Simulated changes in vegetation distribution, land carbon storage, and atmospheric CO2 in response to a collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation

It is investigated how abrupt changes in the North Atlantic (NA) thermohaline circulation (THC) affect the terrestrial carbon cycle. The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is forced with climate perturbations from glacial freshwater experiments with the ECBILT-CLIO ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model. A reorganisation of the marine carbon cycle is not addressed. Modelled NA THC collapses and recovers after about a millennium in response to prescribed freshwater forcing. The initial cooling of several Kelvin over Eurasia causes a reduction of extant boreal and temperate forests and a decrease in carbon storage in high northern latitudes, whereas improved growing conditions and slower soil decomposition rates lead to enhanced storage in mid-latitudes. The magnitude and evolution of global terrestrial carbon storage in response to abrupt THC changes depends sensitively on the initial climate conditions. These were varied using results from time slice simulations with the Hadley Centre model HadSM3 for different periods over the past 21 kyr. Changes in terrestrial storage vary between −67 and +50 PgC for the range of experiments with different initial conditions. Simulated peak-to-peak differences in atmospheric CO₂ are 6 and 13 ppmv for glacial and late Holocene conditions. Simulated changes in δ¹³C are between 0.15 and 0.25‰. These simulated carbon storage anomalies during a NA THC collapse depend on their magnitude on the CO₂ fertilisation feedback mechanism. The CO₂ changes simulated for glacial conditions are compatible with available evidence from marine studies and the ice core CO₂ record. The latter shows multi-millennial CO₂ variations of up to 20 ppmv broadly in parallel with the Antarctic warm events A1 to A4 in the South and cooling in the North.     

Uncertainties in Predicting Tourist Flows Under Scenarios of Climate Change

Tourism is largely dependent on climatic and natural resources. For example, “warmer'' climates generally constitute preferred environments for recreation and leisure, and natural resources such as fresh water, biodiversity, beaches or landscapes are essential preconditions for tourism. Global environmental change threatens these foundations of tourism through climate change, modifications of global biogeochemical cycles, land alteration, the loss of non-renewable resources, unsustainable use of renewable resources and loss of biodiversity (Gössling and Hall, 2005). This has raised concerns that tourist flows will change to the advantage or disadvantage of destinations, which is of major concern to local and national economies, as tourism is one of the largest economic sectors of the world, and of great importance for many destinations. In consequence, an increasing number of publications have sought to analyse travel flows in relation to climatic and socio-economic parameters (e.g. Lise and Tol, 2001; Maddison, 2001; Christ et al., 2003; Hamilton et al., 2003; Hamilton and Tol, 2004). The ultimate goal has been to develop scenarios for future travel flows, possibly including “most at risk destinations'', both in economic and in environmental terms. Such scenarios are meant to help the tourist industry in planning future operations, and they are of importance in developing plans for adaptation.     

Evaluation of the boundary layer morning transition using the CL-31 ceilometer signals

The morning transition of the atmospheric boundary layer from nighttime to daytime conditions was investigated using the Vaisala’s CL-31 ceilometer, located at Magurele, Romania (44.35°N, 26.03°E). Based on the 5-days backward trajectories, we rejected those measurements which were related to the intrusions of long-range transported particles. In the several discussed cases, which are representative for the morning transition in spring and summer seasons over Magurele, the increasing depth of the boundary layer related to the local aerosol load was well discernible. The dynamic change of its depth was estimated with errors using a simple method based on finding the minimum of the first derivative of the ceilometer signal. In the summer, the increase of the boundary layer depth due to the morning transition from the nighttime to daytime conditions starts on average of about 80 min earlier and the growth rate of this depth is 143 ± 6 m/h and about 37% slower than in the spring case.     

Circulation and teleconnection mechanisms of Northeast Brazil droughts

The Northern Nordeste of Brazil has its short rainy season narrowly concentrated around March–April, when the interhemispheric southward gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) is weakest and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is the main rainbearing system for the Nordeste, reaches its southernmost position in the course of the year. The recurrent Secas (droughts) have a severe socio-economic impact in this semi-arid region. In drought years, the pre-season (October–January) rainfall is scarce, the interhemispheric SST gradient weakened and the basin-wide southerly (northerly) wind component enhanced (reduced), all manifestations of an anomalously far northward ITCZ position. Apart from this ensemble of Atlantic indicators, the Secas also tend to be preceded by anomalously warm equatorial Pacific waters in January. During El Niño years, an upper-tropospheric wave train extends from the equatorial eastern Pacific to the northern tropical Atlantic, affecting the patterns of upper-tropospheric topography and divergence, and hence of vertical motion over the Atlantic. The altered vertical motion leads to a weaker meridional pressure gradient on the equatorward flank of the North Atlantic subtropical high, and thus weaker North Atlantic tradewinds. The concomitant reduction of evaporation and wind stirring allows for warmer surface waters in the tropical North Atlantic and thus steeper interhemispheric meridional thermal gradient. Consequently, the ITCZ stays anomalously far North and the Nordeste rainy season becomes deficient.     

