On hydraulic falls of two-layer flow

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Present and future climates of the Greenland ice sheet according to the IPCC AR4 models

The atmosphere?Cocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) are evaluated for the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) current climate modelling. The most suited AOGCMs for Greenland climate simulation are then selected on the basis of comparison between the 1970?C1999 outputs of the Climate of the twentieth Century experiment (20C3M) and reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP/NCAR). This comparison indicates that the representation quality of surface parameters such as temperature and precipitation are highly correlated to the atmospheric circulation (500?hPa geopotential height) and its interannual variability (North Atlantic oscillation). The outputs of the three most suitable AOGCMs for present-day climate simulation are then used to assess the changes estimated by three IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (SRES) over the GrIS for the 2070?C2099 period. Future atmospheric circulation changes are projected to dampen the zonal flow, enhance the meridional fluxes and therefore provide additional heat and moisture to the GrIS, increasing temperature over the whole ice sheet and precipitation over its northeastern area. We also show that the GrIS surface mass balance anomalies from the SRES A1B scenario amount to ?300?km³/year with respect to the 1970?C1999 period, leading to a global sea-level rise of 5?cm by the end of the 21st century. This work can help to select the boundaries conditions for AOGCMs-based downscaled future projections.     

An Approach to Quantify the Heat Wave Strength and Price a Heat Derivative for Risk Hedging

Mitigating the heat stress via a derivative policy is a vital financial option for agricultural producers and other business sectors to strategically adapt to the climate change scenario. This study has provided an approach to identifying heat stress events and pricing the heat stress weather derivative due to persistent days of high surface air temperature (SAT). Cooling degree days (CDD) are used as the weather index for trade. In this study, a call-option model was used as an example for calculating the price of the index. Two heat stress indices were developed to describe the severity and physical impact of heat waves. The daily Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-D) SAT data from 1901 to 2007 from the southern California, USA, were used. A major California heat wave that occurred 20-25 October 1965 was studied. The derivative price was calculated based on the call-option model for both long-term station data and the interpolated grid point data at a regular 0.1 ×0.1 latitude-longitude grid. The resulting comparison indicates that (a) the interpolated data can be used as reliable proxy to price the CDD and (b) a normal distribution model cannot always be used to reliably calculate the CDD price. In conclusion, the data, models, and procedures described in this study have potential application in hedging agricultural and other risks.     

Characterization of manganese oxide precipitates from Appalachian coal mine drainage treatment systems

The removal of Mn(II) from coal mine drainage (CMD) by chemical addition/active treatment can significantly increase treatment costs. Passive treatment for Mn removal involves promotion of biological oxidative precipitation of manganese oxides (MnO_x). Manganese(II) removal was studied in three passive treatment systems in western Pennsylvania that differed based on their influent Mn(II) concentrations (20–150 mg/L), system construction (±inoculation with patented Mn(II)-oxidizing bacteria), and bed materials (limestone vs. sandstone). Manganese(II) removal occurred at pH values as low as 5.0 and temperatures as low as 2 °C, but was enhanced at circumneutral pH and warmer temperatures. Trace metals such as Zn, Ni and Co were removed effectively, in most cases preferentially, into the MnO_x precipitates. Based on synchrotron radiation X-ray diffraction and Mn K-edge extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy, the predominant Mn oxides at all sites were poorly crystalline hexagonal birnessite, triclinic birnessite and todorokite. The surface morphology of the MnO_x precipitates from all sites was coarse and “sponge-like” composed of nm-sized lathes and thin sheets. Based on scanning electron microscopy (SEM), MnO_x precipitates were found in close proximity to both prokaryotic and eukaryotic organisms. The greatest removal efficiency of Mn(II) occurred at the one site with a higher pH in the bed and a higher influent total organic C (TOC) concentration (provided by an upstream wetland). Biological oxidation of Mn(II) driven by heterotrophic activity was most likely the predominant Mn removal mechanism in these systems. Influent water chemistry and Mn(II) oxidation kinetics affected the relative distribution of MnO_x mineral assemblages in CMD treatment systems.     

Magmatic modification of the uppermost mantle beneath the Basin and Range to Colorado Plateau Transition Zone; Evidence from xenoliths, Wikieup, Arizona

Upper mantle xenoliths from Wikieup, AZ, provide abundant evidence for magmatic modification of the uppermost mantle beneath the Transition Zone between the Colorado Plateau and the southern Basin and Range province. Upper mantle lithologies in this xenolith suite are represented by spinel peridotite, wehrlite, plagioclase peridotite, and Al-augite group pyroxenites. Isotopic data for these xenoliths yield relatively uniform values and suggest a common petrogenesis. Al-augite-bearing gabbro and pyroxenite xenoliths from this locality are interpreted to have formed by crystal fractionation processes from parent alkali basalts similar to the Wikieup host basalt. Mineral and whole rock compositions show consistent trends of increasing incompatible element contents (Fe, Al, Ca, Na, K, LIL, and LREE), and decreasing compatible element contents (Mg, Cr, Ni) from spinel peridotite to wehrlite to plagioclase peridotite to the host basalt composition. These compositional trends are interpreted as resulting from varying degrees of magma-mantle wall rock interaction as ascending mafic magmas infiltrated upper mantle peridotite. Small degrees of melt infiltration resulted in slightly modified spinel peridotite compositions while moderate degrees metasomatized spinel peridotite to wehrlite, and the highest degrees metasomatized it to plagioclase peridotite. Whole rock compositions and clinopyroxene, plagioclase, and whole rock isotopic data suggest that the infiltrating magmas were the same as those from which the gabbros and pyroxenites crystallized, and that they were alkalic in composition, similar to the Wikieup host alkali olivine basalts. Relatively uniform ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd for the mineral separates and whole rocks in spite of the significantly wide range in their ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.71–0.23 in clinopyroxene) suggests that the Wikieup xenoliths including gabbro, pyroxenite, peridotite, wehrlite, and plagioclase peridotite, are all relatively young rocks formed or metasomatized by a relatively recent magmatic episode. Received: 21 May 1996 / Accepted: 23 December 1996     

