Estimation of the waiting time distributions of earthquakes

Whether the earthquake occurrences follow a Poisson process model is a widely debated issue. The Poisson process model has great conceptual appeal and those who rejected it under pressure of empirical evidence have tried to restore it by trying to identify main events and suppressing foreshocks and aftershocks. The approach here is to estimate the density functions for the waiting times of the future earthquakes. For this purpose, the notion of Gram-Charlier series which is a standard method for the estimation of density functions has been extended based on the orthogonality properties of certain polynomials such as Laguerre and Legendre. It is argued that it is best to estimate density functions in the context of a particular null hypothesis. Using the results of estimation a simple test has been designed to establish that earthquakes do not occur as independent events, thus violating one of the postulates of a Poisson process model. Both methodological and utilitarian aspects are dealt with.     

Geomorphological units,their geohydrological characteristic and vertical electrical sounding response near Munger,Bihar

Geomorphological mapping through satellite remote sensing coupled with geophysical electrical resistivity survey (vertical electrical sounding) gives very useful information about spatial and depth-wise variation of aquifer’s material, respectively. The present study area broadly falls between the Ganga river and Kharagpur hills (a northern limit of Chotanagpur plateau). These hills are highly folded and consist of quartzites and phyllites of Precambrian age group In the study area, cover material above the basement is the product of weathering, colluvial and fluvial processes of different ages. Geomorphologically, study area has been categorised into different classes i.e. denudo-structural hill, buried pediment, younger alluvial plain, recent flood plain and older alluvial plain. Broadly these classes represent the general ground-water prospects, but in detail, possibility of variation in ground-water prospects cannot be ruled out. In alluvial plain (younger/older) main target for ground-water exploration is sandy horizon. Similarly in buried pediment the main target is coarse-grained weathered material with fractured basement, not the total general thickness of cover material on the basement. In the present paper, authors have tried to analyse the spatial distribution of geomorphic classes and depth-wise variation of aquifer material within the same class for determining the target horizon for further detailed investigation, using remote sensing and electrical sounding.     

Popperian geophysics and tunnelling algorithm

Parasnis has observed in a presidential address that geophysics is not a Popperian science in a major way. That is, hypotheses are not consciously put forth in a falsifiable format and much of the effort goes in seeking supporting evidence for favoured hypotheses. Parker evolved a parameter extremization strategy, initially to tackle the problem of non-uniqueness in geophysical inference. Later he based a hypothesis testing proposal on it, which is refreshingly Popperian. It has not been adopted widely, partly because it requires global extrema, and not local and this has been regarded as a problem with no solution. Attention is drawn towards tunnelling algorithm, which solves the problem of global optimization successfully, makes Parker’s Popperian proposal practical and extends the range of Popperian geophysics.     

Evolution of hydroinformatics at a state water management agency

ABSTRACT

Maintaining a positive cost–benefit ratio for hydrologic data collection is challenging for public water management and regulatory agencies given budgetary constraints. We examine and discuss the evolution of a government agency in the last 20 years to identify the best practices for collecting, managing, and disseminating hydrologic data. The best practices include (1) developing in-house field data collection systems and integrating them with commercial, off-the-shelf software for the enterprise database, (2) standardizing hardware and data acquisition software, (3) collaborating with other agencies and tracking their data collection efforts to avoid redundancy, (4) utilizing open-source programming languages for data quality assurance, (5) rationalizing data collection network, and (6) taking a proactive approach with data collection to better prepare for hydroclimatic variability. Transforming data into easily understandable information and its near-real-time dissemination can add value to the data (e.g. providing inundation instead of water level above mean sea level) in the future.     

Phenomenological fractional stress–dilatancy model for granular soil and soil-structure interface under monotonic and cyclic loads

The stress–dilatancy relation is of critical importance for constitutive modelling of geomaterial. A novel fractional-order stress–dilatancy equation had been developed for granular soil, where a nonlinear stress–dilatancy response was always predicted. However, it was experimentally observed that after a certain extent of shearing, an almost linear response between the stress ratio and the dilatancy ratio, rather than the nonlinear response, usually existed. To capture such stress–dilatancy behaviour, a new fractional stress–dilatancy model is developed in this study, where an apparent linear response of the stress–dilatancy behaviour of soil after sufficient shearing is obtained via analytical solution. As the fractional order varies, the derived stress–dilatancy curve and the associated phase transformation state stress ratio keep changing. But, unlike existing researches, no other specific parameters, except the parameter related to fractional order, concerning such shift are required. Then, the developed stress–dilatancy model is applied to constitutive modelling of granular soil and soil–structure interface, for further validation. A series of test results of different granular soils and soil–structure interfaces under different loading conditions are simulated and compared, where a good model performance is observed.

