Decarbonization and regulation of Germany's electricity system after Fukushima

Germany's current efforts to decarbonize its electricity system are analysed. As nuclear power and fossil power plants equipped with carbon capture and storage were ruled out in 2011, renewable electricity generation (RES) together with electricity savings are the primary focus for achieving decarbonization. Germany aims to have RES account for at least 80% of its electricity by 2050. Achieving renewable generation needs strong political support and regulatory provisions for its market integration. Four main technical and regulatory challenges are the maintenance of a steady and efficient expansion of RES, the provision of balancing capacities, the realization of the targeted electricity savings, and the smart adaptation of the transport and distribution grid. An overview of the existing and planned regulatory provisions for decarbonization are described, and some gaps identified, particularly with regard to the overall management of the process, the inclusion of electricity savings and the interference of Germany's decarbonization strategies with neighbouring countries. Policies that both accelerate grid expansion and direct RES expansion should immediately be put in place and can be supported by a targeted mobilization of balancing capacities. Electricity savings are a significant and cost-efficient strategy for low-carbon electricity.

Policy relevance

Germany is actively converting its national electricity system towards a fully renewable one. As renewable electricity has reached about a quarter of total consumption, a number of technical and regulatory challenges arise. Current discussions and plans are described for the four main challenges: maintaining and optimizing high investment rates into RES generation technologies, providing balancing capacities, reducing demand, and adapting the grid to the changing needs. Policy recommendations for these four tasks highlight the need to intensify electricity demand reduction and also consider the potential interactions between the German electricity system and its neighbouring countries.     

Variability and alterations of water temperatures across the Elbe and Danube River Basins

Climate change is predicted to be a major threat to river ecosystems in the 21st century, but long-term records of water temperature in streams and rivers are rare. This study uses long-term water temperature series from the Elbe and the Danube River Basin to quantify the variability, magnitude, and extent of temperature alterations at different time scales. The observed patterns in monthly and daily water temperatures have been successfully described through statistical models based on air temperature, river discharge and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index. These models reveal that air temperature variability describes more than 80 % of the total water-temperature variability, linking anticipated changes in water temperature mainly to those in air temperature. The North Atlantic Oscillation effect deteriorates with decreasing latitude, while the discharge effect becomes more important and increases with the increase in discharge amount. The detected water temperature alterations include a phase shift in spring warming of almost 2 weeks, an increase in the number of days with temperatures above 25 °C and an increase in the duration of summer heat stress. These findings underline a significant risk for fundamental changes in river ecosystems, specifically in disruption of established patterns in food-web synchrony, and may lead to significant distortions in community structure and composition.     

On the relationship between vegetation and climate in tropical and northern Africa

Vegetation cover is a crucial component of the Earth’s climate system but, still, our understanding of the mechanisms governing the reciprocal influence between atmosphere and vegetation is limited. In this study, we investigate the unilateral atmospheric impact on vegetation cover in tropical and northern Africa, differentiated into regions with different circulation regimes and into detailed land-cover classes. In contrast to former studies, climate predictors from a regional climate model are used as input for a multiple regression model. Climate models provide consistent data without gaps at high spatial resolution, a considerably larger set of available climate variables and the perspective to transfer the statistical relationships to future projections, e.g., in the context of anthropogenic climate change. Indeed, robust climate predictors which drive up to 70 % of observed interannual vegetation variability could be extracted from the climate model. Besides precipitation and temperature, global radiation, and relative humidity play an important role. The statistical transfer functions are plausible in terms of the affected regions and land-cover classes and draw a rather complex picture of the atmosphere–vegetation relation in Africa.     

Large-scale modes impact on Iraq climate variability

The impact of large-scale modes on Iraq climate is investigated here based on winter and spring fields of temperature and precipitation. The temperature data (1971–2010) was recorded at 8 stations whereas the precipitation fields (1981–2010) were recorded at 18 locations. Empirical orthogonal function analyses were performed in order to characterize the spatial variability of the Iraq climatological parameters. The relationships between the global sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and geopotential height fields with the dominant modes of Iraq temperature and precipitation were also investigated. Correlation and regression maps emphasize links between Iraq climate and large-scale modes, like the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon.     

Estimation of Biomass Heat Storage Using Thermal Infrared Imagery: Application to a Walnut Orchard

A new method to estimate tree biomass heat storage from thermal infrared (TIR) imaging of biomass surface temperature is presented. TIR images of the canopy are classified into trunk, branches, and leaves. The one-dimensional heat equation in cylindrical coordinates is forced with trunk and branch surface temperatures to simulate the temperature distribution and heat storage in tree trunks and branches. Assuming uniform leaf temperatures, heat storage in leaves is computed from the surface temperature of the leaves separately for the sunlit upper and shaded lower canopy. The sum of trunk, branches, leaf, and air heat storage gives the canopy heat storage. Measurements in a walnut orchard near Davis, California, in early June 2007 showed that biomass heat storage was of the same order as air heat storage and about 1% of daytime and 9% of nighttime net radiation.     

