Time independent seismic hazard analysis in Alborz and surrounding area

The Bayesian probability estimation seems to have efficiencies that make it suitable for calculating different parameters of seismicity. Generally this method is able to combine prior information on seismicity while at the same time including statistical uncertainty associated with the estimation of the parameters used to quantify seismicity, in addition to the probabilistic uncertainties associated with the inherent randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this article a time-independent Bayesian approach, which yields the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude will be exceeded at certain time intervals is examined for the region of Alborz, Iran, in order to consider the following consequences for the city of Tehran. This area is located within the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Many active faults affect the Alborz, most of which are parallel to the range and accommodate the present day oblique convergence across it. Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants is located near the foothills of the southern Central Alborz. This region has been affected several times by historical and recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment through it. As the first step in this study an updated earthquake catalog is compiled for the Alborz. Then, by assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes which occur at a certain time interval, the probabilistic earthquake occurrence is computed by the Bayesian approach. The highest probabilities are found for zone AA and the lowest probabilities for zones KD and CA, meanwhile the overall probability is high.     

Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.     

A non-hydrostatic model for the numerical study of landslide-generated waves

This paper proposes and demonstrates a two-layer depth-averaged model with non-hydrostatic pressure correction to simulate landslide-generated waves. Landslide (lower layer) and water (upper layer) motions are governed by the general shallow water equations derived from mass and momentum conservation laws. The landslide motion and wave generation/propagation are separately formulated, but they form a coupled system. Our model combines some features of the landslide analysis model DAN3D and the tsunami analysis model COMCOT and adds a non-hydrostatic pressure correction. We use the new model to simulate a 2007 rock avalanche-generated wave event at Chehalis Lake, British Columbia, Canada. The model results match both the observed distribution of the rock avalanche deposit in the lake and the wave run-up trimline along the shoreline. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the importance of accounting for the non-hydrostatic dynamic pressure at the landslide-water interface, as well as the influence of the internal strength of the landslide on the size of the generated waves. Finally, we compare the numerical results of landslide-generated waves simulated with frictional and Voellmy rheologies. Similar maximum wave run-ups can be obtained using the two different rheologies, but the frictional model better reproduces the known limit of the rock avalanche deposit and is thus considered to yield the best overall results in this particular case.     

Floodgate Operations and Fish Communities in Tidal Creeks of the Lower Fraser River (British Columbia,Canada)

Tidal creeks in large coastal deltas can be important habitat for fish but are often highly modified by human activities. Connectivity between tributary creeks and mainstem channels is often constrained by structures such as dikes and floodgates, designed to protect urban and agricultural areas from flooding. While they play important roles in flood mitigation, floodgates can diminish habitat quality and block fish from accessing tidal creeks. It is likely that floodgates differ in their operations and may consequently open for different amounts of time; however, floodgate operations and their effects are not well quantified. We asked the question: how does the mechanical functioning of these floodgates affect fish communities in tidal creeks? We used time-lapse cameras and quantified the timing of gate openings for 22 tributaries of the Lower Fraser River in British Columbia, Canada, and related these operational data to differences in fish communities above and below floodgates. Floodgate operations varied substantially, with some floodgates opening daily while others opened less than 20% of the day, on average. Sites with floodgates that seldom opened were associated with greater differences in fish communities and with reduced upstream native species richness by about one species on average. Where floodgates opened infrequently, we also found lower upstream dissolved oxygen concentrations than at sites where floodgates opened for longer periods of time. Thus, floodgate operations can influence fish communities as well as water quality. These data indicate a large scope for improving floodgate operations for connectivity.     

Investigation of monotonic and cyclic behavior of sand using a bounding surface plasticity model

Developing the pore water pressures in loose to medium sands below the water table may lead to liquefaction during earthquakes. The simulation of liquefaction (cyclic mobility and flow liquefaction) in sandy soils is one of the major challenges in constitutive modeling of soils. This paper presents the simulation of sand behavior using a critical state bounding surface plasticity model (Dafalias and Manzari’s model, 2004) during monotonic and cyclic loading. The drained, undrained, and cyclic triaxial tests were simulated using Dafalias and Manzari’s model. The simulation results showed that the model predicts behavior of sand, reasonably well. Also, for CSR?<?0.2, number of cycles for liquefaction is significantly increased. The residual strength of Babolsar sand is produced when it is deformed to an axial strain of 20 to 25%.     

