Targeting carbon dioxide removal in the European Union

In principle, many climate policymakers have accepted that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement’s mitigation targets, but they have avoided proposing by whom CDR might be delivered. Given its role in international climate policy, the European Union (EU) might be expected to lead the way. But among EU climate policymakers so far there is little talk on CDR, let alone action. Here we assess how best to ‘target’ CDR to motivate EU policymakers exploring which CDR target strategy may work best to start dealing with CDR on a meaningful scale. A comprehensive CDR approach would focus on delivering the CDR volumes required from the EU by 2100, approximately at least 50 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO₂, according to global model simulations aiming to keep warming below 2°C. A limited CDR approach would focus on an intermediate target to deliver the CDR needed to reach ‘net zero emissions’ (i.e. the gross negative emissions needed to offset residual positive emissions that are too expensive or even impossible to mitigate). We argue that a comprehensive CDR approach may be too intimidating for EU policymakers. A limited CDR approach that only addresses the necessary steps to reach the (intermediate) target of ‘net zero emissions’ is arguably more achievable, since it is a better match to the existing policy paradigm and would allow for a pragmatic phase-in of CDR while avoiding outright resistance by environmental NGOs and the broader public.

Key policy insights

• Making CDR an integral part of EU climate policy has the potential to significantly reshape the policy landscape.

• Burden sharing considerations would probably play a major role, with comprehensive CDR prolonging the disparity and tensions between progressives and laggards.

• Introducing limited CDR in the context of ‘net zero’ pathways would retain a visible primary focus on decarbonization but acknowledge the need for a significant enhancement of removals via ‘natural’ and/or ‘engineered’ sinks.

• A decarbonization approach that intends to lead to a low level of ‘residual emissions’ (to be tackled by a pragmatic phase-in of CDR) should be the priority of EU climate policy.

     

Steady-state frictional geostrophic circulation in a one-layer ocean model with thermodynamics

The governing equations are developed for a steady-state frictional geostrophic inhomogeneous 1.5-layer ocean model, with horizontal velocity field that is linearly sheared in the vertical coordinate. We show that in the adiabatic, thermally non-diffusive limit there are an infinite number of solutions for the temperature and depth fields of the subtropical gyre even with the constraint of identical mass within each temperature range. In the non-adiabatic case, a unique subtropical gyre solution exists that can exhibit a temperature front, containing an unbounded meridional gradient, in the northwest corner of the solution domain. The role of mixing of enthalpy in the western boundary layer (WBL) region was investigated by comparing the two extreme cases of no mixing and complete mixing of enthalpy in this region. Also investigated was the dependence of the meridional heat transport on the air–sea heat exchange coefficient, κ. The temperature field was found to be strongly influenced by mixing. However, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the heat transport is similar in the model with and without mixing. The heat transport attains a single local maximum at κ=κ_c, that lies within values that are oceanographically relevant.     

Three-phase numerical model of water migration in partially frozen geological media: model formulation,validation, and applications

Water in the subsurface of the Earth’s cold regions—and possibly the subsurface of Mars—resides in the liquid, vapor, and ice phases. However, relatively few simulations addressing full three-phase, nonisothermal water dynamics in below-freezing porous media have been undertaken. This paper presents a nonisothermal, three-phase approach to modeling water migration in partially frozen porous media. Conservation equations for water (as ice, liquid, and vapor) and a single gas species (in the gas phase and dissolved in water) are coupled to a heat transport equation and solved by a finite-volume method with fully implicit time stepping. Particular attention is given to the method of spatial differencing when the pore space is partially filled with ice. The numerical model is able to reproduce freezing-induced water redistribution observed in laboratory experiments. Simulations of Earth permafrost dynamics and of the formation and evolution of a planetary-scale cryosphere on Mars demonstrate the new capabilities.     

