The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Numerical simulation of the interaction between two high-energy plasma bunches in the ionosphere

The 3D MHD algorithm developed by us has been adapted to modeling the interaction between two plasma bunches in the ionosphere, mainly in order to sufficiently correctly describe the physics of the interaction between two plasma regions with regard to the ionospheric inhomogeneity and the geomagnetic field action. Modeling has been performed for several versions of location of the plasma region centers.     

Multidimensional statistical technique for detection of low contrast geochemical anomalies

In this article we propose an advanced technique for detecting low contrast geochemical anomalies using a set of features. There are three principal elements in this technique: (1) a statistical measure of the contrast of the anomaly, denoted as τ; (2) selection of a background population; and (3) reduction of the dimensionality of the feature space. In the frame of the model, which describes the statistical distribution of geochemical background as a multidimensional normal distribution of logarithms of concentrations, the index, τ, is a powerful test statistic for the hypothesis of abnormality of an observation. Maps of τ anomalies can be rigorously interpreted on the basis of statistical inferences. Under all equal conditions this technique allows the detection of geochemical anomalies with at least the same contrast (if the chemical elements in a background population are correlated, then even the better) as using selective extractions of metals from soil or other techniques for data processing. The advantages of the proposed technique are demonstrated both theoretically and on examples of rare-metal and copper–nickel mineral deposits.     

Decorrelated GRACE time-variable gravity solutions by GFZ,and their validation using a hydrological model

We have analyzed recent gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) RL04 monthly gravity solutions, using a new decorrelating post-processing approach. We find very good agreement with mass anomalies derived from a global hydrological model. The post-processed GRACE solutions exhibit only little amplitude damping and an almost negligible phase shift and period distortion for relevant hydrological basins. Furthermore, these post-processed GRACE solutions have been inspected in terms of data fit with respect to the original inter-satellite ranging and to SLR and GPS observations. This kind of comparison is new. We find variations of the data fit due to solution post-processing only within very narrow limits. This confirms our suspicion that GRACE data do not firmly ‘pinpoint’ the standard unconstrained solutions. Regarding the original Kusche (J Geod 81:733–749, 2007) decorrelation and smoothing method, a simplified (order-convolution) approach has been developed. This simplified approach allows to realize a higher resolution—as necessary, e.g., for generating computed GRACE observations—and needs far less coefficients to be stored.     

Molecular abundances and nucleation in protostellar envelopes

This work is basically concerned with grain nucleation occurring in protostellar envelopes. On the basis of the dissociation equilibrium theory, molecular and atomic abundances are obtained for massive protostar envelopes. Application of time-independent homogeneous nucleation theory results in the possibility of atomic Fe condensation.     

Superposition of gold mineralisation on pre‐existing carbonate alteration: Structural evidence from the Mulgarrie gold deposit,Yilgarn Craton

Carbonate alteration at the Mulgarrie gold mine in the Eastern Goldfields of Western Australia, is represented by porphyroblasts, veins and pervasive, texturally destructive, carbonatisation. Two foliations, S_1M and S_2M, were produced by two separate deformation events at the mine‐scale, D_1M and D_2M. D_1M and D_2M both occurred in response to regional D₂ tectonism. Carbonate alteration was the product of two separate episodes of fluid ingress: the earlier produced magnesite and the latter Fe‐dolomite. Both periods of carbonate alteration occurred pre‐ to early syn‐D_2M, when mafic to ultramafic komatiitic rocks reacted with fluids that moved along regional faults and pre‐date the alteration associated with regional peak metamorphism. Gold at Mulgarrie overprints pre‐ and late syn‐D₂ quartz veins in zones of massive carbonate alteration, suggesting it has a late‐ to post‐D₂ timing. This late timing agrees with the generally accepted syn‐D₃ (and younger) age for gold mineralisation in the Eastern Goldfields. We suggest that carbonate alteration at Mulgarrie is not a product of the hydrothermal event responsible for the gold mineralisation. Rather, the different relative timing of magnesite, Fe‐dolomite and gold indicates there were two carbonate‐producing fluid systems and a fluid transporting the gold overprinted these. Similarly, early carbonate alteration may play a role in localising auriferous vein deposits throughout the Yilgarn and other Archaean cratons.     

Patterns of pH change inferred from chrysophyte microfossils in Adirondack and northern New England lakes

The silica-scaled chrysophytes are being used increasingly in paleolimnological studies of lake acidification. This study compares the distribution of scaled chrysophytes in the surface sediment of a calibration set of lakes from the Adirondack Park and from northern New England. With the exception of two taxa, species distributions with respect to pH are similar in the two regions. The stratigraphic distribution of chrysophytes is then compared in five Adirondack and three New England lakes. All the presently acid lakes indicate recent lake acidification, with more acid tolerant chrysophytes increasing in relative frequency in the recent sediments. Because the timing of these species changes is unrelated to any watershed disturbances that may have occurred in the lakes' catchments, atmospheric deposition of acids is believed responsible for these recent pH changes.This is the seventh of a series of papers to be published by this journal which is a contribution of the Paleoecological Investigation of Recent Lake Acidification (PIRLA) project. Drs. D. F. Charles and D. R. Whitehead are guest editors for this series.     

Archaeal Communities of Frozen Quaternary Sediments of Marine Origin on the Coast of Western Spitsbergen

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The archaeal composition of permafrost samples taken during the drilling of frozen marine sediments in the area of the Barentsburg coal mine on the east...