Future changes in rainfall,temperature and reference evapotranspiration in the central India by least square support vector machine

Climate change affects the environment and natural resources immensely. Rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration are major parameters of climate affecting changes in the environment. Evapotranspiration plays a key role in crop production and water balance of a region, one of the major parameters affected by climate change. The reference evapotranspiration or ET₀ is a calculated parameter used in this research. In the present study, changes in the future rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, and ET₀ have been shown by downscaling the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) model data. The selected study area is located in a part of the Narmada river basin area in Madhya Pradesh in central India. The downscaled outputs of projected rainfall, ET₀ and temperatures have been shown for the 21st century with the HADCM3 data of A2 scenario by the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) model. The efficiency of the LS-SVM model was measured by different statistical methods. The selected predictors show considerable correlation with the rainfall and temperature and the application of this model has been done in a basin area which is an agriculture based region and is sensitive to the change of rainfall and temperature. Results showed an increase in the future rainfall, temperatures and ET₀. The temperature increase is projected in the high rise of minimum temperature in winter time and the highest increase in maximum temperature is projected in the pre-monsoon season or from March to May. Highest increase is projected in the 2080s in 2081–2091 and 2091–2099 in maximum temperature and 2091–2099 in minimum temperature in all the stations. Winter maximum temperature has been observed to have increased in the future. High rainfall is also observed with higher ET₀ in some decades. Two peaks of the increase are observed in ET₀ in the April–May and in the October. Variation in these parameters due to climate change might have an impact on the future water resource of the study area, which is mainly an agricultural based region, and will help in proper planning and management.     

Bundelkhand mafic dykes, Central Indian Shield: Implications for the role of sediment subduction in Proterozoic crustal evolution

Abstract The Archean to Paleo–Proterozoic Bundelkhand massif basement of the central Indian shield has been dissected by numerous mafic dykes of Proterozoic age. These dykes are low‐Ti tholeiites, ranging in composition from subalkaline basalt through basaltic‐andesite to dacite. They are enriched in light rare earth elements (LREE), large ion lithophile elements (LILE) and depleted in high field strength elements (HFSE: Nb, P and Ti). Negative Sr anomaly is conspicuous. Nb/La ratios of the dykes are much lower compared with the primitive mantle, not much different from the average crustal values, but quite similar to those of continental and subduction related basaltic rocks. Bulk contamination of the mantle derived magma by crustal material is inadequate to explain the observed geochemical characteristics; instead contamination of the mantle/lithospheric source(s) via subduction of sediment is a better proposition. Thus, in addition to generating juvenile crust along the former island arcs, subduction processes appear to have influence on the development of enriched mantle/lithospheric source(s). The Bundelkhand massif basement is inferred to represent subduction related juvenile crust, that experienced lithospheric extension and rifting possibly in response to mantle plume activities. The latter probably supplied the required heat, material (fluids) and extensional environment to trigger melting in the refractory lithospheric source(s) and emplacement of the mafic dykes. Proterozoic mafic magmatic rocks from Bundelkhand, Aravalli, Singhbhum and Bastar regions of the Indian shield and those from the Garhwal region of the Lesser Himalaya display remarkably similar enriched incompatible trace elements characteristics, although limited chemical variations are observed in all these rocks. This may indicate the existence of a large magmatic province, different parts of which might have experienced similar petrogenetic processes and were probably derived from mantle/lithospheric source(s) with similar trace element characteristics. The minor, less enriched to depleted components of the Jharol Group of the Aravalli terrane and those from the Singhbhum terrane may represent protracted phases of rifting, that probably caused thinning and mobilization of the lithosphere, facilitating the eruption/emplacement of the asthenospheric melts (with N‐ to T‐types mid‐oceanic ridge basalts signatures) and deposition of deep water facies sediments in the younger developing oceanic basins. In contrast, Bundelkhand region did not experience such protracted rifting, although dyke swarms were emplaced and shallow water Bijawar Group and Vindhyan Supergroup sediments were deposited in continental rift basins. All these discrete Proterozoic terranes appear to have experienced similar petrogenetic processes, tectonomagmatic and possibly temporal evolution involving subduction processes, influencing the lithospheric source characteristics, followed by probably mantle plume induced ensialic rifting through to the development of oceanic basins in the Indian shield regions and their extension in the Lesser Himalaya.     

