Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Numerical simulation of migration–accumulation of oil resources

Numerical simulation of oil migration and accumulation is to describe the history of oil migration and accumulation in basin evolution. It is of great value to the evaluation of oil resources and to the determination of the location and amount of oil deposits. This thesis discusses the characteristics of petroleum geology and permeation fluid mechanics. For the three-dimensional problems of Dongying hollow of Shengli Petroleum Oil Field, it puts forward a new model and a kind of modified method of upwind finite difference fractional steps implicit interactive scheme. For the famous hydraulic experiment of secondary migration–accumulation, the numerical simulation test has been done, and both the computational and experimental results are basically identical. For the actual problem of Dongying hollow, the numerical simulation test and the actual conditions are basically coincident. Thus, the well-known problem has been solved.     

A continuous/discontinuous Galerkin framework for modeling coupled subsurface and surface water flow

We consider conjunctive surface-subsurface flow modeling, where surface water flow is described by the shallow water equations and ground water flow by Richards’ equation for the vadose zone. Coupling between the models is based on the continuity of flux and water pressure. Numerical approximation of the coupled model using the framework of discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods is formulated. In the subsurface, the local discontinuous Galerkin (LDG) method is used to approximate ground water velocity and hydraulic head; a DG method is also used to approximate surface water velocity and elevation. This approach allows for a weak coupling of the models and the use of different approximating spaces and/or meshes within each regime. A simplified LDG method based on continuous approximations to water head is also described. Numerical results that investigate physical and numerical aspects of surface–subsurface flow modeling are presented. This work was supported by National Science Foundation grant DMS-0411413.     

A coupling of mixed and discontinuous Galerkin finite-element methods for poroelasticity

In this paper, we formulate a finite-element procedure for approximating the coupled fluid and mechanics in Biot’s consolidation model of poroelasticity. We approximate the flow variables by a mixed finite-element space and the displacement by a family of discontinuous Galerkin methods. Theoretical convergence error estimates are derived and, in particular, are shown to be independent of the constrained specific storage coefficient, c _o . This suggests that our proposed algorithm is a potentially effective way to combat locking, or the nonphysical pressure oscillations, which sometimes arise in numerical algorithms for poroelasticity.     

Artificial neural network and liquefaction susceptibility assessment: a case study using the 2001 Bhuj earthquake data,Gujarat, India

This study pertains to prediction of liquefaction susceptibility of unconsolidated sediments using artificial neural network (ANN) as a prediction model. The backpropagation neural network was trained, tested, and validated with 23 datasets comprising parameters such as cyclic resistance ratio (CRR), cyclic stress ratio (CSR), liquefaction severity index (LSI), and liquefaction sensitivity index (LSeI). The network was also trained to predict the CRR values from LSI, LSeI, and CSR values. The predicted results were comparable with the field data on CRR and liquefaction severity. Thus, this study indicates the potentiality of the ANN technique in mapping the liquefaction susceptibility of the area.     

Groundwater resources in the Jabal Al Hass region,northwest Syria: an assessment of past use and future potential

In many cases, the development of groundwater resources to boost agricultural production in dry areas has led to a continuous decline in groundwater levels; this has called into question the sustainability of such exploitation. In developing countries, limited budgets and scarce hydrological data often do not allow groundwater resources to be assessed through groundwater modeling. A case study is presented of a low-cost water-balance approach to groundwater resource assessments in a 1,550 km² semi-arid region in northwestern Syria. The past development of irrigated agriculture and its effect on the groundwater system were studied by analysis of Landsat images and long-term groundwater level changes, respectively. All components of the groundwater balance were determined. Groundwater recharge was estimated using the chloride mass balance method. Over the past three decades, groundwater levels have declined, on average, 23 m, coinciding with a two-fold increase in the groundwater-irrigated area. Groundwater resources are currently depleted by a value that lies between 9.5×10⁶ and 118×10⁶ m³ year^?1, which is larger than can be compensated for by a future decrease in natural discharge or changes in boundary conditions. However, groundwater resources are likely to be sufficient to supply domestic and livestock needs in the area.     

Fractional crystallization models and B–Be–Li systematics at Mt Somma-Vesuvius volcano (Southern Italy)

A compilation of B–Be–Li data on rocks that cover the entire eruptive history of Somma-Vesuvius is presented and interpreted in the light of evolution models for the Somma-Vesuvius rocks. Using major and trace element data, fractional crystalllization models are presented for different geochemical units. These data were used to constrain the source mineralogy of the Somma-Vesuvius rocks (ol-opx-cpx-gar-amp of 0.4-0.3-0.1-0.1-0.1), the amount of sediment added (5–10%) and the melt fraction from batch partial melting computations (0.05–0.1). From the B–Li data it is inferred that the main process responsible for the B isotopic signature is sediment recycling. However, the B–Li data show a major variation in Li abundances respect to B which is explained with Li dehydration before the fluid enriched the mantle wedge that produced the arc magmas. The Somma-Vesuvius B isotope composition is intermediate between that of the Campi Flegrei and the broad field of the Eolian Island arc. A low Be isotopes in the recent volcanic rocks can be explained as: (a) the top 1–22 m of the incoming sediment is accreted, (b) large amounts of sediment erosion, (c) a slow rate of subduction which have provoked a long magmatic history for the Vesuvius magma, (d) the sediment component takes several Myr longer than the subducting plate to reach the magma source region beneath Italy.     

