Assessing the robustness of projected precipitation changes over central Africa on the basis of a multitude of global and regional climate projections

It is well accepted within the scientific community that a large ensemble of different projections is required to achieve robust climate change information for a specific region. For this purpose we have compiled a state-of-the-art multi-model multi-scenario ensemble of global and regional precipitation projections. This ensemble combines several global projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 databases, along with some recently downscaled regional CORDEX-Africa projections. Altogether daily precipitation data from 77 different climate change projections is analysed; separated into 31 projections for a high and 46 for a low emission scenario. We find a robust indication that, independent of the underlying emission scenario, annual total precipitation amounts over the central African region are not likely to change severely in the future. However some robust changes in precipitation characteristics, like the intensification of heavy rainfall events as well as an increase in the number of dry spells during the rainy season are projected for the future. Further analysis shows that over some regions the results of the climate change assessment clearly depend on the size of the analyzed ensemble. This indicates the need of a “large-enough” ensemble of independent climate projections to allow for a reliable climate change assessment.     

Rainfall and rainy days trend in Iran

In this study, long-term annual and monthly trends in rainfall amount, number of rainy days and maximum precipitation in 24?h are investigated based on the data collected at 33 synoptic stations in Iran. The statistical significance of trend and climate variability is assessed by the Mann-Kendall test. The Linear trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test indicate that there are no significant linear trends in monthly rainfall at most of the synoptic stations in Iran. However, the maximum number of stations with negative trends have been observed in April (29 station), and then in May (21 stations) and February (21 stations) and with positive trends in December (26 stations) and July (24 stations). The significant linear trends, with a significant level of 0.05, in annual rainfall have been noticed only at five stations. The monthly number of rainy days does not show any significant linear trend for most areas in Iran. The maximum number of stations with monthly negative trends in rainy days has also been observed in April with the minimum in December. In April, out of 24 stations with negative trends, 12 stations have a significant negative trend. Contrary to that, in October there is no significant linear trend. Most stations have positive trends in annual number of rainy days. Also, the monthly maximum precipitation in 24?h does not show any significant linear trend for most areas in Iran. The maximum number of stations with monthly negative trends in maximum precipitation has also been observed in February with the minimum in December. In spite of that, there are almost no significant precipitation variations in Iran during the last 50-odd years, the tendency of decreasing rainfall amount in April and increasing rainfall amount in December and July could indicate an eventual climate change in this area in the future.     

Application of fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making to select and to rank the post-mining land-use

The selection of an optimal reclamation method is one of the most important portions of the surface mining design. There are many factors in this problem which seriously influence decision-making. The fuzzy set theory was applied due to the effect of uncertain parameters involved in the decision-making process. Therefore, the fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making method was proposed. The aim of this study is to use the fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution method for ranking the optimal post-mining land-use and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method in order to determine the weights of each criterion. This approach is applied to the surface coal mine by employing 28 criteria which influence the decision-making procedure. The TOPSIS and AHP methods have been the most used methods of mining decision-making and demonstrated their ability to make critical decisions. By evaluating the alternatives and considering effective criteria with proposed methods, agriculture is the optimal post-mining land-use.     

Bat algorithm for dam–reservoir operation

Optimizing reservoir operation rule is considered as a complex engineering problem which requires an efficient algorithm to solve. During the past decade, several optimization algorithms have been applied to solve complex engineering problems, which water resource decision-makers can employ to optimize reservoir operation. This study investigates one of the new optimization algorithms, namely, Bat Algorithm (BA). The BA is incorporated with different rule curves, including first-, second-, and third-order rule curves. Two case studies, Aydoughmoush dam and Karoun 4 dam in Iran, are considered to evaluate the performance of the algorithm. The main purpose of the Aydoughmoush dam is to supply water for irrigation. Hence, the objective function for the optimization model is to minimize irrigation deficit. On the other hand, Karoun 4 dam is designed for hydropower generation. Three different evaluation indices, namely, reliability, resilience, and vulnerability were considered to examine the performance of the algorithm. Results showed that the bat algorithm with third-order rule curve converged to the minimum objective function for both case studies and achieved the highest values of reliability index and resiliency index and the lowest value of the vulnerability index. Hence, the bat algorithm with third-order rule curve can be considered as an appropriate optimization model for reservoir operation.     

