Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA

The state of knowledge and resources available to issue alerts of precipitation-induced landslides vary across the USA. Federal and state agencies currently issue warnings of the potential for shallow, rapidly moving landslides and debris flows in a few areas along the Pacific coast and for areas affected by Atlantic hurricanes. However, these agencies generally lack resources needed to provide continuous support or to expand services to other areas. Precipitation thresholds that form the basis of landslide warning systems now exist for a few areas of the USA, but the threshold rainfall amounts and durations vary over three orders of magnitude nationwide and over an order of magnitude across small geographic areas such as a county. Antecedent moisture conditions also have a significant effect, particularly in areas that have distinct wet and dry seasons. Early warnings of shallow landslides that include specific information about affected areas, probability of landslide occurrence, and expected timing are technically feasible as illustrated by a case study from the Seattle, WA area. The four-level warning scheme (Null, Outlook, Watch, Warning) defined for Seattle is based on observed or predicted exceedance of a cumulative precipitation threshold and a rainfall intensity–duration threshold combined with real-time monitoring of soil moisture. Based on analysis of historical data, threshold performance varies according to precipitation characteristics, and threshold exceedance corresponds to a given probability of landslide occurrence. Experience in Seattle during December 2004 and January 2005 illustrates some of the challenges of providing landslide early warning on the USA West Coast.     

A comparison of three Eurasian chironomid–climate calibration datasets on a W–E continentality gradient and the implications for quantitative temperature reconstructions

Multiple regional chironomid–climate calibration datasets are available to reconstruct quantitatively July air temperatures from fossil chironomid assemblages. We examined the relationship between July air temperature and the 40 most common chironomid taxa in three independent Eurasian calibration (training) sets. The estimated temperature optimum of each chironomid taxon is systematically lower (by ~1–2 °C) in a Norwegian calibration set compared to Finnish and Russian calibration sets. This result might partly be explained by the fact that the Norwegian calibration set extends further at the cold end of the temperature gradient. A difference in continentality between the Russian sites and the European sites might also contribute to this pattern. The number of taxa that show a statistically significant unimodal response to temperature is higher in the Norwegian calibration set (34 out of 40 taxa) compared to the modern Finnish (11 of 37 taxa; 3 common taxa absent) and the Russian calibration set (20 of 40 taxa), probably due to the longer temperature gradient incorporated in the Norwegian calibration set. We applied all three calibration sets to fossil chironomid assemblages from the high-latitude study site of Sokli (northeast Finland), a site with a unique series of lacustrine deposits covering (amongst others) the Holocene, part of early MIS 3 (at ~53 ka) and MIS 5d–c (at ~110–95 ka) and with independent proxy-records for comparison. In the early Holocene and during MIS 5c, the chironomid-based temperature inferences from all three inference models had similar values. Temperature reconstructions based on the Norwegian calibration set are 2–4 °C lower for the late Holocene, early MIS 3 and MIS 5d than the inferred temperatures based on the other calibration sets. Although the lakes included in the Finnish calibration set are located closest to the site of Sokli, evaluation tests and a comparison with independent proxy data suggests that the Norwegian calibration set provides the most suitable analogues for reconstruction purposes for most of the fossil assemblages. Our results imply that when choosing a calibration set for quantitative climate reconstructions on glacial timescales, regional proximity of the fossil site may not be a sufficient basis, and the length of the temperature gradient of the calibration dataset and factors such as the continentality gradient covered by the calibration set must also be considered.     

Airborne near-real-time monitoring of assembly and parking areas in case of large-scale public events and natural disasters

A critical requirement for an effective and coordinated response by public entities tasked with management, security, and relief during large-scale public events or natural disasters is the availability of current situational information. However, today there is a lack of comprehensive operational systems allowing a near-real-time (NRT) collection, visualization, and provision of situational information for larger areas. In this study a methodological framework is proposed, which allows an NRT extraction and visualization of situational information based on aerial image acquisition. The framework combines digital image analysis using a generic supervised information extraction approach based on statistical modeling with a downstream web-based visualization component realized through an automatic update of web services. Even though being applicable for different scenarios, the workflow will be demonstrated for the specific use-case of a NRT monitoring of open spaces including assembly and parking areas. Compared to other approaches, image analysis results indicate a high robustness and a low demand for computational power sources (7 seconds per image). Due to a high degree of automation, the proposed workflow contributes to a NRT ‘end-to-end’ monitoring system, which was developed within the VABENE (German acronym for ‘traffic management under large-scale public events and disaster conditions’) project covering all parts from the acquisition of raw aerial imagery to the dissemination of information products to end-users.     

Earthquakes as a potential contributing factor to climate change at multi-decadal scale

Climate changes at the multi-decadal scale are often associated with multi-decadal phase shifts of the dominant sea surface temperature （SST） pattern, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）. The PDO may be associated with the North Pacific branch of the Thermohaline Circulation （THC）. Great earthquakes （M 〉8）, particularly along the route of the THC, might modulate the vertical mixing and bring deep, cold water to surface, contributing to multi-decadal changes in surface currents and the PDO. This may eventually lead to multi-decadal climate changes. We tested this hypothesis for the Pacific Ocean where great earthquakes have been frequently recorded. We found associations between the PDO and recurrent earthquakes along the route of the deep currents of the THC in the modern period since 1900, and relationships between hydroclimate change in Monsoonal Asia and historical earthquakes since 1300. However, it should be noted that this hypothesis is very preliminary and has many gaps that needs further evidences from more observational records and modeling studies.     

