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71.
72.
Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
The last decade has produced record-breaking heat waves in many parts of the world. At the same time, it was globally the warmest since sufficient measurements started in the 19th century. Here we show that, worldwide, the number of local record-breaking monthly temperature extremes is now on average five times larger than expected in a climate with no long-term warming. This implies that on average there is an 80 % chance that a new monthly heat record is due to climatic change. Large regional differences exist in the number of observed records. Summertime records, which are associated with prolonged heat waves, increased by more than a factor of ten in some continental regions including parts of Europe, Africa, southern Asia and Amazonia. Overall, these high record numbers are quantitatively consistent with those expected for the observed climatic warming trend with added stationary white noise. In addition, we find that the observed records cluster both in space and in time. Strong El Niño years see additional records superimposed on the expected long-term rise. Under a medium global warming scenario, by the 2040s we predict the number of monthly heat records globally to be more than 12 times as high as in a climate with no long-term warming. 相似文献
73.
Christoph Butscher Adrian Auckenthaler Stefan Scheidler Peter Huggenberger 《Ground water》2011,49(1):66-76
Rapid changes in spring water quality in karst areas due to rapid recharge of bacterially contaminated water are a major concern for drinking water suppliers and users. The main objective of this study was to use field experiments with fecal indicators to verify the vulnerability of a karst spring to pathogens, as determined by using a numerical modeling approach. The groundwater modeling was based on linear storage models that can be used to simulate karst water flow. The vulnerability of the karst groundwater is estimated using such models to calculate criteria that influence the likelihood of spring water being affected by microbial contamination. Specifically, the temporal variation in the vulnerability, depending on rainfall events and overall recharge conditions, can be assessed and quantified using the dynamic vulnerability index (DVI). DVI corresponds to the ratio of conduit to diffuse flow contributions to spring discharge. To evaluate model performance with respect to predicted vulnerability, samples from a spring were analyzed for Escherichia coli, enterococci, Clostridium perfringens, and heterotrophic plate count bacteria during and after several rainfall events. DVI was shown to be an indication of the risk of fecal contamination of spring water with sufficient accuracy to be used in drinking water management. We conclude that numerical models are a useful tool for evaluating the vulnerability of karst systems to pathogens under varying recharge conditions 相似文献
74.
Stefan Bernstein Peter B Kelemen Christian Tegner Mark D Kurz Jurek Blusztajn C.Kent Brooks 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1998,160(3-4):845-862
Mafic and ultramafic intrusions in East Greenland adjacent to the offshore Greenland–Iceland ridge were emplaced 5–9 My after continental breakup at 55 Ma [1]. Rare earth element (REE) concentrations determined by secondary ion mass spectrometry are reported for cumulus clinopyroxene from these intrusions, and the data are used to estimate REE abundance in equilibrium melts using available partitioning data. Estimated equilibrium melts from intrusions have strongly fractionated REE patterns with Nd/Dy(N) in the range 2 to 5.6 and Yb/Dy(N) 0.55 to 0.92, similar to values for coeval basalts. These melts have markedly higher Nd/Dy(N) than earlier breakup related flood basalts. The moderately low Yb/Dy(N) for the post-breakup volcanism is indicative of residual garnet in the source, while their high Nd/Dy(N) ratios can best be explained by aggregating low degree melts from a light-REE-enriched garnet- and spinel-bearing mantle source. We also report He, Sr, and Nd isotopic data for the intrusions. The highest 3He/4He ratios (>10 R/Ra) are found in the samples whose REE data reflect the largest proportion of melts from a garnet-bearing source, and having Sr and Nd isotopic compositions identical with the radiogenic Sr and unradiogenic Nd isotope end of the Iceland compositional field. There is no indication of a MORB-type mantle in the source of the intrusions. We postulate that post-breakup volcanism along the East Greenland coastline reflects the increasing proximity of the mantle plume to the East Greenland continental margin. The low degree of melting at high mean pressure inferred for the parental melts for the intrusions may reflect re-thickening of the lithosphere, which in turn was caused by the vigorous volcanism during breakup, with accompanying depletion of upper mantle and underplating of the crust at the continental margin. 相似文献
75.