On the relationship between vegetation and climate in tropical and northern Africa

Vegetation cover is a crucial component of the Earth’s climate system but, still, our understanding of the mechanisms governing the reciprocal influence between atmosphere and vegetation is limited. In this study, we investigate the unilateral atmospheric impact on vegetation cover in tropical and northern Africa, differentiated into regions with different circulation regimes and into detailed land-cover classes. In contrast to former studies, climate predictors from a regional climate model are used as input for a multiple regression model. Climate models provide consistent data without gaps at high spatial resolution, a considerably larger set of available climate variables and the perspective to transfer the statistical relationships to future projections, e.g., in the context of anthropogenic climate change. Indeed, robust climate predictors which drive up to 70 % of observed interannual vegetation variability could be extracted from the climate model. Besides precipitation and temperature, global radiation, and relative humidity play an important role. The statistical transfer functions are plausible in terms of the affected regions and land-cover classes and draw a rather complex picture of the atmosphere–vegetation relation in Africa.     

Block and Debris Deposits in the High Drakensberg, Lesotho, Southern Africa: Implications for High Altitude Slope Processes

Past evaluation of high altitude slope development in Lesotho, southern Africa, is largely based on hypothetical or macro-scale geomorphic approaches. Consequently, the information pertaining to high altitude southern African Quaternary slope environments has remained rather rudimentary. The present study describes the morphology and discusses the likely palaeogeomorphic processes of blockstreams and debris deposits on the Popple Peak and Njesuthi-Mafadi south-facing-slopes in the Drakensberg. The geomorphic evidence provides much needed information to help improve the understanding of south-facing slope processes during past colder periods. A model for high altitude Drakensberg south facing slopes is presented and used to challenge and expand on recent models and ideas on southern African valley asymmetry. It is found that solifluction and debris flows/avalanches were operative on south-facing slopes during past cold periods and thereby contributed to past slope development at some high altitude sites in Lesotho. However, the geomorphological observations do not support the valley asymmetry hypothesis and it is suggested that greater caution be exercised in valley-form interpretations, particularly where geomorphological ground-truthing has been absent.     

Nano-mechanical Properties and Pore-Scale Characterization of Different Rank Coals

Characterization of coal micro-structure and the associated rock mechanical properties are of key importance for coal seam exploration, coal bed methane development, enhanced coal bed methane production and CO₂ storage in deep coal seams. Considerable knowledge exists about coal chemical properties, but less is known about the nanoscale to the micro-scale structure of coals and how they change with coal strength across coal ranks. Thus, in this study, 3D X-ray micro-computed tomography (with a voxel size of 3.43 µm) and nano-indentation tests were conducted on coal samples of different ranks from peat to anthracite. The micro-structure of peats showed a well-developed pore system with meso- and micro-pores. The meso-pores essentially disappear with increasing rank, whereas the micro-pores persist and then increase past the bituminous rank. The micro-fracture system develops past the peat stage and by sub-bituminous ranks and changes into larger and mature fracture systems at higher ranks. The nano-indentation modulus showed the increasing trend from low- to high-rank coal with a perfect linear relationship with vitrinite reflectance and is highly correlated with carbon content as expected.

     

Structuring problems in sustainability science: The multi-level DPSIR framework

Sustainability science needs approaches that allow for the integration of knowledge across disciplines and scales. This paper suggests an approach to conceptualize problems of unsustainability by embedding the Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) scheme within a multi-level institutional framework represented by Hägerstrand’s system of nested domains. The proposed taxonomy helps to decipher and to better understand key casual chains and societal responses at the appropriate spatial levels for particular sustainability problem areas. To illustrate the scheme more concretely the example of recent problem-solving efforts for Baltic Sea eutrophication driven by Swedish agriculture is examined. The discussion focuses on how the scheme fulfills the four research strategy requirements within the field of sustainability science and how the scheme is distinct from alternative approaches.     

A reconstructed dynamic Indian monsoon index extended back to 1880

The authors present a reconstruction of summer (June–July–August) mean dynamic Indian monsoon index (DIMI) back to 1880 based on a large number of historical surface observation data as well as information from the upper air data. The reconstruction shows a satisfying skill in terms of both the value of reduction of error and an evaluation against other independent monsoon indices. The skill of reconstruction increases over time with more predictor data (in particular upper-level data) becoming available. A comparison with the observed all Indian summer monsoon rainfall index (AIRI) shows a high consistence in both inter-decadal and inter-annual variability. The reconstruction shows stronger than normal monsoon during the 1880s, 1915–1925 (around 1920) and 1930–1945 (around 1940) as the AIRI. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—monsoon relationship is reasonably captured in the reconstruction. Powers concentrating within quasi-biennial band stand out in the reconstruction as well as in the AIRI. A comparison of the reconstruction against an atmospheric general circulation model simulation with specified SST and external forcing agents spanning 1901–1999 indicates a slightly higher reproducibility of monsoon circulation than monsoon rainfall in terms of interannual variability. The relationship between the Asian continent warming and the ENSO–monsoon connection is also discussed by using the new dynamic index.