Estimation of Sill Matrices in the Linear Model of Coregionalization

When using least squares to fit the linear model of coregionalization to multivariate geostatistical data, the sill matrices for the different regions must be estimated, subject to the constraint that they be non-negative definite. In 1992, Goulard and Voltz proposed and empirically examined an iterative algorithm for doing this. Although no proof was given for its convergence or for the uniqueness of the solution to the problem, the algorithm has subsequently been extensively and successfully used. In this paper, we prove that the minimization problem, in fact, has a unique solution and that the algorithm is guaranteed to converge to it from any starting point. We also discuss the effect of the starting point on the speed of convergence.     

Regional-scale back-analysis using TRIGRS: an approach to advance landslide hazard modeling and prediction in sparse data regions

Landslides in Kerala, India, have been shown to be preceded not only by critical rainfall over a short period but also a much longer period of elevated pore pressure. Such rainfall-triggered landslides are difficult to monitor due to a lack of adequate data on the locations of failures and precipitation. Here, a method is presented using Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope stability (TRIGRS) as a tool to model the relationship between critical rainfall and antecedent pore pressure as they relate to slope stability, which can be useful for hazard assessment in sparse data regions. This is demonstrated by parameterizing the model with a combination of regional data sources, remote sensing, and temporal back-analysis based on two known failure events (June 2004 and July 2007). Ranges of possible geotechnical and hydraulic parameters were obtained from various local and regional sources, and soil thickness was modeled as a function of slope angle. Rainfall was estimated using satellite microwave radiometry data. For back-analysis, combinations of cohesion, friction angle, and water table depth were then tested in TRIGRS using trial and error until the predicted and observed failure times coincided for the two failure events. While the spatial prediction accuracy of the model is low and multiple solution sets are expected to exist, the results confirm that information regarding the critical pre-failure conditions and stability changes over time can be derived despite data-poor circumstances. Future studies can be undertaken extending this method to characterize many parameter combinations and incorporate more failure cases to develop probabilistic early-warning thresholds.     

Sea level forcing in the Mediterranean Sea between 1960 and 2000

Sea level trends and inter-annual variability in the Mediterranean Sea for the period 1960–2000 is explored by comparing observations from tide gauges with sea level hindcasts from a barotropic 2D circulation model, and two full primitive equation 3D ocean circulation models, a regional one and the Mediterranean component of a global one,. In the 2D model, 50% of the sea level variance was found to result from the wind and atmospheric pressure forcing. In the 3D models, 20% of the sea level variance was explained by the steric effects. The sea level residuals at the tide gauges locations, calculated by subtraction of the 2D model output from the sea level observations are significantly correlated (r = 0.4) with the steric signals from the 3D models. After the removal of the atmospheric and the steric contributions the tide-gauge sea level records indicate a period where sea level was stable (1960–1975) and a period where sea level was rising (1975–2000) with rates in the range 1.1–1.8 mm/yr. A part of the residual trend can be explained by the contribution of local land movements (0.3 mm/yr) while its major part indicates a global signal, probably mass addition, appearing after 1975.     

A Comparison of Hyporheic Transport at a Cross‐Vane Structure and Natural Riffle

While restoring hyporheic flowpaths has been cited as a benefit to stream restoration structures, little documentation exists confirming that constructed restoration structures induce comparable hyporheic exchange to natural stream features. This study compares a stream restoration structure (cross‐vane) to a natural feature (riffle) concurrently in the same stream reach using time‐lapsed electrical resistivity (ER) tomography. Using this hydrogeophysical approach, we were able to quantify hyporheic extent and transport beneath the cross‐vane structure and the riffle. We interpret from the geophysical data that the cross‐vane and the natural riffle induced spatially and temporally unique hyporheic extent and transport, and the cross‐vane created both spatially larger and temporally longer hyporheic flowpaths than the natural riffle. Tracer from the 4.67‐h injection was detected along flowpaths for 4.6 h at the cross‐vane and 4.2 h at the riffle. The spatial extent of the hyporheic zone at the cross‐vane was 12% larger than that at the riffle. We compare ER results of this study to vertical fluxes calculated from temperature profiles and conclude significant differences in the interpretation of hyporheic transport from these different field techniques. Results of this study demonstrate a high degree of heterogeneity in transport metrics at both the cross‐vane and the riffle and differences between the hyporheic flowpath networks at the two different features. Our results suggest that restoration structures may be capable of creating sufficient exchange flux and timescales of transport to achieve the same ecological functions as natural features, but engineering of the physical and biogeochemical environment may be necessary to realize these benefits.