European floods during the winter 1783/1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the ‘Little Ice Age’

The Lakagígar eruption in Iceland during 1783 was followed by the severe winter of 1783/1784, which was characterised by low temperatures, frozen soils, ice-bound watercourses and high rates of snow accumulation across much of Europe. Sudden warming coupled with rainfall led to rapid snowmelt, resulting in a series of flooding phases across much of Europe. The first phase of flooding occurred in late December 1783–early January 1784 in England, France, the Low Countries and historical Hungary. The second phase at the turn of February–March 1784 was of greater extent, generated by the melting of an unusually large accumulation of snow and river ice, affecting catchments across France and Central Europe (where it is still considered as one of the most disastrous known floods), throughout the Danube catchment and in southeast Central Europe. The third and final phase of flooding occurred mainly in historical Hungary during late March and early April 1784. The different impacts and consequences of the above floods on both local and regional scales were reflected in the economic and societal responses, material damage and human losses. The winter of 1783/1784 can be considered as typical, if severe, for the Little Ice Age period across much of Europe.     

Ground motion characterization and seismic hazard assessment in Spain: context,problems and recent developments

This article points out some particular features conditioning seismic hazard assessments (SHA) in Spain, a region with low–moderate seismicity. Although sized earthquakes occurred in the past, as evidenced by historical documents and neotectonic studies, no large events occurred during the last decades. The absence of strong motion records corresponding to earthquakes with magnitude larger than 5.5 is an important obstacle for the development of ground motion models constrained by local data, with the consequent difficulty in SHA studies. In this paper, some recent developments aiming at providing solutions to these difficulties are presented. Specifically, a strong motion databank containing a massive collection of accelerograms and response spectra from different configurations source-path-site corresponding to earthquakes all over the world is introduced, together with software utilities for its management. A first application of this databank is the development of specific ground motion models for Spain and for the Mediterranean region that predict peak ground accelerations as a function of several definitions of magnitude, distance and soil class. The predictive power of these ground motion models is tested by contrasting their estimates with recently recorded ground motions. The comparison between our ground-motion models with others proposed in the literature for other areas reveals a regular overestimation of the expected ground motions at Spanish sites by the non-local models. Consequently, SHA studies based in external models may overestimate the predicted hazard at the Iberian sites. In the last part of the paper a method for checking whether the response spectra proposed in the Spanish Building Code (NCSE-02) are consistent with actual accelerometric data from recent low magnitude earthquakes is applied. The spectral shapes of the Spanish Building Code NCSE-02 are compared with the response spectral shapes deduced from the available accelerograms by normalising the response spectra with the recorded PGA. It is appreciated that the NCSE-02 spectral shapes are exceeded by a large number of actual spectral shapes for short periods (around 0.2 s), a result to be taken into account in further revisions of the NCSE-02 code. The issues tackled in this work constitute not only an improvement for ground-motion characterisation in Spain, but also provide guidelines of general interest for potential applications in other regions with similar seismicity.     

The sedimentary rocks of macaronesia

In all the archipelagos forming Macaronesia, volcanis predominate, but pre-Quaternary sediments are also present, though playing a humble role.Calcareous deposits have by far the greatest significance throughout the known stratigraphic record. Tertiary occurrences tend to be thin, show more gentle dips, whereas the Mesozoics attain thicknesses of 400 m (certain), attitudes steeper, often vertical.To date, Mesozoics are recognized only in Maio (Cape Verde), are possible in S. Nicolau (Cape Verde) and Fuerteventura (Canary Islands). Whether strata as old as Jurassic is present in these three islands is a moot point. Ample arguments, pro and con, have been presented for Maio; there is meagre evidence in S. Nicolau; pure conjecture in Fuerteventura.Beginning with the Neogene, the stratigraphic record for Macaronesia is more substantial, the Vindobonian being present or then strongly suspected in all archipelagos.The sedimentary rocks in these islands have not aroused the same interests as the volcanics, and undeniably they are of far less importance as regards rock constitution. The status of investigations varies widely within the different islands, and as of the present, we must frankly recognize that our knowledge of the sedimentaries is only of reconnaissance standard.

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Zusammenfassung Auf allen Inselgruppen, die man als Makaronesen zusammenfaßt, überwiegen vulkanische Gesteine; prä-quartäre Sedimente gibt es — in geringem Umfang — ebenfalls.Kalkablagerungen haben, nach den bekannten stratigraphischen Zeugnissen zu urteilen, die größte Bedeutung. Tertiär ist in geringer Mächtigkeit und schwach geneigt vertreten, während das Mesozoikum bis zu 400 m nachgewiesene Mächtigkeit erreicht und verstellt, oft vertikal auftritt.Bisher ist Mesozoikum nur in Maio (Kapverden) bekannt, möglicherweise auch in S. Nicolau (Kapverden) und Fuerteventura (Kanarische Inseln). Ob Schichten jurassischen Alters und den drei Inseln vorkommen, ist umstritten. Argumente dafür und dagegen sind für Maio reichlich zusammengetragen worden; für S. Nicolau gibt es magere Hinweise, für Fuerteventura nur Vermutungen.Seit dem Neogen sind die stratigraphischen Zeugnisse auf den makaronesischen Inseln umfangreicher; so ist Vindobon auf allen Inselgruppen vorhanden oder sein Vorkommen mindestens sehr wahrscheinlich gemacht.Die sedimentären Gesteine haben auf den Inseln nicht das gleiche Interesse gefunden wie die vulkanischen, und sie sind auch ganz sicher von geringerer Bedeutung, soweit es sich um ihren Gesteinscharakter handelt. Der Forschungsstand ist innerhalb der Inseln sehr unterschiedlich, und wir müssen eingestehen, daß zur Zeit unser Wissen über die sedimentären Gesteine sieh noch im Anfangsstadium befindet.