中国南方湿润区红层荒漠化问题

通过回顾国内外荒漠化概念的演变和国内对荒漠化问题的研究,认为发生在湿润区和半湿润区的极端土地退化也是一种特殊的荒漠化。中国南方湿润区的红层分布区由于岩性的特殊性,在人类的不合理开发利用影响下,产生了一种特殊的土地退化现象,暂称之为红层荒漠化。作为对该问题研究的初步成果,本文提出了红层荒漠和红层荒漠化的概念,重点阐述了红层软岩区荒漠化的地貌特征、生态特征和土壤特征。然后以南雄盆地为例,分析了劣地式红层荒漠的分布特征及盆地尺度的荒漠化格局,认为红层荒漠最初以点状揭露的方式形成,然后发展为呈斑块状分布;劣地式荒漠化基本都发生在盆地中部由软岩构成的缓丘和岗地区域。在面上调查和案例地深入研究的基础上,从岩石特性、自然影响和人为干扰等方面探讨了劣地式红层荒漠化的形成机理,劣地式红层荒漠化过程的诱发因素较复杂,主要是人为影响,可概括为：粗放开垦、林地过火、旱地退化、人为取表土以及村庄内的多因素干扰。红层暴露后在自然力和人为作用下都可能发生荒漠区扩展。     

Imposex still evident in eastern Australia 10 years after tributyltin restrictions

A survey of imposex in Thais orbita (Neogastropoda) along the New South Wales (NSW) coast, Australia, found imposex was still widespread 10 years after a partial ban on tributyltin (TBT) based antifouling paints. Transplant experiments also revealed that imposex was induced in T. orbita over a period of 9 weeks in Sydney Harbour, NSW. A comparison of the imposex data with that collected shortly after the introduction of restrictions on TBT revealed a general decline in imposex frequency occurring at open coast sites, an exception being the site at South West Rocks. Sites located within harbour/bay areas did not display a decline in imposex frequency but a decline in the severity of imposex was apparent. The observed decrease in imposex values in T. orbita may reflect a general decrease of butyltin contamination within the coastal environment. However, the persistence of contamination "hotspots" within harbours and bays remains a concern.     

Evaluating sulfur dynamics during storm events for three watersheds in the northeastern USA: a combined hydrological,chemical and isotopic approach

Concerns related to climate change have resulted in an increasing interest in the importance of hydrological events such as droughts in affecting biogeochemical responses of watersheds. The effects of an unusually dry summer in 2002 had a marked impact on the biogeochemistry of three watersheds in the north‐eastern USA. Chemical, isotopic and hydrological responses with particular emphasis on S dynamics were evaluated for Archer Creek (New York), Sleepers River (Vermont) and Cone Pond (New Hampshire) watersheds. From 1 August to 14 September 2002, all three watersheds had very low precipitation (48 to 69 mm) resulting in either very low or no discharge (mean 0·015, 0·15 and 0·000 mm day^?1 for Archer Creek, Sleepers River and Cone Pond, respectively). From 15 September to 31 October 2002, there was a substantial increase in precipitation totals (212, 246 and 198 mm, respectively) with increased discharge. Archer Creek was characterized by a large range of SO₄^2? concentrations (152 to 389 µeq L^?1, mean = 273 µeq L^?1) and also exhibited the greatest range in δ³⁴S values of SO₄^2? (?1·4 to 8·8 ‰ ). Sleepers River's SO₄^2? concentrations ranged from 136 to 243 µeq L^?1 (mean = 167 µeq L^?1) and δ³⁴S values of SO₄^2? ranged from 4·0 to 9·0 ‰ . Cone Pond's SO₄^2? concentrations (126–187 µeq L^?1, mean = 154 µeq L^?1) and δ³⁴S values (2·4 to 4·3 ‰ ) had the smallest ranges of the three watersheds. The range and mean of δ¹⁸O‐SO₄^2? values for Archer Creek and Cone Pond were similar (3·0 to 8·9 ‰ , mean = 4·5 ‰ ; 3·9 to 6·3 ‰ , mean = 4·9 ‰ ; respectively) while δ¹⁸O‐SO₄^2? values for Sleepers River covered a larger range with a lower mean (1·2 to 10·0 ‰ , mean = 2·5). The difference in Sleepers River chemical and isotopic responses was attributed to weathering reactions contributing SO₄^2?. For Archer Creek wetland areas containing previously reduced S compounds that were reoxidized to SO₄^2? probably provided a substantial source of S. Cone Pond had limited internal S sources and less chemical or isotopic response to storms. Differences among the three watersheds in S biogeochemical responses during these storm events were attributed to differences in S mineral weathering contributions, hydrological pathways and landscape features. Further evaluations of differences and similarities in biogeochemical and hydrological responses among watersheds are needed to predict the impacts of climate change. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A microscale three-dimensional urban energy balance model for studying surface temperatures

