The impact of uncertain emission trading markets on interactive resource planning processes and international emission trading experiments

Interactive resource planning is an increasingly important aspect of emission trading markets. The conferences of Rio de Janeiro, 1992, and Kyoto, 1997, originally focusing on environmental protection at both macro- and micro-economic levels, called for new economic instruments of this kind. An important economic tool in this area is Joint Implementation (JI), defined in Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol. Sustainable development can be guaranteed only if JI is embedded in optimal energy management. In this contribution we describe and evaluate one international procedure within uncertain markets which helps to establish optimal energy management and interactive resource planning processes within uncertain emission trading markets.     

Assessing anthropogenic impacts on limited water resources under semi-arid conditions: three-dimensional transient regional modelling in Jordan

Both increasing aridity and population growth strongly stress freshwater resources in semi-arid areas such as Jordan. The country’s second largest governorate, Irbid, with over 1 million inhabitants, is already suffering from an annual water deficit of 25 million cubic meters (MCM). The population is expected to double within the next 20 years. Even without the large number of refugees from Syria, the deficit will likely increase to more then 50 MCM per year by 2035 The Governorate’s exclusive resource is groundwater, abstracted by the extensive Al Arab and Kufr Asad well fields. This study presents the first three-dimensional transient regional groundwater flow model of the entire Wadi al Arab to answer important questions regarding the dynamic quality and availability of water within the catchment. Emphasis is given to the calculation and validation of the dynamic groundwater recharge, derived from a multi-proxy approach, including (1) a hydrological model covering a 30-years dataset, (2) groundwater level measurements and (3) information about springs. The model enables evaluation of the impact of abstraction on the flow regime and the groundwater budget of the resource. Sensitivity analyses of controlling parameters indicate that intense abstraction in the southern part of the Wadi al Arab system can result in critical water-level drops of 10 m at a distance of 16 km from the production wells. Moreover, modelling results suggest that observed head fluctuations are strongly controlled by anthropogenic abstraction rather than variable recharge rates due to climate changes.     

Kinematic analysis and analogue modelling of the Passeier- and Jaufen faults: implications for crustal indentation in the Eastern Alps

Crustal deformation in front of an indenter is often affected by the indenter’s geometry, rheology, and motion path. In this context, the kinematics of the Jaufen- and Passeier faults have been studied by carrying out paleostress analysis in combination with crustal-scale analogue modelling to infer (1) their relationship during indentation of the Adriatic plate and (2) their sensitivity in terms of fault kinematics to the geometry and motion path of Adria. The field study reveals mylonites along the Jaufen fault, which formed under lower greenschist facies conditions and is associated with top-to-the-west/northwest shear with a northern block down component. In addition, a brittle reactivation of the Jaufen shear zone under NNW–SSE to NW–SE compressional and ENE–WSW tensional stress conditions was deduced from paleostress analysis. The inferred shortening direction is consistent with fission track ages portraying Neogene exhumation of the Meran-Mauls basement south of the fault. Along the Passeier fault, deformation was only brittle to semi-ductile and paleostress tensors record that the fault was subjected to E–W extension along its northern segment varying into NW–SE compression and sinistral transpression along its southern segment. In the performed analogue experiments, a rigid, triangular shaped indenter was pushed into a sand pile resulting in the formation of a Passeier-like fault sprouting from the indenter’s tip. These kinds of north-trending tip faults formed in all experiments with shortening directions towards the NW, N, or NE. Consequently, we argue that the formation of the Passeier fault strongly corresponds to the outline of the Adriatic indenter and was only little affected by the indenter’s motion path due to induced strain partitioning in front of the different indenter segments. The associated fault kinematics along the Passeier fault including both E–W extension and NNW to NW shortening, however, is most consistent with a northward advancing Adriatic indenter.     

3-D assessment of peak-metamorphic conditions by Raman spectroscopy of carbonaceous material: an example from the margin of the Lepontine dome (Swiss Central Alps)

This study monitors regional changes in the crystallinity of carbonaceous matter (CM) by applying Micro-Raman spectroscopy to a total of 214 metasediment samples (largely so-called Bündnerschiefer) dominantly metamorphosed under blueschist- to amphibolite-facies conditions. They were collected within the northeastern margin of the Lepontine dome and easterly adjacent areas of the Swiss Central Alps. Three-dimensional mapping of isotemperature contours in map and profile views shows that the isotemperature contours associated with the Miocene Barrow-type Lepontine metamorphic event cut across refolded nappe contacts, both along and across strike within the northeastern margin of the Lepontine dome and adjacent areas. Further to the northeast, the isotemperature contours reflect temperatures reached during the Late Eocene subduction-related blueschist-facies event and/or during subsequent near-isothermal decompression; these contours appear folded by younger, large-scale post-nappe-stacking folds. A substantial jump in the recorded maximum temperatures across the tectonic contact between the frontal Adula nappe complex and surrounding metasediments indicates that this contact accommodated differential tectonic movement of the Adula nappe with respect to the enveloping Bündnerschiefer after maximum temperatures were reached within the northern Adula nappe, i.e. after Late Eocene time.     

