The structural vulnerability in the framework of natural hazard risk analyses and the exemplary application for storm loss modelling in Tyrol (Austria)

In the context of natural hazard-related risk analyses, different concepts and comprehensions of the term risk exist. These differences are mostly subjected to the perceptions and historical backgrounds of the different scientific disciplines and results in a multitude of methodological concepts to analyse risk. The target-oriented selection and application of these concepts depend on the specific research object which is generally closely connected to the stakeholders’ interests. An obvious characteristic of the different conceptualizations is the immanent various comprehensions of vulnerability. As risk analyses from a natural scientific-technical background aim at estimating potential expositions and consequences of natural hazard events, the results can provide an appropriate decision basis for risk management strategies. Thereby, beside the preferably addressed gravitative and hydrological hazards, seismo-tectonical and especially meteorological hazard processes have been rarely considered within multi-risk analyses in an Alpine context. Hence, their comparative grading in an overall context of natural hazard risks is not quantitatively possible. The present paper focuses on both (1) the different concepts of the natural hazard risk and especially their specific expressions in the context of vulnerability and (2) the exemplary application of the natural scientific-technical risk concepts to analyse potential extreme storm losses in the Austrian Province of Tyrol. Following the corresponding general risk concept, the case study first defines the hazard potential, second estimates the exposures and damage potentials on the basis of an existing database of the stock of elements and values, and third analyses the so-called Extreme Scenario Losses (ESL) considering the structural vulnerability of the potentially affected elements at risk. Thereby, it can be shown that extreme storm events can induce losses solely to buildings and inventory in the range of EUR 100–150 million in Tyrol. However, in an overall context of potential extreme natural hazard events, the storm risk can be classified with a moderate risk potential in this province.     

Fishing for diatoms: fish gut analysis reveals water quality changes over a 75-year period

Defining the reference state of some perturbed streams and rivers is challenging since their non-altered state is undocumented. Despite the near-absence of pristine sites in highly anthropogenic areas, information about aquatic communities that existed prior to human disturbance can be obtained from historic sources. Sediment coring is commonly used in paleolimnology to estimate past environmental conditions of lakes, but this technique is often not appropriate for studies of lotic systems. An alternative is to use diatom assemblages present in the guts of fish that were captured in the streams prior to significant human disturbance. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the biological integrity of several streams in Ontario and Québec during the early twentieth century based on “paleo” diatom assemblages extracted from the guts of fish stored in museums. The Eastern Canadian diatom index (IDEC: Indice Diatomées de l’Est du Canada) was used to evaluate the biological status of “paleo” and “modern” diatom assemblages. The IDEC shows the position of diatom assemblages on a general pollution gradient. The comparison of IDEC values calculated for the 1925–1948 and the 2003–2007 periods showed that several streams were severely polluted in the early 1900s. In general, present water quality has declined compared to the early 1900s. The biological integrity of only three of the 22 sites has increased. IDEC values were not influenced by the species of fish studied.     

Petrography of alluvial sands as a past and present environmental indicator: Case of the Loire River (France)

Four sample sets of the Upper and Middle Loire river sands were analyzed in order to study the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors on their petrographic composition in space (on an 800 km stretch) and time. Composition was determined by modal analysis of three sand-size fractions using a polarizing optical microscope and calculated for each sample (“standard sand” = Sst). The watershed is composed mainly of endogenic (Massif Central) and sedimentary (southern Parisian Basin) rocks. B-set sands collected in channels for different water flows in 1996 show that Sst compositions vary by only 5 %. Present-day sands in the Upper Loire and Middle Loire have very high petrographic immaturity comparing to others worldwide fluvial sands, although bio-climatic conditions favor sand maturation by source-rock weathering in the watershed. This shows the strong impact of the Massif Central on sediment yield due to relief rejuvenation as a consequence of the formation of the Alps during the Quaternary. Fluvial sands stored during the Weichselian and the Holocene in the Middle Loire floodplain, although partly weathered since their deposition, show higher inputs from the endogenic rocks of the Massif Central than present-day deposits. This can be explained by Weichselian periglacial conditions and the development of crop farming since the Neolithic, which favored mechanical erosion, particularly in the Massif Central which is characterized by a cold, humid climate and steep slopes. The upstream-downstream change in the composition of presently deposited sand is low in the diked area. It shows however that basalt and some heavy mineral grains are vulnerable to abrasion during transport and indicates a marked sediment yield from ancient sediment stored in the floodplain. This is in line with the high incision of the river bed over the last 150 years partly due to dam construction and aggregate mining.     