A microscale three-dimensional (3-D) urban energy balance model, Temperatures of Urban Facets in 3-D (TUF-3D), is developed to predict urban surface temperatures for a variety of surface geometries and properties, weather conditions, and solar angles. The surface is composed of plane-parallel facets: roofs, walls, and streets, which are further sub-divided into identical square patches, resulting in a 3-D raster-type model geometry. The model code is structured into radiation, conduction and convection sub-models. The radiation sub-model uses the radiosity approach and accounts for multiple reflections and shading of direct solar radiation. Conduction is solved by finite differencing of the heat conduction equation, and convection is modelled by empirically relating patch heat transfer coefficients to the momentum forcing and the building morphology. The radiation and conduction sub-models are tested individually against measurements, and the complete model is tested against full-scale urban surface temperature and energy balance observations. Modelled surface temperatures perform well at both the facet-average and the sub-facet scales given the precision of the observations and the uncertainties in the model inputs. The model has several potential applications, such as the calculation of radiative loads, and the investigation of effective thermal anisotropy (when combined with a sensor-view model).     

An infrared spectroscopic study of lawsonite to 20 GPa

The infrared spectrum of CaAl₂Si₂O₇ · H₂O-lawsonite, has been characterized to pressures of 20 GPa at 300 K. Our results constrain the response to compression of the silicate tetrahedra, hydroxyl units, and water molecules in this material. The asymmetric and symmetric stretching and bending vibrations of the Si₂O₇ groups (at zero pressure frequencies between 600 and 1000 cm⁻¹) increase in frequency with pressure at rates between 3.6 and 5.9 cm⁻¹/GPa. All silicate modes appear to shift continuously with pressure to 20 GPa, although the lowest frequency stretching vibration becomes unresolvable above 18 GPa, and a splitting of the main bending vibration is observed near this pressure. The O-H stretches of the hydroxyl units exhibit a discontinuity in their mode shifts at ∼8–9 GPa, which we interpret to be produced by a pressure-induced change in hydrogen bonding. The stretching and bending vibrations of the water molecule are relatively unaffected by compression to 20 GPa, thus demonstrating that the structural cavities in which water molecules reside are relatively rigid. Significant changes in the amplitude of the O-H stretches of the hydroxyl and water units are observed at this pressure as well; nevertheless, our results demonstrate that the dominant structural units in lawsonite persist metastably at 300 K with only modest structural modifications well beyond the known stability field of this phase. Received: 10 July 1998 / Revised, accepted: 23 October 1998     

Development of the mixed conifer forest in northern New Mexico and its relationship to Holocene environmental change

Chihuahueños Bog (2925 m) in the Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico contains one of the few records of late-glacial and postglacial development of the mixed conifer forest in southwestern North America. The Chihuahueños Bog record extends to over 15,000 cal yr BP. An Artemisia steppe, then an open Picea woodland grew around a small pond until ca. 11,700 cal yr BP when Pinus ponderosa became established. C/N ratios, δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values indicate both terrestrial and aquatic organic matter was incorporated into the sediment. Higher percentages of aquatic algae and elevated C/N ratios indicate higher lake levels at the opening of the Holocene, but a wetland developed subsequently as climate warmed. From ca. 8500 to 6400 cal yr BP the pond desiccated in what must have been the driest period of the Holocene there. C/N ratios declined to their lowest Holocene levels, indicating intense decomposition in the sediment. Wetter conditions returned after 6400 cal yr BP, with conversion of the site to a sedge bog as groundwater levels rose. Higher charcoal influx rates after 6400 cal yr BP probably result from greater biomass production rates. Only minor shifts in the overstory species occurred during the Holocene, suggesting that mixed conifer forest dominated throughout the record.