Textural segmentation of digital rock images into bedding units using texture energy and cluster labels

The texture of digital rock images, as recorded, for instance, with borehole imaging devices, is shown to reflect different bedding types. Textural segmentation of borehole images, therefore, subdivides the recorded sequence into bedding units. We show that a textural segmentation algorithm based on the concept of texture energy achieves good results when compared with synthetic as well as real data in which petroleum geologists have performed zonations on cores. Texture energy involves filtering of the original image with a set of texture sensitive masks. The filtering is done as a finite convolution over the size of the masks. On the resulting images the variance is computed over a relatively large sliding window, which, in its practical implementation, covers the full width of the image. The resulting nine one-dimensional curves are then clustered hierarchically into a user-determined number of image texture or lithological bedding classes. Principal component analysis previous to clustering can be used to reduce redundancy in the data. A recurring and relatively ill-defined problem in this field are macro-textures, i.e., the cyclic interbedding of two or more bedding types. We show that sliding Fourier transforms and variable mask scale can successfully address the zonation of macro-textures. In general, the method gives best results with mask sizes equivalent to 2–4 centimeters, reflecting the length scale at which the investigated geological bedding seems to have its highest variation.     

Effect of melt composition on the partitioning of trace elements between titanite and silicate melt

Isobaric and isothermal experiments were performed to investigate the effect of melt composition on the partitioning of trace elements between titanite (CaTiSiO₅) and a range of different silicate melts. Titanite-melt partition coefficients for 18 trace elements were determined by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) analyses of experimental run products. The partition coefficients for the rare earth elements and for Th, Nb, and Ta reveal a strong influence of melt composition on partition coefficients, whereas partition coefficients for other studied monovalent, divalent and most quadrivalent (i.e., Zr, Hf) cations are not significantly affected by melt composition. The present data show that the influence of melt composition may not be neglected when modelling trace element partitioning.It is argued that it is mainly the change of coordination number and the regularity of the coordination space of trace elements in the melt structure that controls partition coefficients in our experiments. Furthermore, our data also show that the substitution mechanism by which trace elements are incorporated into titanite crystals may be of additional importance in this context.     

Lower crustal melting and the role of open-system processes in the genesis of syn-orogenic quartz diorite–granite–leucogranite associations: constraints from Sr–Nd–O isotopes from the Bandombaai Complex, Namibia

The Bandombaai Complex (southern Kaoko Belt, Namibia) consists of three main intrusive rock types including metaluminous hornblende- and sphene-bearing quartz diorites, allanite-bearing granodiorites and granites, and peraluminous garnet- and muscovite-bearing leucogranites. Intrusion of the quartz diorites is constrained by a U–Pb zircon age of 540±3 Ma.

Quartz diorites, granodiorites and granites display heterogeneous initial Nd- and O isotope compositions (_{Nd (540 Ma)}=−6.3 to −19.8; δ¹⁸O=9.0–11.6‰) but rather low and uniform initial Sr isotope compositions (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_initial=0.70794–0.70982). Two leucogranites and one aplite have higher initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.70828–0.71559), but similar initial _Nd (−11.9 to −15.8) and oxygen isotope values (10.5–12.9‰). The geochemical and isotopic characteristics of the Bandombaai Complex are distinct from other granitoids of the Kaoko Belt and the Central Zone of the Damara orogen. Our study suggests that the quartz diorites of the Bandombaai Complex are generated by melting of heterogeneous mafic lower crust. Based on a comparison with results from amphibolite-dehydration melting experiments, a lower crustal garnet- and amphibole-bearing metabasalt, probably enriched in K₂O, is a likely source rock for the quartz diorites. The granodiorites/granites show low Rb/Sr (<0.6) ratios and are probably generated by partial melting of meta-igneous (intermediate) lower crustal sources by amphibole-dehydration melting. Most of the leucogranites display higher Rb/Sr ratios (>1) and are most likely generated by biotite-dehydration melting of heterogeneous felsic lower crust. All segments of the lower crust underwent partial melting during the Pan-African orogeny at a time (540 Ma) when the middle crust of the central Damara orogen also underwent high T, medium P regional metamorphism and melting. Geochemical and isotope data from the Bandombaai Complex suggest that the Pan-African orogeny in this part of the orogen was not a major crust-forming episode. Instead, even the most primitive rock types of the region, the quartz diorites, represent recycled lower crustal material.     

Reconstructing palaeotemperatures for the Early and Middle Pleistocene using the mutual climatic range method based on plant fossils

A new approach is proposed to obtain quantitative temperature reconstructions from Early and Middle Pleistocene pollen and megafloral records. Utilizing the indicator species concept pioneered by Iversen (1944, Geologiska Föreningen Förhandlingar Stockholm 66, 463–483), the new methodology overcomes the problem of non-analogue plant communities by only taking into account the presence/absence of taxa rather than their relative abundances. Based on the present day thermal tolerances of the taxa from a fossil assemblage, the temperature interval in which all taxa from this assemblage can coexist is determined. A databank containing the climate tolerances of 85 taxa from European pollen records was established. To increase the temperature resolution of the method, procedures were developed to assess the most likely intervals for the actual temperatures within the calculated common thermospheres and the routine evaluation of the mean temperatures of the warmest and coldest months (MTW and MTC). After calibrating the approach on modern assemblages, it was applied to Tiglian and Holsteinian pollen sequences from Lieth (northern Germany) and Lac du Bourget (northern French Alps). For both records the method yields detailed temperature reconstructions of temperate and cold episodes. During the coldest episode of the Lieth section, the MTC may have been as low as −16°C. Corresponding MTW values range from 14.5 to 21°C, thus testifying to a strong continentality at that time. During the warmest period reconstructed for the Lieth section, the MTC was similar to the value as measured in the area today (1.5°C), whereas the MTW was probably higher than at present (20.1°C). For the coldest interval from the Lac du Bourget pollen sequence, the reconstructed MTC values reach a minimum of −15°C. Corresponding MTW values range from 15 to 22°C, again implying a strong continentality. For the warmest period our approach yields MTC values between −2 and 2°C and MTW values between 16.5 and 22°C. For both records, the resolution for the MTW and MTC reaches 1.5 and 2.5°C, respectively.