Quantitative assessment of short‐term rainfall forecasts from radar nowcasts and MM5 forecasts

Short‐term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) can be achieved from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models or radar nowcasting, that is the extrapolation of the precipitation at a future time from consecutive radar scans. Hybrid forecasts obtained by merging rainfall forecasts from radar nowcasting and NWP models are potentially more skilful than either radar nowcasts or NWP rainfall forecasts alone. This paper provides an assessment of deterministic and probabilistic high‐resolution QPFs achieved by implementing the Short‐term Ensemble Prediction System developed by the UK Met Office. Both radar nowcasts and hybrid forecasts have been performed. The results show that the performance of both deterministic nowcasts and deterministic hybrid forecasts decreases with increasing rainfall intensity and spatial resolution. The results also show that the blending with the NWP forecasts improves the performance of the forecasting system. Probabilistic hybrid forecasts have been obtained through the modelling of a stochastic noise component to produce a number of equally likely ensemble members, and the comparative assessment of deterministic and probabilistic hybrid forecasts shows that the probabilistic forecasting system is characterised by a higher discrimination accuracy than the deterministic one. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Italian accelerometric archive: geological, geophysical and geotechnical investigations at strong-motion stations

Geological, geophysical and geotechnical investigations, for the characterization of the strong-motion recording sites managed by the Italian Civil Protection, have been carried out in the framework of the project “Italian strong-motion database in the period 1972–2004”. The project aimed at creating an updated database of strong-motion data acquired in Italy by different institutions in the time span 1972–2004, and at improving the quality of disseminated data. This article illustrates the state of the recording site characterization before the beginning of the project, explains the criteria adopted to select the sites where geophysical/geotechnical investigation have been performed and describes the results of the promoted field surveys.     

ERRATUM Nonlinear aspects of energy dissipation in wood-panel joints

We have found some mistakes in the article by Sara Casciati(2007).The revisions are given below: 1.The last sentence of the first paragraph in p.262 "(Casciati and Faravelli,2007)" should be changed to "(Casciati and Faravelli,1991)".     

Phenology, and seed production and germination of seven endemic Mimosa species (Fabaceae-Mimosoideae) of the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley, Mexico

We report on the phenology, seed production, and three assays (field, greenhouse and laboratory) to detect the optimal temperature for germination (OPT) and the temperature with fastest germination rate (TFASG) of seven Mimosa species, all endemic to Mexico: Mimosa adenantheroides (M. Martens and Galeotti) Benth., M. calcicola B. L. Rob., M. lacerata Rose, M. luisana Brandegee, M polyantha Benth., M. purpusii Brandegee and M. texana (A. Gray) Small var. filipes (Britton and Rose) Barneby. Flowering and fruiting take place during the wet season (May–September). Though flowering periods overlap among species, no hybrid species were found. The reproductive strategy includes a large number of seeds produced (4000–15000 per plant); however, a high percentage (30–75%) is not viable due to bruchid predation (Acanthoscelides mexicanus (Sharp) and Stator pruininus Horn). In the laboratory, OPT was established at (23°C)24°C(27–28°C) and TFASG at (20°C)25°C(30°C), with 100% of germination in six of the seven Mimosa species. In the field, the maximum germination rate (MAXG) was 92% to 100%, whereas in the greenhouse this value was 56% to 80%. Our results show that heat and moisture do not necessarily stress Mimosa seedling germination, but shade seems to be an important factor influencing germination.     