Surface waves in a micropolar elastic solid containing voids

The present paper investigates the effect of voids on the propagation of surface waves in a homogeneous micropolar elastic solid medium which contains a distribution of vacuous pores (voids). The general theory for surface wave propagation in micropolar elastic media containing voids has been presented. Particular cases of surface waves (Rayleigh’s, Love’s and Stoneley’s) in micropolar media which contain vacuous pores have been deduced from the above general theory. Discussions have been made in each case to highlight the effect of voids and micropolar character of the material medium separately. Their joint effect has also been studied in details. Modulation of Rayleigh wave velocity has been studied numerically. It is observed that Love waves are not affected by the presence of voids.     

Geochemical evolution of the Mangalwar Complex,Aravalli Craton,NW India:Insights from elemental and Nd-isotope geochemistry of the basement gneisses

The Banded Gneissic Complex(BGC) of the Aravalli Craton is divided into BGC-I and BGC-Ⅱ; the BGC-Ⅱ(central Rajasthan) is comprised of the Sandmata Complex and the Mangalwar Complex. We report elemental and Nd-isotope geochemistry of basement gneisses of the Mangalwar Complex and constrain its origin and evolution. Geochemically, the basement gneisses have been classified as low-SiO_2 gneisses(LSG) and high-SiO_2 gneisses(HSG). Both the LSG and HSG are potassic, calc-alkaline and peraluminous in nature. The LSG are enriched in incompatible(K, Sr, Ba, large ion lithophile elements) and compatible elements(MgO, Cr, and Ni). They display fractionated rare earth element patterns(avg.La_N/Yb_N=12.1)with small Eu-anomaly(δEu=0.9), and exhibit negative anomalies of Nb and Ti in primitive mantlenormalized multi-element diagram. In terms of Nd-isotope geochemistry, the LSG are characterized by_(εNd)(t)=4.2 and depleted mantle model age of 3.3 Ga. To account for these geochemical characteristics we propose a three-stage petrogenetic model for the LSG:(1) fluids released from dehydration of subducting slab metasomatised the mantle-wedge;(2) the subducting slab underwent slab-breakoff causing upwelling and decompression melting of the asthenosphere during waning stage of subduction; and(3)upwelling asthenosphere provided the requisite heat for partial melting of the metasomatised mantlewedge leading to generation of the LSG parental magma. Asthenospheric upwelling also contributed in the LSG petrogenesis which is evident from its high Mg#(avg. 0.53). The LSG formed in this way are contemporary and chemically akin to sanukitoids of the BGC-I and Archean sanukitoids reported elsewhere. This provides a basis to consider the LSG as a part of the BGC-I. Contrary to the LSG, the HSG are depleted in compatible elements(MgO=avg. 1.1 wt.%; Cr=avg. 8 ppm; Ni=avg. 6 ppm) but enriched in incompatible elements(Sr=avg. 239 ppm, Ba=avg. 469 ppm). Its_(εNd)(t) values vary from-9.5 to-5.4.These chemical features of the HSG are akin to potassic granitoids found elsewhere. In this backdrop, we propose that the HSG suite of the Mangalwar Complex was derived from re-melting(partial) of an older crust(TTG?) occurring within the BGC-Ⅱ.     

Optimum cross section index (OCI): a new approach for identification of an optimum channel—a case study of the Ichamati River,India

The Ichamati River drains the east and south side of the North 24 Parganas district which belongs to the Ganga-Brahmaputra Delta (GBD), covered by deep Quaternary sediments produced under tropical monsoon climate in India. The district is densely populated. The river has huge impact on its population. In this paper, particular attention has been paid to a new method, named optimum cross section index (OCI), which is a numerical representation of a river cross section with respect to its optimum condition. To establish the validity and reliability of OCI, as circumstantial evidences, we have measured and analyzed the geometric parameters, such as width, depth, hydraulic radius, wetted perimeter, and bank profile at 22 points, and applied the areal difference asymmetric index (ADAI). The paper considers that the changing characters of the geometric form of the cross sections and ADAI stand for the OCI. All the techniques reveal that (1) the area of channel decreases abruptly upstream downward, (2) the upstream channel is more symmetrical than the lower reach, and (3) the area of optimum channel gradually increases upstream downward. Results of the study show that the river is going to be deteriorating from upstream downward. OCI has been constructed based on width and depth, which are relatively easily available data. So, this model may be well assessable to identify the optimum channel for a river management.     

Hazardous area map: an approach of sustainable urban planning and industrial development—a review

Natural Hazards - A hazard map is a map which shows about all the vulnerable regions present in any country or at any specific place or location which is affected or will be affected by natural...     