Lake bank filtration at Nainital,India: water-quality evaluation

There are different water-supply schemes in Uttarakhand, India to tap the water from streams, rivers and lakes. At Nainital, seven tube-wells (depths 22.6–36.7 m), located at a distance of <100 m from the lake, are being used to abstract (1) lake water after passage through the soil and (2) subsurface water/groundwater flowing towards the lake. Water samples from the lake and tube-wells were analyzed in monsoon and non-monsoon periods from 1997 to 2006. Total dissolved solids, EC, alkalinity and hardness were found to be marginally greater in tube-well waters. The difference in hydrochemistry of tube-well water was mainly due to variation in flow regimes during monsoon and non-monsoon periods. Results clearly indicate that lake water as such is not potable as it contains unacceptable levels of organic matter in terms of COD (~44 mg/L), coliforms (~15.6 × 10⁴ MPN/100 mL) and nutrients. Coliform bacteria and COD have not been detected in any of the tube-well water samples over the years. Lake water, treated by sand filters did not conform to drinking water standards. These investigations have led to the closure of the treatment facility and installation of two tube-wells in addition to the existing five tube-wells.

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Résumé  Il existe divers projets d’alimentation en eau dans l’état d’Uttarakhand, Inde, afin de capter l’eau de ruisseaux, de rivières et de lacs. A Nainital, sept puits tubés (profondeur de 22.6–36.7 m), situés à une distance < à 100 m du lac, sont utilisés pour prélever (1) de l’eau du lac après transit à travers le sol et (2) de l’eau de sub-surface/eau souterraine s’écoulant vers le lac. Des échantillons d’eau du lac et des puits tubés ont été analysés en périodes de mousson et de celles sans mousson 1997 à 2006. Résidu sec, C.E., alcalinité et dureté ont été trouvés marginalement supérieurs dans l’eau des puits tubés. La différence d’hydrochimie de l’eau des puits tubés était surtout due à la variation des régimes d’écoulement pendant les périodes de mousson et de celles sans mousson. Les résultats indiquent clairement que l’eau du lac en tant que telle n’est pas potable car elle contient des teneurs inacceptables de matière organique en termes de COD (~44 mg/L), de coliformes (~15.6 × 10⁴ MPN/100 mL) et d’éléments nutritifs. Des bactéries coliformes et du COD n’ont été détectés dans aucun des échantillons d’eau de puits tubés au fil des années. L’eau du lac traitée par des filtres à sable ne se conformait pas aux normes de l’eau potable. Ces recherches ont conduit à la fermeture de l’installation de traitement et à l’implantation de deux puits tubés en plus des cinq puits existants.

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Resumen  En el estado de Uttarakhand, India, existen diferentes esquemas de abastecimiento de agua que explotan agua de arroyos, ríos y lagos. En Nainital, siete pozos (profundidades entre 22.6–36.7 m), ubicados a una distancia de <100 m del lago, se usan para extraer (1) agua del lago luego de su pasaje a través del suelo y (2) agua superficial y subterránea que fluye hacia el lago. En períodos de monzón y de no monzón de 1997 a 2006 se han analizado muestras de agua del lago y de las captaciones. Se halló que el agua de los pozos es ligeramente mayor en términos del total de sólidos disueltos, la conductividad eléctrica, la alcalinidad y la dureza. La diferencia en la hidroquímica del agua de las perforaciones se debe principalmente a la variación de los regímenes de flujo durante los períodos de monzón y de no monzón. Los resultados claramente indican que el agua del lago no es potable por su contenido inaceptable de materia orgánica medida como demanda de carbono orgánico/oxígeno –DCO- (~44 mg/L), coliformes (~15.6 × 10⁴ NMP/100 mL) y nutrientes. En el período, no se han detectado bacterias coliformes ni DCO en las muestras de agua de las captaciones. El agua del lago, tratada con filtros de arena, no conformó los estándares de agua para bebida. Estas investigaciones han demostrado la necesidad de clausurar las instalaciones de tratamiento y la adición de dos captaciones a las cinco ya existentes.

     

Provenance of late Palaeozoic metasediments of the Patagonian proto-Pacific margin (southernmost Chile and Argentina)

In this provenance study of late Palaeozoic metasediments of the Eastern Andean Metamorphic Complex (EAMC) along the south Patagonian proto-Pacific margin of Gondwana, the palaeogeological setting of the continental margin in Devonian–Carboniferous and Permian times is reconstructed. The study is based on detrital heavy mineral contents, chemical compositions of tourmaline grains, and whole rock element and Nd-Sr isotopic compositions. Element and isotopic compositions reveal that Devonian–Carboniferous metaturbidites deposited before the development of a Late Carboniferous–Permian magmatic arc along the margin were mainly fed from felsic, recycled, old continental rocks. The last recycling phase involved erosion of metasediments that were exposed in Patagonia. Feeder systems to the basin cut either through epidote-rich or garnet-rich metasediments. In Permian time, EAMC metaturbidites were deposited next to the evolving magmatic arc and were derived from felsic, crustal rocks. Two provenance domains are recognised. The metasediments of the northern one are chemically similar to those of the Devonian–Carboniferous metasediments. This domain was fed from the metasedimentary host rocks of the magmatic arc. The southern domain probably was fed from the arc proper, as indicated mainly by the dominance of metaplutonic lithic fragments, abundant detrital biotite, and the major element composition of the metasediments.