     

Mineralogy,geochemistry, and genesis of co-genetic granite-pegmatite-hosted rare metal and rare earth deposits of the Kawadgaon area,Bastar craton,Central India

Co-genetic pegmatites associated with the granite of the Kawadgaon area in the Bastar craton, Central India, contain a wide range of ore minerals of Nb, Ta, Be, Sn, Zr, Ti, and REE, including columbite-tantalite, ixiolite, pseudo-ixiolite, wodginite, tapiolite, microlite, fersmite, euxenite, aeschynite, beryl, cassiterite, monazite, xenotime, zircon, ilmenite, triplite, and magnetite. There is a distinct vertical zonation between the rare metal and tin pegmatites in apical parts of the host granite. Geochemically, these are LCT-S type, beryl-columbite-phosphate pegmatites that have notably high contents of SiO₂ (av. 73.80%), Rb (av. 381 ppm), and Nb (av. 132 ppm). The investigated granites probably were derived from the melting of older crustal rocks, as indicated by a high initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr isotopic ratio, and the major-element geochemistry of the granites and pegmatites. Plots of mol. CaO/(MgO+FeO^t) vs. mol. Al₂O₃/(MgO+FeO^t) suggest that the source rock was pelitic metasediments. Based on the available data, it is postulated that the derivation of pegmatites from the parent granite occurred shortly after granite emplacement in the late Archaean-early Proterozoic (~2500 Ma). The K/Rb, Ba/Rb, and Rb/Sr ratios of the felsic bodies reveal that a substantial part of the granite formed from evolved melts, and further fractionation produced the co-genetic pegmatites and associated rare metal and rare earth deposits.     

Long-term rainfall trends and change points in hot and cold arid regions of India

This study examined trends and change points in 100-year annual and seasonal rainfall over hot and cold arid regions of India. Using k-means clustering, 32 stations were classified into two clusters: the coefficient of variation for annual and seasonal rainfall was relatively high for Cluster-II compared to Cluster-I. Short-term and long-term persistence was more dominant in Cluster-II (entirely arid) and Cluster-I (partly arid), respectively. Trend tests revealed prominent increasing trends in annual and wet season rainfall of Cluster-II. Dry season rainfall increased by 1.09 mm year^?1 in the cold arid region. The significant change points in annual and wet season rainfall mostly occurred in the period 1941–1955 (hot and cold), and in the dry season in the period 1973–1975 (hot arid) and in 1949 (cold arid). The findings are useful for managing a surplus or deficiency of rainwater in the Indian arid region.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Kanae     

Dynamic response analysis of tube array in partially filled calandria

An efficient procedure is presented for dynamic response analysis of horizontal tube array in partially filled calandria including hydrodynamic interaction effects. The procedure is general enough to consider the transfer of energy between the fluid-coupled tubes, and effects of moderator sloshing on the magnitude and the distribution of hydrodynamic forces. It has been demonstrated that the conventional added mass approach fails to represent behaviour of the tube array correctly, and it is therefore necessary to consider the flexibility of all the tubes along two directions simultaneously. The procedure presented can simulate the added damping effects due to hydrodynamic interaction. The possible use of a tuned damper tube is suggested for controlling sloshing effects for tube array in a calandria where tube frequencies and sloshing frequencies are closely spaced. The presence of surface damping in the tuned tube further brings down the response, and the suggested procedure can be effectively used to control unwarranted sloshing effects. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Phased array observations with infield phasing

We present results from pulsar observations using the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) as a phased array with infield phasing. The antennas were kept in phase throughout the observation by applying antenna based phase corrections derived from visibilities that were obtained in parallel with the phased array beam data, and which were flagged and calibrated in real time using a model for the continuum emission in the target field. We find that, as expected, the signal to noise ratio (SNR) does not degrade with time. In contrast observations in which the phasing is done only at the start of the observation show a clear degradation of the SNR with time. We find that this degradation is well fit by a function of the form SNR\((\tau ) = \alpha + \beta e^{-(\tau /\tau _{0})^{5/3}}\), which corresponds to the case where the phase drifts are caused by Kolmogorov type turbulence in the ionosphere. We also present general formulae (i.e. including the effects of correlated sky noise, imperfect phasing and self noise) for the SNR and synthesized beam size for phased arrays (as well as corresponding formulae for incoherent arrays). These would be useful in planning observations with large array telescopes.     

Study of Dynamical Structure of an Unusual Monsoon Depression formed over the Bay of Bengal during August 2006

Monsoon depressions, the main rain-producing systems over the Indian region along and near their tracks, are found to intensify the monsoon circulation by organizing low-level convergence. The normal track of the monsoon depressions is along the position of the monsoon trough at the surface, i.e., northwestward from the Head Bay of Bengal. Most of the monsoon depressions dissipate within one or two days after landfall. An unusual monsoon depression formed in the Bay of Bengal during the 1^st week of August 2006 causing heavy to very heavy rainfall over Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat States of India. The track of this depression was anomalously southward from the mean track of the August depressions. It maintained its intensity during its longer travel. This paper addresses some of the dynamical characteristics of the depression in relation to its southward/westward track and longer travel. It is observed that horizontal advection of absolute vorticity above 550 hPa (below 600 hPa) along west (east) of the depression and maximum divergence of absolute vorticity below 400 hPa dominated for the westward movement of the depression. Increased moisture supply from the Arabian Sea (after the landfall of the depression) helped to maintain the intensity of the system throughout its long travel. The energy conversion terms revealed the strengthening of the zonal flow at higher levels prior to the formation of the depression.