Control of Cambrian evaporites on fracturing in fault-related anticlines in the Zagros fold-and-thrust belt

Orientation and distribution of fractures in the Oligocene–Early Miocene Asmari Formation (a major reservoir rock of the Zagros petroleum system) were investigated in two anticlines of the Zagros fold-and-thrust belt. The Sim and Kuh-e-Asmari anticlines developed in the areas of the Zagros characterized by the occurrence and absence of Cambrian evaporites at the bottom of the stratigraphic pile, respectively. The aim was to outline major differences in terms of fracture spacing and saturation. Organic matter maturity and clay minerals-based geothermometers suggest that the depth of deformation for the top of the Asmari Formation in the Kuh-e-Asmari anticline was in the range of 1.5–2.7 km assuming a geothermal gradient of 22.5 °C/km. The Asmari Formation in the Sim anticline probably experienced a slightly deeper sedimentary burial (maximum 3 km) with a geothermal gradient of 20 °C/km. The spacing of fractures is generally 2–3 times larger (i.e., strain accommodated by fracturing is smaller) in the Sim anticline than in the Kuh-e-Asmari anticline. This is consistent with regional geological studies, analogue, and numerical models that suggest that thrust faults geometry and related folds are markedly different in the absence or presence of a weak decòllement (evaporites). The larger spacing in the Sim anticline is also consistent with higher temperature predicted for the Asmari Formation in this area. By contrast, the orientation of fractures with respect to the fold axes is the same in both anticlines. The fracture systems are rather immature in both anticlines. The amount and density of fractures in the twofolds are controlled by regional (occurrence/absence of salt and probably different burial), rather than local features (fold geometry).     

Metal fractionation and pollution risk assessment of different sediment sizes in three major southwestern rivers of Caspian Sea

To assess the risk of release and percentage of heavy metals in river sediment, nine stations were set up to sample surface sediments from three important rivers situated southwest of the Caspian Sea (the Shafaroud, Karaganroud, and Choubar Rivers). Chemical analyses were conducted on sediment with particle sizes of >38, 63–38, 63–125, 125–250, 250–500 and 500–1000 µm using metal fractionation to determine the degree of risk release and the heavy metal pollution. Common risk indices were used including the cumulative indices of pollution intensity assessment and risk release standards (the modified pollution degree and ecological risk). Generally, when sediment sizes are decreased, the concentration of heavy metals is both larger and greater than the mean concentration of global sediments and earth crust. However, in this research, the concentration of all the metals did not necessarily increase with a decrease in the size of particles. In fact, concentration of cobalt, vanadium, cadmium, and chromium was greater in sediment particle sizes over 63 μm. The results of chemical fractionation analyses indicated that the release risk of metals has two initial phases for: (1) exchangeable bond (F1) and (2) carbonated bond (F2). When compared with other metals, nickel had the greatest tendency to bond within the loose exchangeable phase (F1) across all the stations. Furthermore, with changes in the size of particles, the percentage of heavy metal changes across different bond phases, but will be the greatest in the loose exchangeable phase (F1). This was observed with cobalt, nickel, and chromium at particle sizes larger than 63 μm. The results of ecological risk and modified pollution degree indices indicated that the highest level of pollution was related to sediments with sizes between 63 and 250 μm. Eventually, in order to assess the risk extent of metals present in sediment, a cumulative index referred to as the modified risk assessment code was utilized. It suggested that the greatest risk of toxicity in some stations has been related to particles larger than 63 μm.     

The accountability imperative for quantifying the uncertainty of emission forecasts: evidence from Mexico

Governmental climate change mitigation targets are typically developed with the aid of forecasts of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. The robustness and credibility of such forecasts depends, among other issues, on the extent to which forecasting approaches can reflect prevailing uncertainties. We apply a transparent and replicable method to quantify the uncertainty associated with projections of gross domestic product growth rates for Mexico, a key driver of GHG emissions in the country. We use those projections to produce probabilistic forecasts of GHG emissions for Mexico. We contrast our probabilistic forecasts with Mexico’s governmental deterministic forecasts. We show that, because they fail to reflect such key uncertainty, deterministic forecasts are ill-suited for use in target-setting processes. We argue that (i) guidelines should be agreed upon, to ensure that governmental forecasts meet certain minimum transparency and quality standards, and (ii) governments should be held accountable for the appropriateness of the forecasting approach applied to prepare governmental forecasts, especially when those forecasts are used to derive climate change mitigation targets.

POLICY INSIGHTS

• No minimum transparency and quality standards exist to guide the development of GHG emission scenario forecasts, not even when these forecasts are used to set national climate change mitigation targets.

• No accountability mechanisms appear to be in place at the national level to ensure that national governments rely on scientifically sound processes to develop GHG emission scenarios.

• Using probabilistic forecasts to underpin emission reduction targets represents a scientifically sound option for reflecting in the target the uncertainty to which those forecasts are subject, thus increasing the validity of the target.

• Setting up minimum transparency and quality standards, and holding governments accountable for their choice of forecasting methods could lead to more robust emission reduction targets nationally and, by extension, internationally.

     

Near-source strong motion database catalog for Iran

This paper discusses a newly developed high-quality integrated dataset of shallow earthquake ground motions that occurred in Iran, from 1976 to 2013. A total of 860 three-component strong motion records are processed from 183 earthquake events, moment magnitudes 5.0?≤?M _w ?≤?7.4, and rupture distances of R _RUP  ≤ 120 km. Strong motion data from Iran having special tectonic features and shallow earthquakes with depths less than 35 km are included. This paper presents a thorough procedure used to collect and to generate a database following the Next-Generation Attenuation-West research projects. This database can be used in the development and ranking of ground motion models and for seismological and engineering hazard and risk analyses. Unprocessed strong motion records are obtained from the Iranian Strong Motion Network (ISMN). The time series collected were thoroughly examined through several rounds of quality reviews. The newly generated database includes the peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and pseudo-spectral acceleration for the 5% damped with periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. The database also includes ground motion information and source characterization and parameters. This study is the near-source compiled ground motion database that can be used for Iran, and it is consistent with standard worldwide databases.     