Prediction of river flow using hybrid neuro-fuzzy models

The complex nature of hydrological phenomena, like rainfall and river flow, causes some limitations for some admired soft computing models in order to predict the phenomenon. Evolutionary algorithms (EA) are novel methods that used to cover the weaknesses of the classic training algorithms, such as trapping in local optima, poor performance in networks with large parameters, over-fitting, and etc. In this study, some evolutionary algorithms, including genetic algorithm (GA), ant colony optimization for continuous domain (ACO_R), and particle swarm optimization (PSO), have been used to train adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in order to predict river flow. For this purpose, classic and hybrid ANFIS models were trained using river flow data obtained from upstream stations to predict 1-, 3-, 5-, and 7-day ahead river flow of downstream station. The best inputs were selected using correlation coefficient and a sensitivity analysis test (cosine amplitude). The results showed that PSO improved the performance of classic ANFIS in all the periods such that the averages of coefficient of determination, R², root mean square error, RMSE (m³/s), mean absolute relative error, MARE, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) were improved up to 0.19, 0.30, 43.8, and 0.13%, respectively. Classic ANFIS was only capable to predict river flow in 1-day ahead while EA improved this ability to 5-day ahead. Cosine amplitude method was recognized as an appropriate sensitivity analysis method in order to select the best inputs.     

FuzzyKrig: a comprehensive matlab toolbox for geostatistical estimation of imprecise information

Using kriging has been accepted today as the most common method of estimating spatial data in such different fields as the geosciences. To be able to apply kriging methods, it is necessary that the data and variogram model parameters be precise. To utilize the imprecise (fuzzy) data and parameters, use is made of fuzzy kriging methods. Although it has been 30 years since different fuzzy kriging algorithms were proposed, its use has not become as common as other kriging methods (ordinary, simple, log, universal, etc.); lack of a comprehensive software that can perform, based on different fuzzy kriging algorithms, the related calculations in a 3D space can be the main reason. This paper describes an open-source software toolbox (developed in Matlab) for running different algorithms proposed for fuzzy kriging. It also presents, besides a short presentation of the fuzzy kriging method and introduction of the functions provided by the FuzzyKrig toolbox, 3 cases of the software application under the conditions where: 1) data are hard and variogram model parameters are fuzzy, 2) data are fuzzy and variogram model parameters are hard, and 3) both data and variogram model parameters are fuzzy.     

Spatial assessment of the potential of groundwater quality using fuzzy AHP in GIS

In this study, fuzzy AHP method is used for extracting the water quality indicators based on the Schuler standard and World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines during a 20-year period. For this purpose, the best fit of the zoning model was performed. Furthermore, by comparing the standard errors, the continuous Raster layer was extracted from the important parameters used in generating the qualitative potential assessment index. The classified layer was generated by integrating continuous layers in the GIS environment and with the use of Python programming. The similarity of the outputs of both methods indicates the presence of large sections of aquifers in the middle and southwestern regions of Iran in the “temporarily drinkable” and “bad” classes. The calculations showed that the majority of aquifers that were located in the “inappropriate” class during the first 10 years fell to less valuable class types. Based on the results of the model, there is a direct correlation between the drop in water resources and the decline in the quality indices. In addition, in the Urmia and Bushehr coastal aquifers, due to excessive water withdrawal and salty water penetration, the quality of the table water is in critical condition. Based on the results of the research, the aquifers in the range of Zagros and Alborz mountains show the least change in water quality. The reason for this is the depth of the aquifer and the ability to recharge it.     

Modeling the strong ground motion and rupture characteristics of the March 31, 2006, Darb-e-Astane earthquake,Iran, using a hybrid of near-field SH-wave and empirical Green’s function method

We analyze the strong motion accelerograms of the moderate (M _w = 6.1), March 31, 2006, Darb-e-Astane earthquake of western Iran and also those of one of its prominently recorded, large (M _w = 5.1) foreshock and (M _w = 4.9) aftershock. (1) Using derived SH-wave spectral data, we first objectively estimate the parameters W _o\mathit{\Omega} _{\rm o} (long period spectral level), f _c (corner frequency) and Q(f) (frequency dependent, average shear wave quality factor), appropriate for the best-fit Brune ω ^− 2 spectrum of each of these three events. We then perform a non-linear least square analysis of the SH-wave spectral data to provide approximate near-field estimates of the strike, dip, and rake of the causative faults and also the seismic moment, moment magnitude, source size, and average stress drop of these three events. (2) In the next step, we use these approximate values and an empirical Green’s function approach, in an iterative manner, to optimally model the strong ground motion and rupture characteristics of the main event in terms of peak ground acceleration/velocity/displacement and duration of ground shaking and thereby provide improved, more reliable estimates of the causative fault parameters of the main event and its asperities. Our near-field estimates for both the main moderate event and the two smaller events are in good conformity with the corresponding far-field estimates reported by other studies.     

Bedload Sediment Rate Prediction for the Sand Transport Along Coastal Waters in Ocean Management Strategy

China Ocean Engineering - Interactions among different landforms and varied complicated physical processes cause sediment transport in coastal regions being the interest of ocean management...