Low-cost volcano surveillance from space: case studies from Etna, Krafla, Cerro Negro, Fogo, Lascar and Erebus

 Satellite data offer a means of supplementing ground-based monitoring during volcanic eruptions, especially at times or locations where ground-based monitoring is difficult. Being directly and freely available several times a day, data from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) offers great potential for near real-time monitoring of all volcanoes across large (3000×3000 km) areas. Herein we describe techniques to detect and locate activity; estimate lava area, thermal flux, effusion rates and cumulative volume; and distinguish types of activity. Application is demonstrated using data for active lavas at Krafla, Etna, Fogo, Cerro Negro and Erebus; a pyroclastic flow at Lascar; and open vent systems at Etna and Stromboli. Automated near real-time analysis of AVHRR data could be achieved at existing, or cheap to install, receiving stations, offering a supplement to conventional monitoring methods. Received: 21 January 1997 / Accepted: 3 April 1997     

Simulations of deep pencil-beam redshift surveys

We create mock pencil-beam redshift surveys from very large cosmological N -body simulations of two cold dark matter (CDM) cosmogonies, an Einstein–de Sitter model ( τ CDM) and a flat model with Ω₀=0.3 and a cosmological constant (ΛCDM). We use these to assess the significance of the apparent periodicity discovered by Broadhurst et al. Simulation particles are tagged as 'galaxies' so as to reproduce observed present-day correlations. They are then identified along the past light-cones of hypothetical observers to create mock catalogues with the geometry and the distance distribution of the Broadhurst et al. data. We produce 1936 (2625) quasi-independent catalogues from our τ CDM (ΛCDM) simulation. A couple of large clumps in a catalogue can produce a high peak at low wavenumbers in the corresponding one-dimensional power spectrum, without any apparent large-scale periodicity in the original redshift histogram. Although the simulated redshift histograms frequently display regularly spaced clumps, the spacing of these clumps varies between catalogues and there is no 'preferred' period over our many realizations. We find only a 0.72 (0.49) per cent chance that the highest peak in the power spectrum of a τ CDM (ΛCDM) catalogue has a peak-to-noise ratio higher than that in the Broadhurst et al. data. None of the simulated catalogues with such high peaks shows coherently spaced clumps with a significance as high as that of the real data. We conclude that in CDM universes, the regularity on a scale of ∼130  h ⁻¹ Mpc observed by Broadhurst et al. has a priori probability well below 10⁻³.     

Dynamical and compositional assessment of near‐Earth object mission targets

Abstract— Using an H‐plot analysis, we identify 234 currently known near‐Earth objects that are accessible for rendezvous with a “best case” delta‐V of less than 7 km/s. We provide a preliminary compositional interpretation and assessment of these potential targets by summarizing the taxonomic properties for 44 objects. Results for one‐half (22) of this sample are based on new spectroscopic measurements presented here. Our approach provides an easy‐to‐update method for giving guidelines to both observers and mission analysts for focusing on objects for which actual mission opportunities are most likely to be found. Observing prospects are presented for categorizing the taxonomic properties of the most accessible targets that are not yet measured.     

Depositional and post‐depositional history of warm stage deposits at Knocknacran,Co. Monaghan,Ireland: implications for preservation of Irish last interglacial deposits

Organic‐rich deposits, uncovered during overburden removal from mantled gypsum karst at Knocknacran opencast gypsum mine, Co. Monaghan, are the best candidate to date for a last interglacial record in Ireland. The two till and organic‐rich deposits (preserved at different quarry elevations) were emplaced on to a Tertiary dolerite surface during high‐energy flood events and subsequently folded and faulted by movement towards sinkholes in underlying gypsum. Uranium–thorium disequilibrium dating suggests that the organic‐rich deposits in the upper section were hydrologically isolated at ca. 41 ka and those in the lower section at ca. 86 ka. Interpretation of the pollen content, although tentative because of the depositional and post‐depositional history of the material, suggests that the organic material originated in a warm stage possibly warmer than the post‐Eemian interstadials. The unusual setting of preservation may indicate that in situ, last interglacial deposits have generally been removed by erosion in Ireland. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is the Kolmogoroff model applicable to large-scale turbulence?

We discuss the difficulties encountered when the Heisenberg-Kolmogoroff model for turbulence is applied to the large-scale turbulence in: (A) molecular clouds (specifically the velocity vs size relationship) and (B) stars (specifically, the estimate of convective fluxes).A new model for large-scale turbulence is, therefore, needed.     

Gravitational collapse of a dust ball — The external observer's point of view

The problem of collapse of a dust ball has been studied in detail from the point of view of an external observer (O). It is seen that although there is no material pressure from the point of view of the comoving observer, there is a non-vanishing material pressure in the ball from the point of view of O. In the early stages of collapse (w.r.t. O), this pressure is positive everywhere inside the ball, while during the later stages, if one goes outwards from the centre towards the surface of the ball, this pressure is negative up to a certain value of the radial coordinate, and then changes its sign thereafter. On the basis of this pressure, one can understand the physics of the whole scenario of collapse w.r.t. O; in particular, the important feature is that in the ultimate stages an event horizon is formed asymptotically and there is no collapse to a point (as takes place from the point of view of the comoving observer).     

On the R z -sunspot relative number variations

The Zürich sunspot relative number R _z series has been analysed by the cyclogram method. The amplitude and the frequency variations of the Fourier 11 yr component between 1700–1983 A.D., were determined in a continuous way.Four distinct time intervals with significantly different characteristics of the periodicities are observed and discussed.Their second harmonics are also considered. The periodicity changes are contemporary to those of the 11 yr cycles.Around the year 1903 it seems that an important event has happened in the Sun. In fact the 11.4 yr cycle periodicity, that was very stable since at least 1825 started to change gradually to smaller values and similarly it happened to the second harmonic which also stopped and abruptly changed of phase of 90°.     

Study on numerical simulation to water lowering in an open coal mine digging

In view of the situation of excavation of open coal mine for the underground water disaster,we should carry out simulation studies for the numerical value of the water lowering project and improve the accuracy and the level of the water lowering project.On the basis of the hydrological geological conditions of certain open mine digging,a more reasonable seepage numerical model was built according to MODFLOW.It was simulated in advance that the process of the confined water level descending with the time,and combining with the actual observations to test the correctness of the model.The calculation showed that the results coincided well with the results of actual measurement.Based on this,different water lowering numerical simulations were built for the open coal mine digging.It could be simulated and forecast that the changes of the groundwater level in drainage process within and outside the mine pit,and it was quantitatively assessed that the possible water lowering result of the opencast water drainage process,which provide an important basis for the actual water lowering project and the possible project disposal.