Changing poverty distribution in Bolivia: the role of rural–urban migration and urban services

Bolivia is a country with high levels of poverty and inequality among its peoples and regions. For the nation and its urban and rural areas, trends in the social and spatial distribution of poverty (and extreme poverty) are identified from 1976 to 2003 using UBN data with minor support where appropriate from poverty lines. The main survey between 1992 and 2001 uses composite and selected UBN to track detailed poverty change for the country’s nine departments, its ten largest cities and a selection of other smaller urban and rural municipalities. Because of rising background increases in population in the various surveyed administrative units, many instances of relative reductions in poverty are accompanied by rising absolute increases. Marked spatial variations in poverty and development in the country over the last several decades are identified as the main driver for the country’s quickening pace of rural–urban migration. As a result, the paper concludes by assessing two different but closely related views. One investigation tests the notion that because more poor people have been living in Bolivia’s cities than in its rural areas since the mid to late 1990s, rapid rural–urban migration has simply shifted the locus of poverty from the countryside to the cities in a process called, the ‘urbanisation of poverty.’ A second, more challenging, investigation assesses the view that the flow of poor rural people to the better serviced urban areas of Bolivia has actually acted to alleviate national poverty levels.     

Nonlinear aspects of energy dissipation in wood-panel joints

The joints connecting vertical and horizontal elements are the "weak link" in structural systems assembled from wood panels. If they are too weak, local failures may occur, resulting in performance that is significantly below expectations. If they are too resistant, the joints may be unable to dissipate energy during vibrations, thus possibly initiating a fast progressive failure. This paper re-processes and re-elaborates the results of shaking table tests previously carried out by the author and other co-workers. The goal is to assess the feasibility of a joint which is able to dissipate energy during vibration, without degrading the connection performance.     

新形势下林区的就业机会与渠道

我国实施“天然林保护工程”以来,林区人民积极转产分流,寻找新的就业门路和生计,为走出困境、改善生活做出了不懈的努力。为了进一步开阔视野,拓展思路,借鉴他国的经验,我们选刊了“国际森林趋势组织”的几篇关于寻找新的林区就业渠道和森林环境服务市场开发方面的研究文章,以期对我国的林业改革与建设有所启示。(注:这些文章已经“森林趋势组织”的执行主管Mivhael Jenkins先生同意译成中文在本刊刊登,本刊作了部分删节和改动。原文及参考文献请参阅森林趋势组织的网页:http://www. forest-trends. org)     

The nexus between nationally determined contributions and technology needs assessments: a global analysis

The role of technology in combatting climate change through mitigation and adaptation to its inevitable impacts has been acknowledged and highlighted by the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In the developing world, this has received particular attention through the technology needs assessment (TNA) process. As Parties put forward their national pledges to combat climate change, the scarcity of resources makes it important to assess (i) whether national processes designed to tackle climate change are working together and (ii) whether existing national processes should be terminated with the initiation of new ones. This study presents an assessment of the existing TNA process and its linkages to the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. The conclusions stem from an assessment of the TNAs completed to date, as well as 71 NDCs from developing countries at various stages of the TNA process. The analyses show that further developing the TNAs could play a vital role in filling gaps in the existing NDCs, specifically those relating to identifying appropriate technologies, their required enabling framework conditions and preparing implementation plans for their transfer and diffusion.

Key policy insights

• The full potential of the TNAs has still to be rolled out in many countries.

• Developing countries can maximize the potential of their TNAs by further developing them to explicitly analyse what is needed to implement existing NDCs, including by better aligning their focus, scope and up-to-dateness with the priority sectors included in the NDCs.

• Requests of developing countries for international assistance, through technology transfer, will be better guided by the completion of the TNA process.

• Policies for strengthening the NDCs will benefit from the results of completed, ongoing and future TNA processes.

     

A reanalysis of the relationship between strong westerlies and precipitation in the Great Plains and Midwest regions of North America

A conceptual model relating expanded or strengthened mid-latitude summer westerlies with summer precipitation patterns has been used to explain past drought events in the Great Plains and Midwest of North America, including drought between 1200 and 1400 AD. However, this relationship was originally described using 20 years of instrumental data from the mid 20{th} century, and has not been verified with modern datasets. We reinvestigated the relationship between July westerlies and precipitation in the United States using instrumental records of the last 55 years. We also investigated whether changes in summer zonal flow patterns associated with precipitation anomalies represent a shift in the latitude of peak westerly winds or an increase in wind speed, or a combination of both.Finally, we briefly compare the pattern of precipitation anomalies to paleoclimatic records of drought between 1200 and 1400 AD. Results confirm that strong westerlies are associated with a band of decreased precipitation extending from the northern Rockies into the Midwest. Changes in summer westerlies associated with these patterns are characterized by a strengthening of mean westerly winds, with only a slight southward shift of peak winds over the Atlantic. Changes in the strength of the westerlies over both the Pacific and Atlantic appear to be important to precipitation deficits in the Midwest. Proxy-climate records from 1200 to 1400 AD indicate widespread drought in the Great Plains and Midwest, consistent with the hypothesis of stronger westerlies at this time. However, drought conditions also extended to other regions of North America, indicating a more detailed understanding of the potential causes and synoptic climatology is needed.     