A Leaky-Conduit Model of Transient Flow in Karstic Aquifers

Karst Flow Model (KFM) simulates transient flow in an unconfined karstic aquifer having a well-developed conduit system. KFM treats the springshed as a two-dimensional porous matrix containing a triangulated irregular network of leaky conduits. The number and location of conduits can be specified arbitrarily, perhaps using field information as a guide, or generated automatically. Conduit networks can be tree-like or braided. Rainwater that has infiltrated down from the surface leaks into the conduits from the adjacent porous matrix at a rate dictated by Darcy’s law, then flows turbulently to the spring via the conduits. KFM is calibrated using the known steady state; geometry and recharge determine the steady fluxes in the conduits, and the head distribution determines conduit gradients and sizes. Spring flow can vary with time due to spatially and temporally variable recharge and due to prescribed variations in the elevation of the spring. KFM is illustrated by four examples run on a test aquifer consisting of 27 nodes, 42 elements, and 26 conduits. Three examples (drought, uniform rainstorm, storm-water input to one element) are simulations, while the fourth uses data from a spring-basin flooding event. The qualitative fit between the predicted and observed spring discharge in the fourth example provides support of the hypothesis that the dynamic behavior of a karst conduit system is an emergent property of a self-organized system, largely independent of the locations and properties of individual conduits.     

Role of Crystal Interlocking on the Strength of Brittle Rocks

Results of an experimental programme on heterogeneous rock-like specimens of dental plaster confirm the pronounced role of tensile microcracks on brittle failure. Microbuckling of very small rock-columns formed amid closely located tensile cracks was observed as the key incident connecting stable phenomenon of tensile cracking to unstable phenomenon of shearing and subsequent macroscopic failure. Using the classical beam and buckling theories and considering geometry of the problem a new failure criterion is proposed. As a novel attempt, this new failure criterion relates the compressive strength of rock to three basic microstructural properties, i.e. degree of crystal interlocking, average Young modulus and average tensile strength of rock forming minerals.     

Identifying saline wetlands in an arid desert climate using Landsat remote sensing imagery. Application on Ouargla Basin,southeastern Algeria

Supervised and unsupervised satellite image classifications have progressed greatly in recent years. However, discrimination difficulties still remain among classes that directly affecting data extraction and surface mapping accuracy. The Ouargla region in southeastern Algeria is intersected by wadis, where direct communication between the shallow groundwater table and these dry, overlying ephemeral stream beds exists. Underflowing groundwater exfiltrates into low-lying aeolian blowouts or endorheic basins forming oases, chotts, and sebkhas, commonly known as saline wetlands. These wetlands are becoming increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic stress, resulting in significant water degradation. Wetland microclimates are very important to arid regions, as they promote oasis ecosystem sustainability and preservation. High water salinity in these ecosystems, however, directly affects flourishing habitat and undermines successful desert oasis development. The objective of this work is to choose the best classification method to identify saline wetlands by comparison between the different results of land use mapping within the Ouargla basin. Landsat ETM+ (2000) satellite imagery, using visual analysis with colored compositions, has identified various forms of saline wetlands in the Ouargla region desert environment in southeast Algeria. The results show that supervised classification is validated in the identification of Saharan saline wetlands, and that support vector machine (SVM) algorithm presents the best overall accuracy.     

钇易解石族的端员—钛钇易解石的发现

本矿物为新发现的钇易解石族的端员矿物－钛钇易解石，产于江西省龙南县足洞燕山期中粒白云母花岗岩及其风化壳中。矿物属斜方晶系，常呈板状或短柱状，为天然晶质体，浅黄色，粒度为０．０７５ｍｍ，硬度４．７，比重４．７３，二轴正晶，Ｎｇ＝２．２４８，Ｎｍ＝２．２１２，Ｎｐ＝２．１９４，Ｎｇ－Ｎｐ＝０．０５４，２Ｖ＝７０°。空间群为Ｄ＾１６２ｈ－Ｐｍｎｂ，ａ０＝０．７５０ｎｍ，ｂ０＝１．０９２ｎｍ，Ｃ０＝０．５     

Effects of an Omnivorous Katydid,Salinity, and Nutrients on a Planthopper-<Emphasis Type="Italic">Spartina</Emphasis> Food Web

Top–down and bottom–up effects interact to structure communities, especially in salt marshes, which contain strong gradients in bottom–up drivers such as salinity and nutrients. How omnivorous consumers respond to variation in prey availability and plant quality is poorly understood. We used a mesocosm experiment to examine how salinity, nutrients, an omnivore (the katydid Orchelimum fidicinium) and an herbivore (the planthopper Prokelisia spp.) interacted to structure a simplified salt marsh food web based on the marsh grass Spartina alterniflora. Bottom–up effects were strong, with both salinity and nutrients decreasing leaf C/N and increasing Prokelisia abundance. Top–down effects on plants were also strong, with both the herbivore and the omnivore affecting S. alterniflora traits and growth, especially when nutrients or salt were added. In contrast, top–down control by Orchelimum of Prokelisia was independent of bottom–up conditions. Orchelimum grew best on a diet containing both Spartina and Prokelisia, and in contrast to a sympatric omnivorous crab, did not shift to an animal-based diet when prey were present, suggesting that it is constrained to consume a mixed diet. These results suggest that the trophic effects of omnivores depend on omnivore behavior, dietary constraints, and ability to suppress lower trophic levels, and that omnivorous katydids may play a previously unrecognized role in salt marsh food webs.