Single GPS receiver time-relative positioning with loop misclosure corrections

Time-relative positioning makes use of observations taken at two different epochs and stations with a single global positioning system (GPS) receiver to determine the position of the unknown station with respect to the known station. The limitation of this method is the degradation over time of the positioning accuracy due to the temporal variation of GPS errors (ionospheric delay, satellite clock corrections, satellite ephemerides, and tropospheric delay). The impact of these errors is significantly reduced by adding to the one-way move from the known to the unknown station, a back move to the known station. A loop misclosure is computed from the coordinates obtained at the known station at the beginning and at the end of the loop, and is used to correct the coordinates of the unknown station. The field tests, presented in this paper, show that using the loop misclosure corrections, time-relative positioning accuracy can be improved by about 60% when using single frequency data, and by about 40% with dual frequency data. For a 4-min processing interval (an 8-min loop) and a 95% probability level, errors remain under 20 cm for the horizontal components and 36 cm for the vertical component with single frequency data; and under 11 cm for the horizontal components and 29 cm for the vertical component with dual frequency data.     

P–T–t estimation of deformation in low‐grade quartz‐feldspar‐bearing rocks using thermodynamic modelling and 40Ar/39Ar dating techniques: example of the Plan‐de‐Phasy shear zone unit (Briançonnais Zone,Western Alps)

Pressure–Temperature–time (P–T–t) estimates of the syn‐kinematic strain at the peak‐pressure conditions reached during shallow underthrusting of the Briançonnais Zone in the Alpine subduction zone was made by thermodynamic modelling and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating in the Plan‐de‐Phasy unit (SE of the Pelvoux Massif, Western Alps). The dated phengite minerals crystallized syn‐kinematically in a shear zone indicating top‐to‐the‐N motion. By combining X‐ray mapping with multi‐equilibrium calculations, we estimate the phengite crystallization conditions at 270 ± 50 °C and 8.1 ± 2 kbar at an age of 45.9 ± 1.1 Ma. Combining this P–T–t estimate with data from the literature allows us to constrain the timing and geometry of Alpine continental subduction. We propose that the Briançonnais units were scalped on top of the slab during ongoing continental subduction and exhumed continuously until collision.     

Earthquake strong motion simulated by stress drop models

Shallow strike slip earthquakes on vertical faults are modelled as two-dimensional antiplane strain ruptures in a uniformly prestressed homogeneous halfspace. Behind the rupture front, which is specified, the stress drops to a lower value. The elastodynamic boundary value problem is solved with a finite difference method. Several cases are studied, which include symmetric and one-directional rupture propagation, surface faulting, multiple events, variable rupture velocity, sticking and rebreaking of the fault plane. The time function of displacement, velocity and acceleration are interpreted as signals generated by events in the focus, namely starting, stopping and breaking through the surface of the rupture. The model explains peak velocity and peak acceleration in the near field of M5.5–6 earthquakes; which are typically about 0.2 m/s and 5 m/s² at 10 km epicentral distance, if the rupture velocity is close to the shear wave velocity. Sticking of the fault does not alter the accelerograms significantly, but it increases the seismic moment in simple events and decreases it in multiple events.Contribution No. 226, Geophysical Institute, University of Karlsruhe.     

Stream nitrate uptake and transient storage over a gradient of geomorphic complexity,north‐central Colorado,USA

The understanding of nutrient uptake in streams is impeded by a limited understanding of how geomorphic setting and flow regime interact with biogeochemical processing. This study investigated these interactions as they relate to transient storage and nitrate uptake in small agricultural and urban streams. Sites were selected across a gradient of channel conditions and management modifications and included three 180‐m long geomorphically distinct reaches on each of two streams in north‐central Colorado. The agricultural stream has been subject to historically variable cattle‐grazing practices, and the urban stream exhibits various levels of stabilisation and planform alteration. Reach‐scale geomorphic complexity was characterised using highly detailed surveys of channel morphology, substrate, hydraulics and habitat units. Breakthrough‐curve modelling of conservative bromide (Br^?) and nonconservative nitrate (NO₃^?) tracer injections characterised transient storage and nitrate uptake along each reach. Longitudinal roughness and flow depth were positively associated with transient storage, which was related to nitrate uptake, thus underscoring the importance of geomorphic influences on stream biogeochemical processes. In addition, changes in geomorphic characteristics due to temporal discharge variation led to complex responses in nitrate uptake. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

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