New insights on late Quaternary palaeogeographic setting in the Northern Adriatic Sea (Italy)

Sedimentological, geochemical and micropalaeontological data from sediment cores in the northwestern Adriatic Sea were obtained to reconstruct the stratigraphic framework and palaeogeographic setting during the last post‐glacial sea‐level rise (14000–6000 yr BP). Four lithostratigraphic units were identified: (a) distal plain deposits (>14000 yr BP), submerged during the first phases of marine ingression; (b) coastal lagoon system; (c) barrier‐lagoon system, which is dated back to between 10019 ± 61 and 10228 ± 174 cal. yr BP from ¹⁴C dating on peat and shell remains; (d) marine prodelta deposits (<5500 yr BP). Geochemical data allow the identification of three distinct sediment sources: River Po, River Adige and Eastern Alpine rivers characterised by decreasing Ni/Mg ratios (50–70, 8–15 and 5–10, respectively) and Ba/Al ratios of 45–55, 55–65 and 35–45, respectively. The three sources display different relative abundances in time. During the Lateglacial, the Po is the main sediment source for the southern cores, whereas the Eastern Alps and the River Adige are the main sediment sources for the northern cores. This suggests a northern position of the Po River bed compared to previous studies. Coastal drowning led to a homogenization of the provenance signal within the sediments. Only after the marine transgression does a River Po signal appear in the northern cores. At the same time, in the southern cores the signal of Eastern Alpine rivers becomes stronger. Transgressive barrier‐lagoon and recent sediments do not display a predominant signal for provenance indicators. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Facing climatic and anthropogenic changes in the Mediterranean basin: What will be the medium-term impact on water stress?

The Mediterranean basin has been identified as one of the world's most vulnerable regions to climatic and anthropogenic changes. A methodology accounting for the basin specific conditions is developed to assess the current and future water stress state of this region. The medium-term evolution of water stress is investigated using climatic scenarios and a water-use scenario based on efficiency improvements following the recommendations of the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development. Currently, the southern and eastern rims are experiencing high to severe water stress. By the 2050 horizon, a 30–50% decline in freshwater resources is simulated over most of the Mediterranean basin. While total water withdrawals would stabilize, or even decrease (10–40%), in several northern catchments, they would double in southern and eastern catchments. These changes should significantly increase water stress over the Mediterranean basin and exacerbate the disparities between rims.     

The identification of an active fault by a multidisciplinary study at the archaeological site of Sagalassos (SW Turkey)

The archaeological site of Sagalassos (SW Turkey) is located in a region characterized by the absence of any significant recent seismic activity, contrary to adjacent regions. However, the assessment of earthquake-related damage at the site suggests that the earthquakes that have been demonstrated to have struck this Pisidian city in ca. AD 500 and in the middle or second half of the 7th century AD are characterized by an MSK intensity of at least VIII and occurred on a fault very close to the city. Different investigation techniques (archaeoseismology, remote sensing and geomorphology, surface geology and structural data, 2D resistivity imaging and palaeoseismological trenching) have been applied at the archaeological site and its direct surroundings in search for the causative fault of these earthquakes. This multidisciplinary approach shows that each of the different approaches independently provides only partial, non-conclusive information with respect to the fault identification. Integration is imperative to give a conclusive answer in the search for the causative fault. This study has, indeed, revealed the existence of a to date unknown active normal fault system passing underneath ancient Sagalassos, i.e. the Sagalassos fault. A historical coseismic surface rupture event on this fault could be identified. This event possibly corresponds to the devastating Sagalassos earthquakes of ca. AD 500 and the middle or second half of the 7th century AD. Finally, this study demonstrates that in the particular geodynamic setting of SW Turkey archaeological sites with extensive earthquake-related damage form an important tool in any attempt to asses the seismic hazard.     

Urban resilience for whom,what, when,where, and why?

ABSTRACT

In academic and policy discourse, the concept of urban resilience is proliferating. Social theorists, especially human geographers, have rightfully criticized that the underlying politics of resilience have been ignored and stress the importance of asking “resilience of what, to what, and for whom?” This paper calls for careful consideration of not just resilience for whom and what, but also where, when, and why. A three-phase process is introduced to enable these “five Ws” to be negotiated collectively and to engender critical reflection on the politics of urban resilience as plans, initiatives, and projects are conceived, discussed, and implemented. Deployed through the hypothetical case of green infrastructure in Los Angeles, the paper concludes by illustrating how resilience planning trade-offs and decisions affect outcomes over space and time, often with significant implications for equity.