A new approach is proposed to obtain quantitative temperature reconstructions from Early and Middle Pleistocene pollen and megafloral records. Utilizing the indicator species concept pioneered by Iversen (1944, Geologiska Föreningen Förhandlingar Stockholm 66, 463–483), the new methodology overcomes the problem of non-analogue plant communities by only taking into account the presence/absence of taxa rather than their relative abundances. Based on the present day thermal tolerances of the taxa from a fossil assemblage, the temperature interval in which all taxa from this assemblage can coexist is determined. A databank containing the climate tolerances of 85 taxa from European pollen records was established. To increase the temperature resolution of the method, procedures were developed to assess the most likely intervals for the actual temperatures within the calculated common thermospheres and the routine evaluation of the mean temperatures of the warmest and coldest months (MTW and MTC). After calibrating the approach on modern assemblages, it was applied to Tiglian and Holsteinian pollen sequences from Lieth (northern Germany) and Lac du Bourget (northern French Alps). For both records the method yields detailed temperature reconstructions of temperate and cold episodes. During the coldest episode of the Lieth section, the MTC may have been as low as −16°C. Corresponding MTW values range from 14.5 to 21°C, thus testifying to a strong continentality at that time. During the warmest period reconstructed for the Lieth section, the MTC was similar to the value as measured in the area today (1.5°C), whereas the MTW was probably higher than at present (20.1°C). For the coldest interval from the Lac du Bourget pollen sequence, the reconstructed MTC values reach a minimum of −15°C. Corresponding MTW values range from 15 to 22°C, again implying a strong continentality. For the warmest period our approach yields MTC values between −2 and 2°C and MTW values between 16.5 and 22°C. For both records, the resolution for the MTW and MTC reaches 1.5 and 2.5°C, respectively. 相似文献
76.
On characterizing the temporal dominance patterns of model parameters and processes 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1 下载免费PDF全文
Björn Guse Matthias Pfannerstill Michael Strauch Dominik E. Reusser Stefan Lüdtke Martin Volk Hoshin Gupta Nicola Fohrer 《水文研究》2016,30(13):2255-2270
Diagnostic analyses of hydrological models intend to improve the understanding of how processes and their dynamics are represented in models. Temporal patterns of parameter dominance could be precisely characterized with a temporally resolved parameter sensitivity analysis. In this way, the discharge conditions are characterized, that lead to a parameter dominance in the model. To achieve this, the analysis of temporal dynamics in parameter sensitivity is enhanced by including additional information in a three‐tiered framework on different aggregation levels. Firstly, temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity provide daily time series of their sensitivities to detect variations in the dominance of model parameters. Secondly, the daily sensitivities are related to the flow duration curve (FDC) to emphasize high sensitivities of model parameters in relation to specific discharge magnitudes. Thirdly, parameter sensitivities are monthly averaged separately for five segments of the FDC to detect typical patterns of parameter dominances for different discharge magnitudes. The three methodical steps are applied on two contrasting catchments (upland and lowland catchment) to demonstrate how the temporal patterns of parameter dynamics represent different hydrological regimes. The discharge dynamic in the lowland catchment is controlled by groundwater parameters for all discharge magnitudes. In contrast, different processes are relevant in the upland catchment, because the dominances of parameters from fast and slow runoff components in the upland catchment are changing over the year for the different discharge magnitudes. The joined interpretation of these three diagnostic steps provides deeper insights of how model parameters represent hydrological dynamics in models for different discharge magnitudes. Thus, this diagnostic framework leads to a better characterization of model parameters and their temporal dynamics and helps to understand the process behaviour in hydrological models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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78.
79.
Exploring the climate problems of Brazil’s Nordeste: a review 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Stefan Hastenrath 《Climatic change》2012,112(2):243-251
This article reviews the exploration of the climate dynamics of Brazil’s Nordeste in the course of a century. The drought-prone and semi-arid northern Nordeste of Brazil experiences a short rainy season around March–April, when the interhemispheric gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic is weakest and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) reaches its southernmost position in the course of the annual cycle. The recurrent Secas (droughts) have a severe socio-economic impact. During drought years, the interhemispheric SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic is steep and the ITCZ stays far North, while the waters of the eastern equatorial Pacific tend to be anomalously warm. Based on the extensive diagnostic exploration of the circulation mechanisms of interannual climate variability, empirical methods have been developed for the forecasting of the Nordeste rainy season. These have been applied in the real-time prediction of seasonal rainfall anomalies throughout the last decade of the 20th century. 相似文献
80.
The objective of the study is to detect geographical and temporal variations of near surface air temperatures over Minnesota and Wisconsin, USA derived from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. In addition, the study serves to assess the usefulness of NARR temperature data to analyze regional and local temperature variations. Particular emphasis was placed on the analyses on the temperature-modifying effects of the Great Lakes and large urban environments. We analyzed annual mean, daily maximum and minimum, and January minimum and July maximum temperatures for the period 1979–2006 by using methods such as ordinary kriging, principal component analysis, and the Mann–Kendall test. On a regional scale, we found significant effects of the latitude and the Great Lakes on the spatial variability of the data. Furthermore, we found clearly identifiable effects of large urban areas in the study region (Minneapolis—Saint Paul and Milwaukee), which are more evident in the principal component scores than in the temperature data themselves. While we failed to detect significant July maximum temperature trends, we detected significantly increasing trends in January minimum and mean annual temperature datasets in the eastern part of the region. Overall, the present study has demonstrated the potential of using NARR data for urban climate research. 相似文献