Isotope Geochemistry of the Pb-Zn-Ba(-Ag-Au) Mineralization at Triades-Galana,Milos Island,Greece

The Pb-Zn-Ba(-Ag-Au) mineralization in the Triades and Galana mine areas is hosted in 2.5–1.4 Ma pyroclastic rocks, and structurally controlled mostly by NE-SW or N-S trending brittle faults. Proximal pervasive silica and distal pervasive sericite-illite alteration are the two main alteration types present at the surface. The distribution of mineralization-alteration in the district suggests at least two hydrothermal events or that hydrothermal activity lasted longer at Galana. The Sr isotope signature of sphalerite and barite (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.709162 to 0.710214) and calculated oxygen isotope composition of a fluid in equilibrium with barite and associated quartz at temperatures of around 230°C are suggestive of a seawater hydrothermal system and fluid/rock interaction. Lead isotope ratios of galena and sphalerite (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb from 18.8384 to 18.8711; ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb from 15.6695 to 15.6976; ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb from 38.9158 to 39.0161) are similar to those of South Aegean Arc volcanic and Aegean Miocene plutonic rocks, and compatible with Pb derived from an igneous source. Galena and sphalerite from Triades-Galana have δ³⁴S_VCDT values ranging from +1 to +3.6‰, whereas barite sulfate shows δ³⁴S_VCDT values from +22.8 to +24.4‰. The sulfur isotope signatures of these minerals are explained by seawater sulfate reduction processes. The new analytical data are consistent with a seawater-dominated hydrothermal system and interaction of the hydrothermal fluid with the country rocks, which are the source of the ore metals.     

Identification and assessment of groundwater flow and storage components of the relict Schöneben Rock Glacier,Niedere Tauern Range,Eastern Alps (Austria)

More than 2,600 relict rock glaciers are known in the Austrian Alps but the knowledge of their hydraulic properties is severely limited. The relict Schöneben Rock Glacier (Niedere Tauern Range, Austria), with an extension of 0.17 km², was investigated based on spring data (2006–2014) and seismic refraction survey. Spring-discharge hydrographs and natural and artificial tracer data suggest a heterogeneous aquifer with a layered internal structure for the relict rock glacier. The discharge behavior exhibits a fast and a delayed flow component. The spring discharge responds to recharge events within a few hours but a mean residence time of several months can also be observed. The internal structure of the rock glacier (up to several tens of meters thick) consists of: an upper blocky layer with a few meters of thickness, which lacks fine-grained sediments; a main middle layer with coarse and finer-grained sediments, allowing for fast flow; and an approximately 10-m-thick basal till layer as the main aquifer body responsible for the base flow. The base-flow component is controlled by (fine) sandy to silty sediments with low hydraulic conductivity and high storage capacity, exhibiting a difference in hydraulic conductivity to the upper layer of about three orders of magnitude. The high storage capacity of relict rock glaciers has an impact on water resources management in alpine catchments and potentially regulates the risk of natural hazards such as floods and related debris flows. Thus, the results highlight the importance of such aquifer systems in alpine catchments.     

Circulation and teleconnection mechanisms of Northeast Brazil droughts

The Northern Nordeste of Brazil has its short rainy season narrowly concentrated around March–April, when the interhemispheric southward gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) is weakest and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is the main rainbearing system for the Nordeste, reaches its southernmost position in the course of the year. The recurrent Secas (droughts) have a severe socio-economic impact in this semi-arid region. In drought years, the pre-season (October–January) rainfall is scarce, the interhemispheric SST gradient weakened and the basin-wide southerly (northerly) wind component enhanced (reduced), all manifestations of an anomalously far northward ITCZ position. Apart from this ensemble of Atlantic indicators, the Secas also tend to be preceded by anomalously warm equatorial Pacific waters in January. During El Niño years, an upper-tropospheric wave train extends from the equatorial eastern Pacific to the northern tropical Atlantic, affecting the patterns of upper-tropospheric topography and divergence, and hence of vertical motion over the Atlantic. The altered vertical motion leads to a weaker meridional pressure gradient on the equatorward flank of the North Atlantic subtropical high, and thus weaker North Atlantic tradewinds. The concomitant reduction of evaporation and wind stirring allows for warmer surface waters in the tropical North Atlantic and thus steeper interhemispheric meridional thermal gradient. Consequently, the ITCZ stays anomalously far North and the Nordeste rainy season becomes deficient.     

Comparison of Five Eulerian Air Pollution Forecasting Systems for the Summer of 1999 Using the German Ozone Monitoring Data

Eulerian state-of-the-art air pollution forecasting systems on the European scale are operated routinely by several countries in Europe. DWD and FUB, both Germany, NERI, Denmark, NILU, Norway, and SMHI, Sweden, operate some of these systems. To apply such modeling systems, e.g. for regulatory purposes according to new EU directives, an evaluation and comparison of the model systems is fundamental in order to assess their reliability. One step in this direction is presented in this study: The model forecasts from all five systems have been compared to measurements of ground level ozone in Germany. The outstanding point in this investigation is the availability of a huge amount of data – from forecasts by the different model systems and from observations. This allows for a thorough interpretation of the findings and assures the significance of the observed features. Data from more than 300 measurement stations for a 5-month period (May–September 1999) of the German monitoring networks have been used in this comparison. Different spatial and temporal statistical parameters were applied in the evaluation. Generally, it was found that the most comprehensive models gave the best results. However, the less comprehensive and computational cheaper models also produced good results. The extensive comparison made it possible to point out weak points in the different models and to describe the individual model behavior for a full summer period in a climatological sense. The comparison also gave valuable information for an assessment of individual measurement stations and complete monitoring networks in terms of the representativeness of the observation data.