GENDER,RACE, AND COMMUTING AMONG SERVICE SECTOR WORKERS*

The generality that women work closer to home and have shorter commuting times than men needs to be assessed for racial groups. Statistical analysis of commuting times for a large sample of service workers in the New York metropolitan area shows that black and hispanic women commute as far as their male counterparts and their commuting times far exceed those of white men and women. Workplace factors, such as income, occupation, and job accessibility, are important in explaining these findings.     

Planning for growth in a natural resource boomtown: challenges for urban planners in Fort McMurray,Alberta

Between 2000 and 2010, the population of the city of Fort McMurray, Alberta increased by 80%, mainly due to the expansion of oil extraction projects and subsidiary industries. Population growth of this magnitude has significant consequences for city planning. While Fort McMurray struggles to keep up with enormous numbers of in-migrants, the cost of living in the city has skyrocketed. Using interviews with city planners and field experience in the city, in this paper I examine the current challenges faced by urban planners in Fort McMurray against the backdrop of global economic decision-making, corporate influence, and commodity dynamics. While the recession of 2008 gave city planners some breathing room, they still struggle with gathering accurate census information and predicting population growth, providing affordable housing, and balancing short-range planning with their long-term goals. Attempts by city planners to address these challenges could provide a contemporary model for urban planning in rapidly growing, resource-dependent communities.     

Sr-Nd-Pb isotopes from the Radicofani Volcano, Central Italy: constraints on heterogeneities in a veined mantle responsible for the shift from ultrapotassic shoshonite to basaltic andesite magmas in a post-collisional setting

The Radicofani Volcano is characterised by few lava flows, a cinder cone and a denudated neck, and is part of the Tuscan Magmatic Province, the northernmost volcanic region of the Italian peninsula. In spite of the short time span of activity, a large time-dependant chemical and isotopic variability is observed. Most of the rocks of the Radicofani volcano are ultrapotassic shoshonites associated to younger basaltic andesites, found at the bottom of the neck. K₂O contents are positively correlated with trace element and isotopic variations. Shoshonitic and high-K calc-alkaline rocks of the Radicofani volcano are significantly different from shoshonites occurring in association with leucite-bearing ultrapotassic rocks in the southernmost portion of the Roman Magmatic Province. The studied rocks are characterised by high, but variable, levels of incompatible trace elements with a subduction-related signature, with troughs at Ba, Ta, Nb, and Ti, and peaks at Cs, K, Th, U, and Pb. Initial values of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr range from 0.71333 to 0.71588, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ranges from 0.512050 to 0.512183, while the lead isotope ratios vary between 18.672 and 18.716 for ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, 15.665 to 15.696 for ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, and 39.981 to 39.081 for ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb. Ultrapotassic shoshonites show the highest incompatible trace element contents coupled with the highest ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and the lowest ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd. On the basis of geochemical and isotopic signatures it is argued that magmas were generated in a modified lithospheric peridotitic source containing metasomatic veins generated by K-rich melts from recycled sediments within the mantle via subduction. A further metasomatic event generated by slab-derived fluids pervasively enriched the peridotitic source. Partial melting of the veins produced leucite-free ultrapotassic magmas (i.e. lamproite), and was triggered by rising of the isotherms after the orogenic front migrated eastward in the Italian Peninsula. Further rise of the isotherms induced larger degrees of partial melting inducing melting of the surrounding wall peridotite. The variation of the degree of partial melting of such a heterogeneous peridotitic source produced a wide spectrum of magma compositions, which mimic a mixing line between two components: ultrapotassic magma from partial melting of the metasomatic vein and a basaltic andesitic magma from partial melting of the surrounding peridotite.     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.     

Conditions for the Formation and Maintenance of Filaments – (Invited Review)

Observational conditions for the formation and maintenance of filaments are reviewed since 1989 in the light of recent findings on their structure, chirality, inferred magnetic topology, and mass flows. Recent observations confirm the necessary conditions previously cited: (1) their location at a boundary between opposite-polarity magnetic fields (2) a system of overlying coronal loops, (3) a magnetically-defined channel beneath, (4) the convergence of the opposite-polarity network magnetic fields towards their common boundary within the channel and (5) cancellation of magnetic flux at the common polarity boundary. Evidence is put forth for three additional conditions associated with fully developed filaments: (A) field-aligned mass flows parallel with their fine structure (B) a multi-polar background source of small-scale magnetic fields necessary for the formation of the filament barbs and (C) a handedness property known as chirality which requires them to be either of two types, dextral or sinistral. One-to-one relationships have been established between the chirality of filaments and the chirality of their filament channels and overlying coronal arcades. These findings reinforce earlier evidence that every filament magnetic field is separate from the magnetic field of the overlying arcade but both are parts of a larger magnetic field system. The larger system has at least quadrupolar footprints in the photosphere and includes the filament channel and subphotospheric magnetic fields, This ‘systems’ view of filaments and their environment enables new perspectives on why arcades and channels are invariable conditions for their existence. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005026814076