Modelling and Remote Sensing of Land Surface Temperature in Turkey

This study introduces artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the estimation of land surface temperature (LST) using meteorological and geographical data in Turkey (26?C45°E and 36?C42°N). A generalized regression neural network (GRNN) was used in the network. In order to train the neural network, meteorological and geographical data for the period from January 2002 to December 2002 for 10 stations (Adana, Afyon, Ankara, Eski?ehir, ?stanbul, ?zmir, Konya, Malatya, Rize, Sivas) spread over Turkey were used as training (six stations) and testing (four stations) data. Latitude, longitude, elevation and mean air temperature are used in the input layer of the network. Land surface temperature is the output. However, land surface temperature has been estimated as monthly mean by using NOAA-AVHRR satellite data in the thermal range over 10 stations in Turkey. The RMSE between the estimated and ground values for monthly mean with ANN temperature(LST_ANN) and Becker and Li temperature(LST_B-L) method values have been found as 0.077?K and 0.091?K (training stations), 0.045?K and 0.003?K (testing stations), respectively.     

Reliable estimation of orbit errors in spaceborne SAR interferometry

An approach to improve orbital state vectors by orbit error estimates derived from residual phase patterns in synthetic aperture radar interferograms is presented. For individual interferograms, an error representation by two parameters is motivated: the baseline error in cross-range and the rate of change of the baseline error in range. For their estimation, two alternatives are proposed: a least squares approach that requires prior unwrapping and a less reliable gridsearch method handling the wrapped phase. In both cases, reliability is enhanced by mutual control of error estimates in an overdetermined network of linearly dependent interferometric combinations of images. Thus, systematic biases, e.g., due to unwrapping errors, can be detected and iteratively eliminated. Regularising the solution by a minimum-norm condition results in quasi-absolute orbit errors that refer to particular images. For the 31 images of a sample ENVISAT dataset, orbit corrections with a mutual consistency on the millimetre level have been inferred from 163 interferograms. The method itself qualifies by reliability and rigorous geometric modelling of the orbital error signal but does not consider interfering large scale deformation effects. However, a separation may be feasible in a combined processing with persistent scatterer approaches or by temporal filtering of the estimates.     

Strategies to mitigate aliasing of loading signals while estimating GPS frame parameters

Although GNSS techniques are theoretically sensitive to the Earth center of mass, it is often preferable to remove intrinsic origin and scale information from the estimated station positions since they are known to be affected by systematic errors. This is usually done by estimating the parameters of a linearized similarity transformation which relates the quasi-instantaneous frames to a long-term frame such as the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF). It is well known that non-linear station motions can partially alias into these parameters. We discuss in this paper some procedures that may allow reducing these aliasing effects in the case of the GPS techniques. The options include the use of well-distributed sub-networks for the frame transformation estimation, the use of site loading corrections, a modification of the stochastic model by downweighting heights, or the joint estimation of the low degrees of the deformation field. We confirm that the standard approach consisting of estimating the transformation over the whole network is particularly harmful for the loading signals if the network is not well distributed. Downweighting the height component, using a uniform sub-network, or estimating the deformation field perform similarly in drastically reducing the amplitude of the aliasing effect. The application of these methods to reprocessed GPS terrestrial frames permits an assessment of the level of agreement between GPS and our loading model, which is found to be about 1.5 mm WRMS in height and 0.8 mm WRMS in the horizontal at the annual frequency. Aliased loading signals are not the main source of discrepancies between loading displacement models and GPS position time series.     

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO₂ concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO₂ emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.     

The study of instabilities in the solar wind and magnetosheath and their interaction with the Earth's magnetosphere

The thesis concentrates on an analysis of the experimental data as well as numerical simulation of propagation of fast forward (FF) shocks in the solar wind and their evolution through the magnetosheath to the inner magnetosphere. The thesis was defended at the Charles University, Prague, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Department of Plasma and Surface Science (V Holesovickach 2, 180 00 Prague 8, Czech Republic) on September 30, 2008 under supervision of Doc. Lubomír P?ech. The thesis is written in English and a resume can be found at http://physics.mff.cuni.cz/kfpp/phd/andreeova.pdf.     

The aperiodic broad-band X-ray variability of Cygnus X-3

We study the soft X-ray variability of Cygnus X-3. By combining data from the All-Sky Monitor and Proportional Counter Array instruments on the RXTE satellite with EXOSAT /Medium Energy (ME) detector observations, we are able to analyse the power density spectrum (PDS) of the source from 10⁻⁹ to 0.1 Hz, thus covering time-scales from seconds to years. As the data on the longer time-scales are unevenly sampled, we combine traditional power spectral techniques with simulations to analyse the variability in this range. The PDS at higher frequencies  (≳10⁻³ Hz)  are for the first time compared for all states of this source. We find that it is for all states well described by a power law, with index  ∼−2  in the soft states and a tendency for a less steep power law in the hard state. At longer time-scales, we study the effect of the state transitions on the PDS, and find that the variability below  ∼10⁻⁷ Hz  is dominated by the transitions. Furthermore, we find no correlation between the length of a high/soft-state episode and the time since the previous high/soft state. On intermediate time-scales, we find evidence for a break in the PDS at time-scales of the order of the orbital period. This may be interpreted as evidence for the existence of a tidal resonance in the accretion disc around the compact object, and constraining the mass ratio to   M ₂/ M ₁≲ 0.3  .     