Implementing Vetiver grass-based riverbank protection programmes in rural West Bengal,India

The largely impoverished rural communities of India are unable to bear the costs involved in creating and maintaining substantial structural measures for riverbank protection. The monsoonal nature of the country’s streams and an agrarian economy based on intensive cultivation further heighten the risk posed by annual peak flows and shifting stream courses. Mitigating this requires urgent, sustainable and cost-effective means of conserving valuable farmlands and stabilising channel boundaries. Towards this, riverbank erosion mitigation using Vetiver grass has been a recent development in the country and has been experimented with in a few areas. In this article, we examine how such riparian buffers are created through riverbank modification, planted and nurtured and the effectiveness of the grass in mitigating erosion, taking a small case study from rural West Bengal as an example. We especially focus on the government policies and frameworks and local stakeholder involvements that facilitate such an undertaking, with particular emphasis on the organisational workflow and the ground-level perception of such endeavours, as these are crucial to the success and effectiveness of such schemes. The marked successes achieved through the use of the Vetiver grass in abating erosion and the hindrances encountered in implementing such mitigation projects are outlined, along with the importance of such community-based approaches to river management and monitoring. This case study can be a microcosm for similar such endeavours, particularly in the rural global south.

     

Probing for overshooting as extreme event of thunderstorms

Thunderstorm overshooting is rare but not an unusual phenomenon in a metropolitan of India, Kolkata (22.57° N; 88.36° E) during the pre-monsoon months (April–May). An attempt is made in this study to identify the important parameters differentiating the thunderstorms in overshooting and non-overshooting categories through data analytics from 2000 to 2015. The present investigation on parametric classification would facilitate in estimating the predictability of thunderstorms with overshooting which subsequently might assist in operational forecast of thunderstorm severity over Kolkata. The altitudes of lifting condensation level (LCL), wind shear, bulk Richardson number (BRN), gust speed, boundary layer characteristics and their correlation with thunderstorm cloud top height (CTH) and also their variation and distribution during overshooting (OTS) and non-overshooting (TS) thunderstorms are analyzed in this study. The result depicts that over Kolkata the intensity of storms during OTS is higher than during TS though the frequency of OTS is less than that of TS. The results further show that the potential temperature (θ), equivalent potential temperature (θ_e), mixing ratio (e_s) in the boundary layer, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition energy, BRN and gust speed play significant roles in regulating the CTH during OTS and TS thunderstorms over Kolkata.

     

Rock-physics forward modelling to predict seismic behaviour: A case study for exploration target in Mahanadi basin,East Coast of India

One of the major aspects of rock-physics forward modelling is to predict seismic behaviour at an undrilled location using drilled well data. It is important to model the rock and fluid properties away from drilled wells to characterize the reservoir and investigate the root causes of different seismic responses. Using the forward modelling technique, it is possible to explain the amplitude responses of present seismic data in terms of probable rock and reservoir properties. In this context, rock-physics modelling adds significant values in the prospect maturation process by reducing the risk of reservoir presence in exploration and appraisal phases. The synthetic amplitude variation with offset gathers from the forward model is compared with real seismic gathers to ensure the fidelity of the existing geological model. ‘Prospect A’ in the study area has been identified from seismic interpretation, which was deposited as slope fan sediments in Mahanadi basin, East Coast of India. The mapped prospect has shown class-I amplitude variation with offset response in seismic without any direct hydrocarbon indicator support. The existing geological model suggests the presence of an excellent gas reservoir with proven charge access from the fetch area, moderate porosity and type of lithology within this fan prospect. But, whether the seismic response from this geological model will exhibit a class-I amplitude variation with offset behaviour or ‘dim spot’ will be visible; the objective of the present study is to investigate these queries. A rock-physics depth trend analysis has been done to envisage the possibilities of class-I reservoir in ‘Prospect A’. Forward modelling, using a combination of mechanical and chemical compaction, shows the synthetic gas gathers at ‘Prospect A’, which are class I in nature. The study has also depicted 2D forward modelling using lithology and fluid properties of discovery well within similar stratigraphy to predict whether ‘dim spot’ will be seen in seismic. The estimated change in synthetic amplitude response has been observed as ∼5% at contact, which suggests that the changes will not be visible in seismic. The study connects the existing geological model with a top-down seismic interpretation using rock-physics forward modelling technique to mature a deep-water exploratory prospect.