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Résumé Le matériel volcanique domine dans les îles de l'archipel des Macaronesia. Les sédiments pré-quaternaires sont aussi présents, bien que jouant un rôle plus modeste.Les formations calcaires sont de loin les plus représentatives des dépôts reconnus de la colonne stratigraphique. Les dépôts cénozoiques sont généralement peu épais et présentent de faibles pendages, tandis que ceux du Mésozoique atteignent des épaisseurs de 400 m (démontrées), et des pendages importants, atteignant souvent la verticale.Jusqu'à présent, les dépôts mésozoiques ont été reconnus uniquement à Maio (Cap Vert), sont possibles à S. Nicolau (Cap Vert) et Fuerteventura (Iles des Canaries). La présence de Jurassique dans ces trois îles est encore un sujet de controverse. De nombreux arguments, positifs ou négatifs, ont été présentés concernant l'île de Maio; les arguments positifs sont légèrement dominants à S. Nicolau; le problème est à l'état de pure hypothèse à Fuerteventura.On peut faire débuter sans ambiguité la colonne stratigraphique des îles de l'archipel Macaronesia au Néogène, le Vindobonien étant présent ou fortement suspecté dans toutes les archipels.Les roches sédimentaires dans ces îles n'ont pas suscité le même intérêt que les roches volcaniques, et indéniablement leur importance est moindre. L'état d'avancement de ces travaux varie largement d'une île à l'autre, mais à l'heure actuelle, nous devons reconnaître qu'ils en sont seulement au stade de la reconnaissance.

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A relation in families of periodic solutions

We show the existence of a general relation between the parameters of periodic solutions in dynamical systems with ignorable coordinates. In particular, for time-independent systems with an axis of symmetry, the relation takes the form T/A=–/E, whereT is the period,A is the angular momentum, is the angle through which the system has rotated after one period, andE is the energy.     

LA‐ICP‐MS Analysis of Small Samples: Carbonate Reference Materials and Larval Fish Otoliths

This article proposes a methodology to analyse the composition of very small carbonate samples such as larval fish otoliths. The chemical composition of otoliths, which are carbonate structures in the inner ear, is often used to explore population dynamics in fishes. Recent advances in laser ablation‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry have suggested its potential application to this field. In this study, analyses were performed using a 193 nm ArF Resonetics LA system, coupled to an Agilent 7700X‐ICP‐MS, with the following ablation parameters: a beam diameter of 5 μm, energy of 3 mJ, 2.7 J cm^?2, laser repetition rate of 10 Hz and translation speed of 2.5 μm s^?1. NIST SRM 610 glass was used as the primary calibration material. Performing this protocol, characterisation of a USGS GP‐4 reference material was achieved with suitable precision and accuracy, but the USGS MACS‐3 reference material appeared more heterogeneous under the ablation conditions tested. Calibration was performed using two different beam diameters (5 and 11 μm). Capelin (Mallotus villosus) otoliths measuring between 10 and 20 μm in diameter were tested. Even though a smaller beam diameter and lower energy were used compared with those normally employed to analyse larger otoliths, the method was successful.     

A geologic study of the Juan del Grijalva landslide,the most important mass movement during the last century in Mexico

On November 4th 2007, along the Grijalva River in the state of Chiapas, Mexico, has occurred one of the largest landslides ever known. This landslide, known as Juan del Grijalva, destroyed the town of the same name, killing 20 people, and moved 55 million cubic meters of rock and debris down slope to completely block the Grijalva River. In order to understand the characteristics and factors that triggered the Juan del Grijalva landslide, geologic studies were conducted at the site. The results indicate that the landslide was composed of a lithologic sequence of thin-bedded shales and thin to medium-thick-bedded sandstones. This was faulted into several blocks dipping in the same sense as the mass movement. The main triggering factor was the increment of the pore pressure into the lithologic unit due to water saturation after 5 days of heavy rain before the incident. According to records from the last century, the Juan del Grijalva mass movement represents one of the largest mass movements recorded all over the world. The risk conditions of the area after the landslide lead to the rapid construction of an artificial channel to drain the accumulating mass of water upstream and therefore prevent a future catastrophic inundation down stream.     

Role of time variant and invariant terms on soil moisture spatio-temporal variability in a subhumid coastal wetland

The knowledge of soil moisture spatio-temporal variability is highly relevant for water resources management. This paper reports an analysis of the spatial–temporal variability of soil moisture data for a small to medium-scale soil-sensors network in a coastal wetland of southwestern Spain. Measurements were taken from five sites located in the Doñana National Park over the time-period of one hydrological year from September 2017 to September 2018. The total area of the soil-sensors network shows an extension about 25 × 3 km. Soil moisture data was separated into time invariant (the temporal mean of the whole period at each site) and time-variant terms (the deviations of soil moisture from the mean, or anomalies). The time-invariant component was generally the main contributor to the total spatial variance of soil moisture and it was mostly controlled by the groundwater levels in the area. Nevertheless, the time variant terms have a huge effect on soil moisture variability in very dry states. Characteristic convex time-dependent patterns for this field site were found between spatially averaged soil moisture and its variability. This information could be used for the up and downscaling of soil moisture from satellite data. Those patterns of relation between spatial mean and variability of soil moisture were only affected by heavy rainfalls giving rise to hysteretic behaviour. This study shows that even though groundwater level is a time-variant variable, it significantly affects soil moisture's time-variant but also time-invariant terms due to the different average groundwater level depths at the different sites.