An Empirical Comparison of Kriging Methods for Nonlinear Spatial Point Prediction

Spatial prediction is a problem common to many disciplines. A simple application is the mapping of an attribute recorded at a set of points. Frequently a nonlinear functional of the observed variable is of interest, and this calls for nonlinear approaches to prediction. Nonlinear kriging methods, developed in recent years, endeavour to do so and additionally provide estimates of the distribution of the target quantity conditional on the observations. There are few empirical studies that validate the various forms of nonlinear kriging. This study compares linear and nonlinear kriging methods with respect to precision and their success in modelling prediction uncertainty. The methods were applied to a data set giving measurements of the topsoil concentrations of cobalt and copper at more than 3000 locations in the Border Region of Scotland. The data stem from a survey undertaken to identify places where these trace elements are deficient for livestock. The comparison was carried out by dividing the data set into calibration and validation sets. No clear differences between the precision of ordinary, lognormal, disjunctive, indicator, and model-based kriging were found, neither for linear nor for nonlinear target quantities. Linear kriging, supplemented with the assumption of normally distributed prediction errors, failed to model the conditional distribution of the marginally skewed data, whereas the nonlinear methods modelled the conditional distributions almost equally well. In our study the plug-in methods did not fare any worse than model-based kriging, which takes parameter uncertainty into account.     

Nature and cosmic integrity a search in Hindu geographical thought

The roots of Hindu geographic thought can be traced to the remote past, going back at least to c. 3500 BC. Formerly the unity of Nature and Man was expressed in the context of religious activities. The idea of nature and human integrity in Hindu thought depends upon ways in which people see and experience themselves, their sense of attachment to nature, and their ways of maintaining this. It is through symbolism, the main expression of mythological understanding, that one can gain insight into the relationships of humanity to Nature. Creation and incarnation myths describe the origin of organic life and of its five basic elements. The integrity of dwelling in space is expressed through the notion of home. Religion plays a vital role in the Hindu quest for harmony between nature and humanity.Mystics understand the roots of the Tao but not its branches; scientists understand its branches but not its roots. Science does not need mysticism and mysticism does not need science; but man needs both (Capra 1976, p. 297).     

Evapotranspiration and canopy resistance of grass in a Mediterranean region

Summary A simple method for estimating actual evapotranspiration (ET) could become a suitable tool for irrigation scheduling. Resistance models can be useful if data on canopy resistance to water vapor flow (rc) and on aerodynamic resistance (ra) are available. These parameters are complex and hard to obtain. In this studyrc is analysed for a reference crop (grass meadow). Canopy resistance is dependent on climate, weather (radiation, atmospheric vapor pressure deficit, aerodynamic resistance), agronomic practices (irrigation, grass cutting) and time scale (hour, day). Anrc model, proposed by Katerji and Perrier (KP model), using some meteorological parameters as inputs, is presented. Canopy resistance calculated according to the KP model was used to estimate a referenceET _ref on hourly and daily time scales.TheET _ref estimated using the KP model on a daily time scale was compared with a model proposed by Allen, Jensen, Wright and Burman (AJWB model) — in whichrc depends on leaf area index only — and with direct measurements from a weighing lysimeter. The results show an underestimation of 18% for the AJWB model against an underestimation of 2% for the KP model. Since the hypotheses are the same for both models and aerodynamic resistance plays a secondary role, the better results obtained by the KP model are due torc modelling.With 11 Figures     

Growth of medium sized towns in India

The growth of medium sized towns (with a population ranging from 20,000 to less than 100,000) in India was subjected to a detailed analysis. The basic premise was that growth behaviour of this group of towns, rather of cities or small towns, was a sensitive index to decentralisation of the urban process as well as to a balanced development of a region.It was discovered that growth rate of these towns was not just moderate; it was moderate to rapid. This signified that medium sized towns were more akin to cities than to small towns in respect of growth pattern.Among the various factors affecting growth, location of these towns in a particular region was discerned as more critical than their functions or relative size. Their growth was distinctly fast in areas with comparatively low population density, wide spacing of towns and new developmental activities. Here these towns were generally the biggest in their subregional context. The growth behaviour of medium sized towns did confirm dispersal of urbanisation but lack of any consistent relationship between their growth rate and development level of different areas was not in conformity with the hypothesis.     

Influence of strong motion characteristics on permanent displacement of slopes

Landslides triggered by moderate to major earthquakes are a recognized seismic hazard. Arias Intensity (I _a) is a key intensity measure of the ground motion, but significant duration is widely used to define strong motion duration. We calculate Newmark’s displacements using earthquake records bracketing a broad range of Arias Intensity and significant duration employing Newmark’s rigid block method and a number of yield accelerations. Total landslide displacement increases with the increase in the energy content of the ground motion (I _a) above a threshold. Such threshold may be expressed as a function of yield acceleration of the slope regardless of the ground motion characteristics. Newmark displacement decreases with increasing duration for earthquakes with similar energy content. The wide scatter in the results converges when using formal dimensional analysis. Self-similar symmetry may facilitate the assessment of the performance of slopes during earthquakes. The mathematical framework for probabilistic determination of landslides displacement may be a useful aid to estimate the likelihood of landslide hazards provided that the geotechnical properties of the slopes are known.     