Spectral analysis of the 91bg-like Type Ia SN 2005bl: low luminosity, low velocities, incomplete burning

The properties of underluminous Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) of the 91bg subclass have yet to be theoretically understood. Here, we take a closer look at the structure of the dim SN Ia 2005bl. We infer the abundance and density profiles needed to reproduce the observed spectral evolution between −6 d and  +12.9 d  with respect to B maximum. Initially, we assume the density structure of the standard explosion model W7; then we test whether better fits to the observed spectra can be obtained using modified density profiles with different total masses and kinetic energies. Compared to normal SNe Ia, we find a lack of burning products especially in the rapidly expanding outer layers  ( v ≳ 15 000 km s⁻¹)  . The zone between ∼8500 and 15 000 km s⁻¹ is dominated by oxygen and includes some amount of intermediate-mass elements. At lower velocities, intermediate-mass elements dominate. This holds down to the lowest zones investigated in this work. This fact, together with negligible-to-moderate abundances of Fe-group elements, indicates large-scale incomplete Si burning or explosive O burning, possibly in a detonation at low densities. Consistently with the reduced nucleosynthesis, we find hints of a kinetic energy lower than that of a canonical SN Ia: the spectra strongly favour reduced densities at  ≳13 000 km s⁻¹  compared to W7, and are very well fitted using a rescaled W7 model with original mass  (1.38 M_⊙)  , but a kinetic energy reduced by ∼30 per cent (i.e. from  1.33 × 10⁵¹  to  0.93 × 10⁵¹ erg  ).     

Melting and Sublimation of Planetary Ices Under Low Pressure Conditions: Laboratory Experiments with a Melting Probe Prototype

One possibility to explore the subsurface layers of icy bodies is to use a probe with a “hot tip", which is able to penetrate ice layers by melting. Such probes have been built and used in the past for the exploration of terrestrial polar ice sheets and may also become useful tools to explore other icy layers in the Solar System. Examples for such layers are the polar areas of Mars or the icy crust of Jupiter’s moon Europa. However, while on Earth a heated probe launched into an ice sheet always causes melting with subsequent refreezing, the behaviour of such a probe in a low pressure environment is quite different. We report on the results of some experiments with a simple “melting probe" prototype with two different kinds of hot tips in a vacuum environment. For one of the tips the probe moved into two types of ice samples: (i) compact water ice and (ii) porous water ice with a snow (firn) like texture. It was also found that the penetration behaviour was basically different for the two sample types even when the same kind of tip was used. While in the porous sample the ice was only subliming, the phase changes occurring during the interaction of the tip with the compact ice are much more complex. Here alternating phases of melting and sublimation occur. The absence of the liquid phase has severe consequences on the performance of a “melting probe" under vacuum conditions: In this environment we find a high thermal resistance between the probe surface and the underlying ice. Therefore, only a low percentage of the heat that is generated in the tip is used to melt or sublime the ice, the bulk of the power is transferred towards the rear end of the probe. This is particularly a problem in the initial phases of an ice penetration experiment, when the probe has not yet penetrated the ice over its whole length. In the compact ice sample, phases could be observed, where a high enough gas pressure had built up locally underneath the probe, so that melting becomes possible. Only during these melting periods the thermal contact between the probe and the ice is good and in consequence the melting probe works effectively.     

A multiphysics and multiscale software environment for modeling astrophysical systems

We present MUSE, a software framework for combining existing computational tools for different astrophysical domains into a single multiphysics, multiscale application. MUSE facilitates the coupling of existing codes written in different languages by providing inter-language tools and by specifying an interface between each module and the framework that represents a balance between generality and computational efficiency. This approach allows scientists to use combinations of codes to solve highly coupled problems without the need to write new codes for other domains or significantly alter their existing codes. MUSE currently incorporates the domains of stellar dynamics, stellar evolution and stellar hydrodynamics for studying generalized stellar systems. We have now reached a “Noah’s Ark” milestone, with (at least) two available numerical solvers for each domain. MUSE can treat multiscale and multiphysics systems in which the time- and size-scales are well separated, like simulating the evolution of planetary systems, small stellar associations, dense stellar clusters, galaxies and galactic nuclei. In this paper we describe three examples calculated using MUSE: the merger of two galaxies, the merger of two evolving stars, and a hybrid N-body simulation. In addition, we demonstrate an implementation of MUSE on a distributed computer which may also include special-purpose hardware, such as GRAPEs or GPUs, to accelerate computations. The current MUSE code base is publicly available as open source at http://muse.li.