Optimal Allocation of Water Resources Using a Two-Stage Stochastic Programming Method with Interval and Fuzzy Parameters

Natural Resources Research - Efficient water allocation is one of the most prominent issues in water resources management. In this research, a two-stage interval-parameter stochastic fuzzy...     

Phenolic endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in Anzali Wetland, Iran: elevated concentrations of 4-nonylphenol, octhylphenol and bisphenol A

We have studied the distribution and value of phenolic endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in surface sediment samples taken from Anzali Wetland, Iran. These samples were collected from 22 stations during the time span of June-May 2010. In each of the sampling stations, we detected 4-nonylphenol (4-NP), octylphenol (OP), and bisphenol A (BPA) with maximal concentrations of 29, 4.3, and 7 μg g(-1) dry weight (dw), respectively. High levels of alkylphenols (APs) and BPA were also found near urban areas. Furthermore there were no significant differences between those stations in terms of the detected levels. One of the important factors in controlling the fate of these compounds in the aquatic environment appeared to be Total Organic Carbon (TOC). Hierarchical cluster analysis showed differences in the biomarker characteristics of EDCs and TOC between the stations. Our findings indicate that EDCs are ubiquitous in sediments from northeast Wetlands of Iran, contaminating the aquatic habitats in this area.     

Sustainable soil stabilisation with ground granulated blast-furnace slag activated by olivine and sodium hydroxide

Acta Geotechnica - Ground granulated blast-furnace slag (GGBS), activated with olivine (Mg2SiO4) and sodium hydroxide (NaOH), was used to stabilise a clayey soil. Mechanical and microstructural...     

Near-source attenuation of high-frequency body waves beneath the New Madrid Seismic Zone

Attenuation characteristics in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) are estimated from 157 local seismograph recordings out of 46 earthquakes of 2.6?≤?M?≤?4.1 with hypocentral distances up to 60 km and focal depths down to 25 km. Digital waveform seismograms were obtained from local earthquakes in the NMSZ recorded by the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) at the University of Memphis. Using the coda normalization method, we tried to determine Q values and geometrical spreading exponents at 13 center frequencies. The scatter of the data and trade-off between the geometrical spreading and the quality factor did not allow us to simultaneously derive both these parameters from inversion. Assuming 1/R ^1.0 as the geometrical spreading function in the NMSZ, the Q _P and Q _S estimates increase with increasing frequency from 354 and 426 at 4 Hz to 729 and 1091 at 24 Hz, respectively. Fitting a power law equation to the Q estimates, we found the attenuation models for the P waves and S waves in the frequency range of 4 to 24 Hz as Q _P?=?(115.80?±?1.36) f ^{(0.495?±?0.129)} and Q _S?=?(161.34?±?1.73) f ^{(0.613?±?0.067)}, respectively. We did not consider Q estimates from the coda normalization method for frequencies less than 4 Hz in the regression analysis since the decay of coda amplitude was not observed at most bandpass filtered seismograms for these frequencies. Q _S/Q _P?>?1, for 4?≤?f?≤?24 Hz as well as strong intrinsic attenuation, suggest that the crust beneath the NMSZ is partially fluid-saturated. Further, high scattering attenuation indicates the presence of a high level of small-scale heterogeneities inside the crust in this region.     

On the number of required response history analyses

This study investigates the number of real ground motions (GMs) required to accurately capture the structural responses when using code-, intensity-, and risk-based seismic assessment frameworks. A key consideration is the use of as-recorded hazard consistent GMs, which appropriately characterize the seismic hazard of the site, for performing response history analysis. A comparison of the structural responses of 3 steel moment resisting buildings using different sets of GMs is made with results obtained using a large set of GMs. The empirical results demonstrate that, in most cases, a risk-based assessment needs a larger number of response history analyses than an intensity-based assessment method to accurately capture the seismic demand on the structural systems. Also, given the same number of GMs, the structural responses from a risk-based assessment are more reliable and stable than those for an intensity-based method. Moreover, the results help to quantify the uncertainty in the structural responses due to using different sample sets of GMs given the applied number of GMs. In addition, the results indicate that a significant bias in structural responses is likely when following the recommendations from several seismic design codes, which suggest utilizing the maximum structural responses if 3 GM pairs are used for response history analysis. A detailed statistical analyses show that the application of 7 GM pairs are sufficient to accurately and reliably estimate structural responses.     

Effect of seismic waves on the hydro-mechanical properties of fractured rock masses

The transmission of seismic waves in a particular region may influence the hydraulic properties of a rock mass, including permeability, which is one of the most important. To determine the effect of a seismic wave on the hydraulic behavior of a fractured rock mass, systematic numerical modeling was conducted. A number of discrete fracture network(DFN) models with a size of 20 m × 20 m were used as geometrical bases, and a discrete element method(DEM) was employed as a numerical simulation tool. Three different boundary conditions without(Type Ⅰ) and with static(Type Ⅱ) and dynamic(Type Ⅲ) loading were performed on the models, and then their permeability was calculated. The results showed that permeability in Type Ⅲ models was respectively 62.7% and 44.2% higher than in Type I and Type Ⅱ models. This study indicates that seismic waves can affect deep earth, and, according to the results, seismic waves increase the permeability and change the flow rate patterns in a fractured rock mass.