An improved processing sequence for uncorrelated Chirp sonar data

Chirp sonar systems can be used to obtain high resolution seismic reflection images of the sub-seafloor during marine surveys. The exact knowledge of the Chirp signature allows the use of deterministic algorithms to process the data, similarly to that applied to Vibroseis data on land. Here, it is described an innovative processing sequence to be applied to uncorrelated Chirp data, which can improve vertical and lateral resolution compared to conventional methods. It includes application of a Wiener filter to transform a frequency-modulated sweep into a minimum-phase pulse sequence. In this way, the data become causal and can undergo predictive deconvolution to reduce ringing and enhance vertical resolution. Afterwards, FX-deconvolution and Stolt migration can be applied to obtain an improved imaging of the subsurface. The result of this procedure is a seismic reflection image with higher resolution than traditional ones, which are normally represented using the envelope function of the signal. This technique can be particularly useful for engineering-geotechnical surveys and archaeological investigations that require a fine detail imaging of the uppermost meters of the sub-seafloor.     

The importance of reduced meat and dairy consumption for meeting stringent climate change targets

For agriculture, there are three major options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: 1) productivity improvements, particularly in the livestock sector; 2) dedicated technical mitigation measures; and 3) human dietary changes. The aim of the paper is to estimate long-term agricultural GHG emissions, under different mitigation scenarios, and to relate them to the emissions space compatible with the 2 °C temperature target. Our estimates include emissions up to 2070 from agricultural soils, manure management, enteric fermentation and paddy rice fields, and are based on IPCC Tier 2 methodology. We find that baseline agricultural CO₂-equivalent emissions (using Global Warming Potentials with a 100 year time horizon) will be approximately 13 Gton CO₂eq/year in 2070, compared to 7.1 Gton CO₂eq/year 2000. However, if faster growth in livestock productivity is combined with dedicated technical mitigation measures, emissions may be kept to 7.7 Gton CO₂eq/year in 2070. If structural changes in human diets are included, emissions may be reduced further, to 3–5 Gton CO₂eq/year in 2070. The total annual emissions for meeting the 2 °C target with a chance above 50 % is in the order of 13 Gton CO₂eq/year or less in 2070, for all sectors combined. We conclude that reduced ruminant meat and dairy consumption will be indispensable for reaching the 2 °C target with a high probability, unless unprecedented advances in technology take place.     

Turbulent flux observations and modelling over a shallow lake and a wet grassland in the Nam Co basin,Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau plays an important role in the global water cycle and is strongly influenced by climate change. While energy and matter fluxes have been more intensely studied over land surfaces, a large proportion of lakes have either been neglected or parameterised with simple bulk approaches. Therefore, turbulent fluxes were measured over wet grassland and a shallow lake with a single eddy-covariance complex at the shoreline in the Nam Co basin in summer 2009. Footprint analysis was used to split observations according to the underlying surface, and two sophisticated surface models were utilised to derive gap-free time series. Results were then compared with observations and simulations from a nearby eddy-covariance station over dry grassland, yielding pronounced differences. Observations and footprint integrated simulations compared well, even for situations with flux contributions including grassland and lake. The accessibility problem for EC measurements on lakes can be overcome by combining standard meteorological measurements at the shoreline with model simulations, only requiring representative estimates of lake surface temperature.     

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.     

Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model

Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean–atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993–2010 and model reanalysis over 1981–2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981–2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.     

Comparison of seismic activity for Llaima and Villarrica volcanoes prior to and after the Maule 2010 earthquake

Llaima and Villarrica are two of the most active volcanoes in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone and presently show contrasting types of activity. Llaima is a closed vent edifice with fumarolic activity, while Villarrica has an open vent with a lava lake, continuous degassing and tremor activity. This study is focused on characterizing the relationships between volcanic and seismic activity in the months before and after the 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake, which was located in NNW direction from the volcanoes. Time series for tremors, long-period and volcano-tectonic events were obtained from the catalogue of the Volcanic Observatory of the Southern Andes (OVDAS) and from the SFB 574 temporary volcanic network. An increase in the amount of tremor activity, long-period events and degassing rates was observed at Villarrica weeks before the mainshock and continued at a high level also after it. This increase in activity is interpreted to be caused by enhanced magma influx at depth and may be unrelated to the Maule event. In Llaima, an increase in the volcano-tectonic activity was observed directly after the earthquake. The simultaneous post-earthquake activity at both volcanoes is consistent with a structural adjustment response. Since this enhanced activity lasted for more than a year, we suggest that it is related to a medium-term change in the static stress. Thus, the Maule earthquake may have affected both volcanoes, but did not trigger eruptions, from which we assume that none of the volcanoes were in a critical state.