type of shock wave that originated from the interaction between compressed air and ambient (wavy) sea surface. This scenario differs from conventional ideas of earthquake slip, landslides, or caldera collapse-generated tsunami waves because of the enormous (～1000x) volumetric change due to the supercritical nature of volatiles associated with the hot, volatile-rich phreatoplinian plume. The time series of plume altitude can be translated to volumetric discharge and mass flow rate. For an eruption duration of ～12 ?h, the eruptive volume and mass are estimated at 1.9 ?km³ and ～2 900 ?Tg, respectively, corresponding to a VEI of 5–6 for this event. The high frequency and intensity of lightning was enhanced by the production of fine ash due to magma—seawater interaction with concomitant high charge per unit mass and the high pre-eruptive concentration of dissolved volatiles. Analysis of lightning flash frequencies provides a rapid metric for plume activity and eruption magnitude. Many aspects of this eruption await further investigation by multidisciplinary teams. It represents a unique opportunity for fundamental research regarding the complex, non-linear behavior of high energetic volcanic eruptions and attendant phenomena, with critical implications for hazard mitigation, volcano forecasting, and first-response efforts in future disasters.     

SMART‐1 end of life shallow regolith impact simulations

The SMART‐1 end‐of‐life impact with the lunar surface was simulated with impacts in a two stage light‐gas gun onto inclined basalt targets with a shallow surface layer of sand. This simulated the probable impact site, where a loose regolith will have overlaid a well consolidated basaltic layer of rock. The impact angles used were at 5° and 10° from the horizontal. The impact speed was ~2 km s^?1 and the projectiles were 2.03 mm diameter aluminum spheres. The sand depth was between approximately 0.8 and 1.8 times the projectile diameter, implying a loose lunar surface regolith of similar dimensions to the SMART‐1 spacecraft. A crater in the basement rock itself was only observed in the impact at 10° incidence, and where the depth of loose surface material was less than the projectile diameter, in which case the basement rock also contained a small pit‐like crater. In all cases, the projectile ricocheted away from the impact site at a shallow angle. This implies that at the SMART‐1 impact site the crater will have a complicated structure, with exposed basement rock and some excavated rock displaced nearby, and the main spacecraft body itself will not be present at the main crater.     

Global distribution of the intensity and frequency of hourly precipitation and their responses to ENSO

Climate Dynamics - We investigate the global distribution of hourly precipitation and its connections with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using both satellite precipitation...     

Impact of climate warming on upper layer of the Bering Sea

The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO₂ at a rate of 1% per year until CO₂ reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2°C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1°C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO₂ doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf.     

Influences of local weather, large-scale climatic drivers, and the ca. 11 year solar cycle on lake ice breakup dates; 1905–2004

We investigate the temporal patterns in inter-annual variability in ice breakup dates for Lakes Mendota and Monona, Wisconsin, between 1905 and 2004. We analyze the contributions of long-term trends attributed to climate change, local weather, indices of sunspots, and large-scale climatic drivers, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niňo Southern Ocean Index (ENSO) on time series of lake-ice breakup. The relative importance of the aforementioned explanatory variables was assessed using linear regression and variation partitioning models accounting for cyclic temporal dynamics as represented by Moran Eigenvector Maps (MEM). Model results explain an average of 58 % of the variation in ice breakup dates. A combination of the long-term linear trends, rain and snowfall in the month prior to breakup, air temperature in the winter prior to breakup, cyclic dynamics associated with sunspot numbers, ENSO, and for Lake Mendota, NAO, all significantly influence the timing of ice breakup. Significant cycle lengths were 3.5, 9, 11, and 50 years. Despite their proximity, Lakes Mendota and Monona exhibit differences in how and which explanatory variables were incorporated into the models. Our results indicate that lake ice dynamics are complex in both lakes and multiple interacting processes explain the residuals around the linear warming trends that characterize lake ice records.     

Uncertainty, ignorance and ambiguity in crop modelling for African agricultural adaptation

Drawing on social constructivist approaches to interpreting the generation of knowledge, particularly Stirling’s (Local Environ 4(2):111–135, 1999) schema of incomplete knowledge, this paper looks critically at climate-crop modelling, a research discipline of growing importance within African agricultural adaptation policy. A combination of interviews with climate and crop modellers, a meta-analysis survey of crop modelling conducted as part of the CGIAR’s Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) programme in 2010, and peer-reviewed crop and climate modelling literature are analysed. Using case studies from across the crop model production chain as illustrations it is argued that, whilst increases in investment and growth of the modelling endeavour are undoubtedly improving observational data and reducing ignorance, the future of agriculture remains uncertain and ambiguous. The expansion of methodological options, assumptions about system dynamics, and divergence in model outcomes is increasing the space and need for more deliberative approaches to modelling and policy making. Participatory and deliberative approaches to science-policy are advanced in response. The discussion highlights the problem that, uncertainty and ambiguity become hidden within the growing complexity of conventional climate and crop modelling science, as such, achieving the transparency and accessibility required to democratise climate impact assessments represents a significant challenge. Suggestions are made about how these challenges might be responded to within the climate-crop modelling community.