A proposed new approach for groundwater resources assessment in India

Assessment of groundwater resources in India is guided by National Water Policy (1987, 2002) which states that groundwater resources can be exploited only up to its recharge limit. The methodology for groundwater resources assessment in India is broadly based on Ground Water Resources Estimation Methodology, 1997 and it involves assessment of annual replenishable groundwater resources (recharge), annual groundwater draft (utilization) and the percentage of utilization with respect to recharge (stage of development). The assessment units (blocks/watersheds) are categorized based on stage of groundwater development (utilization) and the long term water level trend. The present methodology though useful in identification and prioritization of areas for groundwater management, falls short of addressing several critical issues like spatial and temporal variation of groundwater availability within the aquifer, accessibility of groundwater resources and quality of groundwater. This paper introduces a new categorisation scheme considering the above issues. The proposed scheme takes into account four criteria, viz. (i) stage of exploitation, (ii) extractability factor, (iii) temporal availability factor and (iv) quality factor. In comparison to the existing method used for categorisation, the proposed approach is more inclusive. The methodology is also equally suitable for both alluvial and hard rock terrain since it takes into consideration the variable characteristics of different types of aquifers and convergence of quantitative and qualitative assessment. The categorisation proposed here involves GIS based integration of different parameters/ themes. This allows better representation of spatial variability. The proposed methodology is demonstrated in this paper taking a case study from a hard rock terrain in central India.     

New Discovery of Hipparion theobaldi Skull from the Late Miocene of Padhri, District Jhelum, Punjab, Pakistan and Associated Mammalian Fossil Assemblage

A fossil-bearing locality near Padhri village, Dhok Pathan, 55 km away from the tehsil Dina, Jhelum District, in the Potwar Plateau, Middle Siwaliks, Punjab, northern Pakistan, is significantly rich in mammalian fossils. This site has provided an abundant mammalian fossil fauna of Late Miocene age from the Dhok Pathan Formation (Fm.). The recovered material belongs to four families: Equidae (horses), Rhinocerotidae (rhinos), Bovidae (cows), and Suidae (pigs). We discovered a new skull of hipparionine Hipparion theobaldi from this locality along with 22 specimens from the associated assemblage of fossil mammals. The recovered material includes seven other species: the aceratheriine Chilotherium intermedium, boselaphines Tragoportax punjabicus, Selenoportax vexillarius, Pachyportax latidens, the antelope Gazella lydekkeri and suinine Propotamochoerus hysudricus. The specimens are isolated teeth, fragments of maxilla, mandibles and horn cores. The Dhok Pathan Fm. is generally composed of claystone, siltstone and sandstone beds and, based on the mammalian fauna, the Padhri fossil locality is dated as Late Miocene. Thi99s formation was deposited in a subtropical paleoenvironment and the predominance of fossil bovids indicates extremely moist conditions with small but frequent standing water bodies.     

Evaluation of the Effect of Fault on the Stability of Underground Workings of Coal Mine through DEM and Statistical Analysis

The rock mass around an excavation is generally traversed by different geological discontinuities such as faults, folds, slips, joints, etc. Fault is one of the major geological discontinuities which creates lot of difficulties during underground winning of coal. Entire stress regime and ground conditions in the formation are altered in and around the faults. Faults also impose detrimental effects by introducing impurities, including clay and various forms of mineral matter into the coal seams; opening of pathways for the influx of water and gas into the underground workings; displacing the coal seams upward/downwards making the coal seams difficult or sometimes impractical to mine. Appropriate evaluation of the effect of the fault on the stability of the underground workings is a requisite for safe design of the underground mining structures. In this paper, a study has been carried out to assess the effect of the fault on the stability of underground coal mines by numerical simulation with distinct element method (DEM). On the calibrated DEM model, parametric study has been performed by varying the selected parameters, the dip and the friction angles of the fault. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) shows that both the factors have statistically significant effect on the strength of the coal pillar. Similarly, the displacement of the immediate roof and the height of the disturbed strata are evaluated by the DEM modelling and statistical analysis when the fault passes through the middle of the gallery. The results of ANOVA for both cases indicate that the both factors have significant effect on the displacement of the immediate roof and the height of the disturbed strata. It is obtained from the study that the low angle fault causes high instability in the immediate roof. The paper has been supplemented with the field observations where instability in underground roadways of a coal mine in India is caused by the fault. It was observed in VK-7 incline mine of Singareni Collieries Company Limited, India that there was sudden failure of immediate roof of a roadway where a low angle fault crosses the middle of the roadway. The findings of the paper help to understand the behaviour of the coal pillar and the surrounding rock mass in the presence of the fault. The study would also help to take appropriate decisions about the unstable regions of the working safeguarding safety in underground coal mines.     

Effect of extreme rainfall events on the water resources of the Jordan River

As a response to climate change, shifting rainfall trends including increased multi-year droughts and an escalation in extreme rainfall events are expected in the Middle East. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the potential impact of these shifting trends on stream flow in the Jordan River and its tributaries. We use a non-homogeneous hidden Markov model to generate artificial daily rainfall simulations which capture independently shifting trends of increased droughts and escalated extreme. These simulations are then used as input into a hydrological model calibrated for the upper catchments of the Jordan River to compare the impact on stream flow and water resources between the different rainfall scenarios. We compare the predicted baseflow and surface flow components of the tested watersheds, and find that while an increase in extreme rainfall events increases the intensity and frequency of surface flow, the over all flow to the Jordan River, and the characteristics of the baseflow in the Jordan River system is not largely impacted. In addition, though it has been suggested that in the case of a multi-year drought the karstic nature of the aquifer might lead to more intense, non-linear reductions in stream flow, here we quantify and show the conditions when annual stream flow reduce linearly with rainfall, and when these relations will become non-linear.